Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence - Clemson - FD $10,100 - DK $9,000

Trevor Lawrence is even with Tua right now on Bovada at +250 to win the Heisman. It all starts Thursday night against Georgia Tech. Clemson is expected to blow the Yellow Jackets out, but with an implied total of just 46.5, it’s fair to expect Lawrence to play the entire game. In the past, you’d want to avoid offenses against GT. They ran the ball countless times a game and drowned out the clock. Georgia Tech will no longer run the ball every play, so you don’t have to worry about Clemson seeing limited opportunities. They’ve lost a few key starters and Lawrence shouldn’t have any problem passing for at least three touchdowns, with the upside for more. Your only real foe if you roster Trevor Lawrence is Travis Etienne. If Ettiene finds the endzone early a couple times, Clemson may just lean on the running game and Lawrence may not get around to the multiple touchdowns. I still lean on Lawrence being a phenomenal play in cash games. 

DraftKings Only

Justin McMillan - Tulane - FD $9,000 - DK - $5,700

Justin McMillan started the last six games of 2018 for Tulane and threw for 1,304 yards and 10 TD’s while running for 238 and five. He’ll be pushed by backup Keon Howard to perform, but looked awesome last season and won’t get tested if he can keep it up. McMillan is also getting an improved offensive line and an explosive transfer from Oklahoma State in wideout Jalen McCleskey. The run game is improved and the defense hasn’t gotten any worse. Tulane is looking to push towards a good bowl this season and it all starts Thursday night, where they’re favored by just two points. McMillan is insanely cheap on DraftKings and it’ll be tough for him to miss value. 

FanDuel Only

Dorian Thompson-Robinson - UCLA - FD $7,300 - DK $6,700

UCLA has officially named Dorian Thompson-Robinson the starter in week 1 at Cincinnati. Chip Kelly believes he’s turned a corner this year and has the capability to run his high-powered offense. He certainly has all the tools, listed at 6 foot 2’ - 200 pounds with a 4.7 40 yard time and an absolute rocket of an arm. He never quite put things together in 2018, failing to ever reach 300 yards in a game. If you believe Chip Kelly and think DTR has turned a corner, you know how explosive this scheme can be. The Cincinnati Bearcat defense ranked 11th in the FBS last season, and they’ll return all starting defensive backs and linebackers. The real intrigue with DTR comes in his price tag. On FanDuel, he’s just $7,300 and will help you pay up for a ton of weapons. You’ll see how valuable that becomes as we move along. The upside is there if DTR and the UCLA offense can turn things around, but he’s far from a guarantee on the road against a solid defense. 

Running Backs

Michael Warren II - Cincinatti -  FD $10,000 - DK $7,800

UCLA was dreadful against the run last season, ranking 100th in the nation with 199.4 rushing yards allowed per game. They now lose a couple starters on the front line and replace them with young and unproven prospects. Michael Warren II had a breakout 2018 season, running for 1,329 yards and a whopping 19 touchdowns. The Bearcats are going to feed Warren II all night long and 25+ touches is a real possibility. Cincy is projected to put up 31.5 points and Vegas thinks they’ll be playing with the lead. I’ll be taking a stand on Warren II with 100% exposure. 

Zack Moss - Utah - FD $9,200 - DK $7,200

Zack Moss is the focal point of this offense and it’s not hard to figure out why. He averaged 6.1 YPC and accounted for 1,096 yards and 10 touchdowns. He only caught five balls all season long, so that should tell you the style runner he is. He’s going to run between the tackles and he’s going to run with his head down. This BYU defense is strong, but they won’t be able to stop Moss from getting to 100 yards and two scores if Utah can take an early lead. Moss doesn’t have much upside in this low total game, but he’s an excellent cash game RB. He’s a bit cheaper than the other elite backs on both sites and will get as many touches as anyone. 

DraftKings Only

Eno Benjamin - Arizona State - DK $8,800

Arizona State is starting a true freshman in Jayden Daniels at quarterback, so it’s fair to expect the offense to run through Eno Benjamin early and often. He accounted for 1,642 rushing yards and another 263 through the air with 19 combined touchdowns. The Sun Devils hold a 42 projected total, and the spread isn’t high enough to expect the starters to come out of the game. Kent State is horrible on defense, ranking 120th out of 130 teams in total defense last season. They gave up over 500 yards a game and 220+ on the ground. The Sun Devils shouldn’t have any trouble putting up 40 points and Benjamin could see 30 touches. He’s my favorite running back play on DraftKings and a guy that’s hard to avoid in tournaments or cash games. He’s not too expensive and has a legitimate shot of scoring three times. All of these running backs seem to offer either upside or safety, but Benjamin breaks that mold and can be penciled into 20 fantasy points with the upside for 45. Don’t avoid Benjamin on DK.

Ty’Son Williams - BYU - DK $4,500 - FD $7,900

This match-up against the Utah Utes stout defensive front isn’t great, but Williams has been announced the starter for this game and he’s way too cheap on DraftKings. There isn’t much value at running back, and Williams has a great shot at finding the end zone. He’s transferred from South Carolina and has immediately taken the starting gig away from Lopini Katoa. You can ignore him on FanDuel as he’s too expensive, but the price on DK doesn’t ask for much and I don’t think his ownership will be over 10%.

Wide Receivers

Justyn Ross - Clemson - FD $9,400 - DK $7,900

Justyn Ross emerged in the College football playoffs last season, catching 12 passes for 301 yards and three scores. He surpassed Tee Higgins quite easily and it was obvious who Lawrence had the most chemistry with. I think Ross eventually asserts himself as one of the best receivers in the nation and a clear number one on Clemson. Ross is a lock to score with upside for so much more. I’ve seen plenty of folks ranking Higgins higher, and I’m firmly on the Ross wagon.

Darnell Mooney - Tulane - FD $8,600 - DK - $6,700

Darnell Mooney caught 48 balls for 983 yards and eight touchdowns in 2018. He’ll return this year with excellent QB-WR chemistry between him and McMillan. McMillan has history with Mooney, with him pulling in 300+ yards over the few weeks McMillan was at the helm. Tulane is expected to just slightly win this game, so it’ll stay competitive throughout and we’ll see four quarters of Mooney guaranteed. He’s the safest wide receiver option outside of Clemson. Jalen McCleskey will also get some attention for Tulane and I like him as well where he’s cheap. Justin McMillan is going to have a solid game and it’s a good idea to have him paired with a pass-catcher. 

Britain Covey - Utah - FD $8,100 - DK $4,400

Britain Covey changes the look of this offense entirely. The word out of Utah is that Covey is about 80%, but half of his skill set is better than these guys priced around him. Utah is playing Covey because they need him in this game. BYU is a good team and they’re a different animal at home. Utah has big plans this season and they can’t afford a week 1 loss. Covey is a solid target in both cash games and tournaments at his price on DraftKings. 

Joseph Ngata - Clemson  - FD $5,000 - DK $4,400

Joseph Ngata is officially listed as a backup WR, but he’s expected to see some playing time with the starters as the WR4. He’s also going to stay in the game if it’s a blowout and likely be the premier target. Ngata can play at two different positions as well, so he’s a versatile receiver that will be out there at least half the game. The risk is real here, but so is the upside. Ngata is a talented wideout that can go for 100+ yards given the opportunity. Diondre Overton is also way too cheap on DraftKings and hard to ignore in cash games.

 

Price Differentials that matter

-Will highlight players on FD and DK that are priced significantly different. 

DraftKings

Tyler Huntley - QB5 on FD ($9,100) - QB7 on DK ($6,200)

Justin McMillan - QB6 on FD ($9,000) - QB12 on DK ($5,700)

James Morgan - QB7 on FD ($8,600) - QB15 on DK ($5,400)

Ty’Son Williams - RB11 on FD ($7,900) - RB19 on DK ($4,500)

FanDuel

Dorian Thompson-Robinson - QB6 on DK (6,700) - QB10 on FD ($7,300)

 

FanDuel Lineup Examples

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DraftKings Lineup Examples

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The Betting Angle

Clemson (-36) vs Georgia Tech

The option offense is gone and the Yellow Jackets don’t have the personnel yet to transition to pro style. With them not running the clock out all game, it’ll give Clemson plenty of opportunities to put up points. Trevor Lawrence won’t come out of this game until they’re up by 40+, and I don’t think we see a full four quarters. Playing pro-style for the first time in 11 years seems like a bad time to face a defending champion Clemson squad. 

Utah (-5) @ BYU

I’m extremely high on the Utes this season, as I have them projected to win 11 games. Tyler Huntley is one of my favorite players in college football and I think he cements himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. He won’t put up flashy numbers as they Utes play slow, but he’s efficient and does exactly what this team needs on the ground. Zack Moss will do the rest and bring home a touchdown-sized victory at the very least.