2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Jameson Taillon

Jameson Taillon ’s presence in the Pittsburgh rotation was delayed due to injuries in the minors, including missing all of the 2014 season with Tommy John surgery and then hernia surgery shortly after his return. Once in the big leagues, he missed six weeks in 2017 due to testicular cancer. It was far from the prototypical road for a second-overall selection, but he was able to make first extended run in the big leagues in 2018, as it was the first season since 2013 that Taillon hadn’t made an appearance on the disabled list.

At first glance, Taillon’s 2018 campaign looks like a decent season for a young pitcher in his 26-year-old season. He went 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA across 191 innings, making 32 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates. However, it was a tale of two halves for Taillon, whose second half breakout should have fantasy owners frothing at the mouth.

The first metric that certainly jumps off the board is the sharp decrease in Taillon’s ERA. His ERA dropped a full run and a half in the second half of the season. His FIP and xFIP remained closer to his season mark of 3.20, signifying there may have been some luck in the second half, but the minimal changes in slugging percentage, batting average against and BABIP negate some of those “all luck” sentiments.

Why the jump? What exactly occurred to make Taillon’s second half of 2018 so dominant?

Was it the fact that he got the opposition to chase out of the zone over one-third of the time?

Was it the fact that his swinging strike rate was nearly two and a half points higher than 2016 and 2017?

 Was it the fact that he generated more soft contact than 2017?

All of that certainly contributed, but there is one key factor that was instrumental to his success. That, my friends, was the implementation of a slider to his repertoire.

Taillon boasts a four-seam fastball, a sinking two-seam heater with life, a nasty curveball and a work-in-progress changeup. Those three pitches were the ones he threw exclusively in 2016 and 2017. However, around June of 2018, he fully incorporated a slider as more than just a “show-me” pitch, and ended up throwing it nearly 20 percent of the time.

Taillon’s slider generated a whiff 14.47 percent of the time, the best of any of his pitches. Additionally, his slider became his second-best ground ball pitch and he was able to pound the strike zone with that pitch. The implementation of his slider excelled, not only because the pitch was rather filthy, but it was another weapon the right-hander could use against the opposition. It was another pitch to which opposing hitters had to adjust. In the first half of the year, here were his marks against each of the pitches in his repertoire:

In the second half of the season, we some similar numbers, but some vastly different ones as well:

The biggest thing to take away from the two tables above is the fact that Taillon’s slider caused batters to struggle more against his fastball. Coming from the same arm slot, his slider looked identical to his fastball, just until the batter is about to swing, and then there was enough break on the slider to cause fits for the batter. Taillon’s slider may not move like Corey Kluber ’s or Clayton Kershaw ’s, but it has enough movement to be effective, and batters struggled last year to decipher whether it was the fastball or his new slider.

At time of writing, Taillon was inside the top 20 pitchers being drafted, near the likes of Stephen Strasburg , Jack Flaherty , Blake Treinen and Zack Greinke . Rightfully so, the right-hander will cost more draft capital than he has in recent years, and while he may not exactly replicate his numbers from his dazzling second half, it’s far more indicative, compared to the first half, of the pitcher he will be for years to come. Taillon will be an excellent SP2 this season, but has the makings to develop into a fantasy ace in his 27-year-old campaign.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net