2021 NFL Draft Guide Player Profiles: Jonnu Smith

During his time in Tennessee, tight end Jonnu Smith was a dynamic playmaker and one of the more efficient players at his position. He never amassed elite volume, which held him back from significant fantasy seasons. He posted a career year in 2020, where he had career highs in receptions (41), targets (65), receiving yards (448) and receiving touchdowns (8). It was a career year, which is encouraging, but outside of the touchdowns, the overall numbers weren’t very overwhelming. Playing in Tennessee, massive volume was never going to happen, but his efficiency and effectiveness on a per touch basis kept him on the fantasy radar and just outside the TE1 echelon. After finishing as the TE16 in PPR formats last year, and improving his overall rank each year, can he do it again in 2021 in his new digs?

Smith has gotten better each season, but still has yet to have a TE1 season, or a top 15 finish at the position (PPR formats) for that fact. He had seven or more targets in four games last year, which is fine, but seven games with four or less targets was less than ideal. Tennessee utilized him well, and the hope is that New England can, too. While he can make tough, contested catches if needed (career contested catch rate of 50 percent per Pro Football Focus), his skill set is better utilized by scheming him open and getting the ball to him in space. Since he entered the league, amongst tight ends with at least 100 receptions, only George Kittle has averaged more yards after the catch than Smith (6.96 YAC), per Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Furthermore, one of the more impressive things about Smith’s 2020 season is that he compared similarly in RACR, an efficiency stat, to the game’s best tight end.

Courtesy of RotoViz

RACR is more of an efficiency stat, whereas WOPR indicates a player’s opportunity. Of course, Kelce had a sky-high WOPR, given his role in the offense, but in terms of RACR, Smith was slightly more efficient there than Kelce. This does not mean that Smith would be better than Kelce if he had his volume, but it does mean that if Smith were able to pair above-average volume with his above average efficiency, he could be a dominant force in fantasy.

His efficiency allowed him to be one of the more over performing tight ends. Since the start of 2019, of tight ends that have at least 200 fantasy points (PPR), Smith has the sixth-highest FPOE, per RotoViz.

For one whole day, Smith was the unquestioned TE1 for the New England Patriots. In what felt like a blink of an eye, the Patriots also signed Hunter Henry, in hopes of restoring the two tight end system they had success with in the past.

Henry is coming from a more pass-happy Chargers team, while Smith comes from a Tennessee team that had a more comparable passing volume to the Patriots. The reason that I would rather have Smith compared to Henry is because to this point in their careers, Henry has relied on volume to be fantasy relevant, whereas Smith has relied on efficiency. Henry has largely underperformed expected fantasy totals, whereas Smith has over performed.

New England added a lot of weapons to help the passing attack, including making Smith the unquestioned TE1 for one day, but they aren’t going to turn into a pass-happy team overnight. They are still going to be run-heavy and figure to rank in the bottom third of the league in passing attempts. In 2020, the Patriots ranked 31st in total pass attempts and 30th in passing yards, per Pro Football Reference, and the tight end position accounted for just eight percent of the targets, per Sharp Football Stats.

Volume isn’t going to be there, and these two tight ends will take targets from one another. The target share will increase because the added talent of the position will command it, and well, it has to! However, they are going to eat into each other’s workload, and it could be tough for either of these two to put up a TE1 season. Only two tight ends last year (Gronkowski, Tonyan) posted a TE1 season (PPR formats) with a target share of 13 or less percent. The two needed a high touchdown total with extreme efficiency to get there.

If you feel compelled to take a New England tight end, Smith is the play over Henry. With the expectation that volume isn’t there, the more dynamic, efficient option has the higher upside, and that is Smith.

The transition will prove to be far more impactful for Henry, who needed 93 targets to be the TE12 last year. Smith needed just 61 targets to be the TE16. The gap between these two in terms of fantasy points was marginal, whereas the target numbers were not. Henry’s fantasy game has been buoyed by solid volume and touchdown totals, both of which could be hard to come by in 2021.

Smith is an athletic, playmaking tight end that can make things happen on his own. Touchdowns helped him last year in terms of his overall fantasy finish, but his efficiency on a per-touch basis makes him the more intriguing fantasy option in 2021 compared to Henry. You should still be careful of paying full price for Smith, but if you have to take a Patriots tight end, Smith is the better option.

Statistical Credits:

rotoviz.com

pro-football-reference.com

profootballfocus.com

sharpfootballstats.com