2021 NFL Draft Guide Player Profiles: Mike Gesicki

Miami tight end Mike Gesicki enjoyed the beloved third year breakout. In 15 games, he caught 53 of 85 targets for 703 yards and six touchdowns. His reception, yardage and touchdown numbers were all career-bests. The flip-flopping at quarterback didn’t affect him too terribly much, as he posted a fantasy total within the top 24 at his position 75 percent of the time last year, per RotoViz. Now, outside of his big game against Buffalo in Week 2, it was a pretty slow start for Gesicki, as he topped 10 fantasy points just one other time through the first 11 weeks of the season. However, down the stretch, he was quite solid.

In PPR formats last year, Gesicki was the TE7 overall. Over the final six weeks of the year, he was the TE4 and averaged just under 16 fantasy points per game. Here is where Gesicki ranked amongst other tight ends with at least 50 targets on the year, per RotoViz:

• T-1st in air yards per target
• 3rd in air yards
• 3rd in AirYAC
• 4th in yards per reception
• 6th in yards per target
• 7th in WOPR

Gesicki was one of just five tight ends with at least 80 targets and 700 receiving yards in 2020, which is impressive in its own right. However, I’ll take it a step further. Of those five, only Kansas City’s Travis Kelce had a higher yards per reception mark than Gesicki, and only Darren Waller and Kelce had more air yards at the position, per RotoViz.

On a week-to-week basis, Gesicki has struggled with consistency in the early parts of his career. He had three big games that contributed to a good chunk of his fantasy points last year. His 20+ point performances in Week 2, Week 13 and Week 14 represented 46.7 percent of his total fantasy output for the entire year. Outside of those three games, he had just two games with double-digit fantasy points, and a whopping nine games with less than 10 points. 

Unlike 2020, he won’t have Ryan Fitzpatrick waiting to save Tua Tagovailoa after a rough day. How will Gesicki fare with a full year of Tua at the helm? Well, last year, in Chan Gailey’s offensive system, if you were starting Gesicki, you wanted Fitzpatrick under center, because he made it happen downfield.

Courtesy of Pro Football Reference

George Godsey and Eric Studesville will be co-offensive coordinators in 2021 for the Dolphins, and that should be an improvement compared to Chan Gailey, who had Tagovailoa on two sets of training wheels. Studesville has never been an offensive coordinator whereas Godsey was the offensive coordinator for Houston in 2015 and 2016, when Houston ran its infamous quarterback carousel in 2015, and then had the very tall and very bad Brock Osweiler in 2016. The passing yards weren’t there for Houston those years, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying, as they ranked ninth and 14th in passing attempts in 2015 and 2016 respectively. If Godsey led Houston to being league average in passing attempts with the horrendous Osweiler under center, what could be with Tagovailoa who has a decent arm?

For Gesicki’s sake, both C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin had 50+ catches that year for the Texans under Godsey, and Houston tight ends commanded a league-high 31 percent target share, per Sharp Football Stats. A good tight end in Godsey’s system can go a long way, especially with weapons on the outside, which Miami has.

Godsey and Studesville have to be an improvement upon Chan Gailey and Miami made a concerted effort to boost the weapons around its potential franchise quarterback. Targets will be tougher to come by for Gesicki in 2021, as the team signed Will Fuller in free agency and drafted Jaylen Waddle in the first round. Both of those receivers are far from safe bets though, as Fuller’s injury history is well-documented and Waddle is dealing with an ankle issue dating back to his time at Alabama.

Per NFFC data, Gesicki is the 12th tight end off the board and that's a great price point for him. Yes, competitions can be tougher to come by this year, but Godsey likes an athletic tight end, and the Miami receivers haven’t always exactly had a clean bill of health. He can very easily be your team’s TE1, but there might be some inconsistency in his performances over the course of the season.

Statistical Credits:

Rotoviz.com

Sharpfootballstats.com

Nfc.shgn.com/adp/football