2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Clayton Kershaw

No one would argue with you if you said that Clayton Kershaw was arguably the greatest pitcher to date of the 21^st century, or perhaps that some of us have seen in our lifetime. He’s won 14 or more games in six of the past eight years, posting a sub-3.00 ERA in each of those seasons. In fact, Kershaw has just one season (2008) above a 2.91 ERA.  The southpaw boasts a nasty 12-to-6 curveball, a sneaky good fastball and an incredibly effective slider that is arguably his best pitch. While we could go on and on about his accolades and prowess on the mount since the start of the 2009 season, his fantasy outlook for 2019 just might be the lowest it’s been in the past decade.

Kershaw is no longer the best starting pitcher in the fantasy game and by no means is he the clear-cut No. 1 player at his position. He has thrown 180 or more innings just once in the past five seasons. After posting a. 11.64 K/9 in 2015, that mark dropped down to 8.65 last season.

The dynamic of the league is shifting, and most starters aren’t going as deep into games, as managers are opting to head to the pen much quicker. However, there are bulldogs out there that will get their 200+ innings in a given season. Kershaw hasn’t eclipsed 200 innings since 2015. In fact, he hasn’t topped 175 innings since that year he logged 232.2 innings. Take a look at these staggering marks:

While the innings per starts may not be the most significant drop off – over half of an inning—the average innings per season decrease has been steep! His run from 2011-2015 was exceptional, sure, but his limited mound time over the past three years has been as disappointing as the 2011 to 2015 run was fantastic. The reason is simple for this: Injuries.

Kershaw never had a trip to the disabled list until the 2014 season. Kershaw is getting older and the injuries have begun to pile up, as you can see in the chart above. He’s spent time on the disabled list in four of the past five seasons and it’s worrisome that the injuries have been to his back and throwing arm. We can all agree that the back and arm are rather important in the delivery of the baseball to the plate effectively. Injuries remain a concern for Kershaw in 2019.

Have opponents caught up to Kershaw’s repertoire? It’s beginning to seem like it.

Over the last three years, as the opposition has hit 17, 16, and 45 points better against his fastball, slider and curveball compared to 2011-2015 respectively.

Since 2014, opponents swing percentage outside the zone has dropped nearly five percentage points.

His swing-and-miss rate in 2018 was 11 percent, the lowest mark in the past eight years.

His K/9 of 8.65 last season was the first time since 2013 he wasn’t striking out more than one batter per inning.

His walks are up, and his WAR has dropped each of the past three seasons.

His average fastball velocity last season was the lowest of his career, and nearly a two mile per hour decrease from the year before. Furthermore, Kershaw knows this, as he used his fastball less last season than he has ever before, and his slider usage jumped to the highest mark of his career.

Clayton Kershaw will likely still be drafted within the top 10 starters in most fantasy formats, and could possibly headline a fantasy pitching staff. However, the days of drafting Kershaw in the first, or even second, round are over, and he does not give you the advantage at the position he did in previous seasons. On a per inning basis, he’s still one of the better options in the game, but in a game where 200+ inning workhorses are few and far between, Kershaw falls a few notches.

Steamer projects Kershaw at a 13-8 record with a 3.23 ERA across 185 innings in 2019, not to mention a slightly increased K/9 (8.75). Those marks likely keep Kershaw out of the top 10 at his position this year.

Kershaw carries ample risk in 2019, and perhaps even more risk than he’s carried in recent years. Again, while he’s arguably been one of the best pitchers in baseball in recent memory, he’s no longer the difference-making, game-changing fantasy option of yesteryear.

If you draft Kershaw as your fantasy ace, you must invest in a strong second starter as well.