2021 NFL Draft Guide Player Profiles: Tyler Lockett

Seattle wide receiver Tyler Lockett continues to put up numbers. While fantasy owners may crave more consistency from the six-year professional, it’s hard to argue with the overall numbers. In 2020, his 132 targets and 100 receptions were both career highs, while his 1,054 yards fell just short of his 1,057 yards in 2019. He also posted double-digit touchdowns for the second time in three years, and his ten touchdowns tied his career-high. He’s increased his total fantasy production in each of the past four years, and he’s been inside the top 16 at his position in each of the past three years. Additionally, he has 28 touchdowns over the last three seasons, which is the fifth-most in the league during that span. It surely sounds like he should be going inside the top couple players at his position, but his inconsistency has him going at WR23, per NFFC data. Is the inconsistency worth it in 2021? Let’s examine.

Lockett had some monster games last season and had plenty of volume to be more consistent. However, the consistency wasn’t quite there yet again. We’ll come back to that. When looking at some of his numbers from last year, two things jumped out at me. The first was that his 1.66 yards per route run was his lowest mark since 2017, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Additionally, his 10.6 average depth of target (aDOT) was the lowest of his entire career. So, there had to be a small shift in where his targets were in relation to yardage downfield, correct? Yes, and then some. Dare I say, a seismic shift?

Courtesy of PFF

Drastic. From 2017-2019, at least 22 percent of his targets were 20+ yards downfield, but it dropped to just 12 percent in 2020. Additionally, nearly 60 percent of his targets were within nine yards of the line of scrimmage! If you include his targets behind the line of scrimmage as well, nearly two-thirds of his targets were within that part of the field. That was a far cry from where it had been in the previous three seasons. Now, if you’re an optimist, you’ll say that the large increase in targets will help elevate his floor, and can help add some stability to his fantasy game. Sure, there’s some merit to that, and he was effective on said targets last year, catching 33 of his 38 targets within ten yards of the line of scrimmage, per PFF.

He should maintain his high floor in terms of his touchdown totals, because he plays with the quarterback that has an affinity for throwing the ball to the end zone. No one does it more than Russell Wilson, and Wilson has 30+ touchdown passes in five of the past six seasons. So, it should come as no surprise that Lockett has ranked in the top five of wide receivers in end zone targets the past two years, coming in at third and fourth in 2020 and 2019 respectively. Touchdowns will be there for Lockett, and there’s zero doubt about that.

The biggest reason Lockett doesn’t find himself being drafted earlier is because consistency has eluded his game. Consistency within the fantasy realm, I should say. He was the WR8 in PPR last year, but he was a WR1 just five times out of 16 games, a WR1 or WR2 just six times, and he had seven contests with single-digit fantasy points. Consider this:

Courtesy of RotoViz

Just 19 fantasy points separated the four receivers, but at least Metcalf and Thielen finished within the top 24 players at the position half of the time last year. Inconsistent performances frustrate certain fantasy managers, and while his blow-up games are awesome, and fantasy dominant, if they don’t come when you need them, the numerous seven-or-eight-point fantasy afternoons are far more detrimental.

To show the disparity in his performances, take a look at Lockett’s fantasy numbers from the past three years with his three highest performing games removed.

Courtesy of RotoViz

The gap between his total points per game and his points per game with his outbursts removed is increasing. In each of the past two seasons, his three top performances resulted in 40 or more percent of his total fantasy output. While it’s great for a total fantasy point perspective, on a week-to-week basis, Lockett could actually be hurting your team, considering the fact that your WR1 or WR2 acted as such less than half of the time in 2020

I’m very excited to see Shane Waldron as the team’s offensive coordinator, and hopefully he can take some of what he learned during his time with Sean McVay in Los Angeles, and maybe add some stability and more reliability to Lockett’s fantasy game. Think of the fantasy people, Shane!

With Lockett being the 23rd wide receiver off the board, per NFFC data, you’re drafting him to be your WR2, or maybe even your WR1 if you attack other positions in the first handful of rounds of your draft(s). The risky thing is that Lockett will be your team’s WR2, but over the past three years, he’s been a WR1 just 13 times (27%), and he’s found himself outside of the WR2 range a whopping 60 percent of the time, per RotoViz.

It’s very hard to avoid Lockett, because his outbursts nearly assure you a win and he’s been a top 16 wide receiver each of the past three years. I’m not against drafting Lockett at all, and in fact, he’s one of the guys I target if I go after running back and tight end in the first three or four rounds. However, you must make a concerted effort to add reliable weapons around him, to help offset his week-to-week inconsistency.

You have two routes with Lockett in 2021:

1. Pair him with a week-to-week stud that can basically make up for Lockett’s inconsistent weeks
2. Wait and make Lockett your WR1, and rely on that massive upside with the addition of more week-to-week consistency, but come back behind him with reliable WR2’s and WR3’s. Yes, multiple.

Actually, there’s a third route, too. Just pray that his massive blow-ups come when you need them most, and his clunkers come when everyone else on your team dominates! Lockett has proven even with his consistent inconsistency to be a high-end WR2, with WR1 upside, and he’s currently priced as a low-end WR2. You must account for his inconsistency in redraft formats by adding some reliable receivers to your team, but in best ball formats, given his massive upside on any given week, he’s seriously undervalued.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
rotoviz.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football