Welcome back to our CFB picks and college football best bets for Saturday's Week 6 CFB schedule. We went 2-0 with last week's picks as Kentucky cam through on the moneyline and the USC vs Colorado matchup hit the over. Let's keep it going as we dive into the college football Week 6 odds. In this CFB best bets article, we'll start with the Maryland vs Ohio State matchup in the noon ET window. Then, we'll break down Washington State vs UCLA and Arkansas vs Ole Miss. Enjoy these CFB picks and college football predictions as you tune into the Week 6 games. Plus, keep an eye out for the CFB DFS Playbook for top Week 6 college football daily fantasy picks. Let's now get to the college football best bets and CFB betting picks for Saturday, October 7th.

If you want some more free CFB picks, check out the Bettor Sports Betting show from Thursday:

 

College Football Week 6 Best Bets 

Maryland at Ohio State

Saturday, 12 pm ET

This is one of three Week 6 matchups of undefeated teams as Maryland travels to Columbus to take on Ohio State. While both squads have perfect records thus far, Vegas has the Buckeyes favored by three touchdowns at home against the Terrapins. We’ll stay away from the spread and focus on the total as both offenses should keep this one higher-scoring. 

Ohio State is coming off its bye week and the offense will be looking to rebound from that Week 4 defensive slugfest against Notre Dame. The week off is crucial because it lessens any letdown potential for the Buckeyes after their emotional last-second road win vs the Irish. The bye also gave time for star WR Marvin Harrison Jr. to heal and rest after playing through an ankle injury last game. With him back closer to full strength, the Ohio State offense could put up a big number against an unproven Maryland defense and with QB Kyle McCord now playing with more confidence. 

The Buckeyes haven’t been exactly lighting up the scoreboard this season, but they’re still averaging 34.5 PPG and put up 63 against Western Kentucky just a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Maryland’s defense looks good on paper – allowing only 13.2 PPG – but it also hasn’t faced an explosive offense with multiple NFL-caliber playmakers like Ohio State’s yet. For comparison’s sake, here are the FBS offenses that the Terps have faced: Charlotte 18.4 PPG (124th in FBS), Virginia 21.4 PPG (107th), Michigan State 21.6 PPG (105th), Indiana 20.8 PPG (113th). This is a notable step up in competition. 

On the other side, Maryland could score its fair share of points too. Taulia Tagovailoa is one of the top quarterbacks in the Big Ten and won’t shy away from this road matchup. The Terps are averaging 38.6 PPG this year and just put up 44 points vs Indiana last week. Again, the competition hasn’t been too tough, but Tagovailoa has some talented pass-catchers at his disposal and could turn this game into a track meet. The Ohio State defense has looked very good so far but it also hasn’t faced many dangerous passing attacks like Maryland’s. 

Finally, the cherry on top for taking the over is the recent history of Maryland vs Ohio State games. Since the Terrapins joined the Big Ten in 2014, every meeting with the Buckeyes has been very high-scoring. All eight matchups have seen at least 65 combined points with an average total of 80 points. Ohio State is also averaging a whopping 57.4 PPG in the contests. Heck, in the last three matchups in Columbus, the Buckeyes have gone over this total on their own with team totals of 66, 73, and 62 points. 

PICK: Maryland-Ohio State OVER 56.5 (-110 on BetMGM)

Washington State at UCLA

Saturday, 3 pm ET

Washington State is one of the surprising lone undefeated teams this season. With wins over ranked Wisconsin and Oregon State squads, the Cougars have now climbed to No. 13 in this week’s AP Poll heading into a road matchup at UCLA. Interestingly, though, the Bruins are favored in this game and it presents a general principle betting situation for college football. 

If you read last week’s best bets article, you also cashed on unranked Kentucky beating Top 25 Florida as a home favorite. Well, we have a similar spot to back an unranked UCLA team as the slight favorite at home against a Top 25 program in Washington State. The spread doesn’t make complete sense when you look at the resumes, but Vegas is telling us which way to go here. 

Washington State’s offense is one of the best in the country thus far, led by darkhorse Heisman candidate Cameron Ward. The Cougars’ passing attack ranks second in the FBS with 406.0 yards per game. However, the UCLA pass defense has been strong this season while allowing just 186 passing yards per game (26th in FBS) with twice as many interceptions (6) than passing scores against (3). The Bruins’ defense overall is giving up only 11.0 PPG (6th-best in FBS) and just held Utah to one offensive touchdown last game. 

This will be a big test for UCLA’s secondary, which honestly hasn’t faced the toughest competition yet. But if it can slow down Ward and the passing attack, then it’ll force Washington State to rely more on the rushing game that’s been below average. The Bruins’ run defense, meanwhile, is allowing only 77.6 yards per game (11th in FBS) and 2.05 ypc (3rd-best). UCLA’s improvements on defense have coincided with new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn coming to town.

On the other side of the ball, the Bruins offense has looked much better with standout freshman Dante Moore under center. The highly-recruited quarterback is still going through growing pains, but he makes the UCLA offense much more dangerous from a passing perspective. Plus, the bye week should benefit Moore as he gets more comfortable with Chip Kelly's playbook. Moore and the Bruins’ strong run game can keep pace with Washington State here. The Cougars' defense just gave up 35 points to Oregon State last game as the Beavers ran for 242 yards and four TDs on the ground. UCLA’s talented rushing tandem of Carson Steele and TJ Harden can keep the pressure off of Moore and allow the Bruins to string together efficient drives. 

The final factor to consider is that Washington State will be playing its first road conference game all season. It benefited from home matchups against Wisconsin and Oregon State in the early weeks for its two toughest games so far. But the team has yet to go on the road in Pac-12 play. Though UCLA doesn’t have the toughest home crowd in college football, it’s still a slight advantage pushing us toward the favored team. You can take the Bruins on the spread, but the money line is the safer pick at slightly worse odds.

PICK: UCLA ML (-160 on Caesars)

Arkansas at Ole Miss 

Saturday, 7:30 pm ET

Anyone catch last week’s 55-49 shootout between LSU and Ole Miss? Defense was very much optional in that game and we should see something similar this weekend when the Rebels take on Arkansas. This may seem reactionary to back another high-scoring Ole Miss game, but plenty of trends and factors are pointing to the over again here. 

Arkansas’ defense was a glaring issue last season when it allowed 30.6 points (101st in FBS) and 464.8 total yards (124th) per game. As a result, the Razorbacks’ games went 10-3 to the over in 2022 with all four road games hitting the over. This year, we’re seeing a similar trend. Despite a change at defensive coordinator, things haven’t improved much on that side of the ball. Over the past three games against better competition, Arkansas’ defense is allowing an average of 35.3 points and 401.3 total yards per contest. The Razorbacks gave up 38 points to BYU and 34 to both LSU and Texas A&M in these past three weeks as well. In turn, they’re games are 4-1 to the over so far with the only lower-scoring outcome coming against a bad Kent State team that only scored six points. 

Now the shaky Arkansas D has to face a dangerous Ole Miss attack that just put up 55 points last week. The Rebels should do their thing at home, where they’ve scored 55, 48, and 73 points in three games in Oxford thus far. QB Jaxson Dart is playing well and the Ole Miss offense is getting healthier by the week. Receivers Tre Harris and Zakhari Franklin, tight end Caden Prieskorn, and stud running back Quinshon Judkins are all rounding into form after dealing with early-season injuries. Lane Kiffin has plenty of weapons in his arsenal and should exploit a Razorbacks defense that gave up 42 points and 703 total yards to the Rebels in last year’s matchup. 

Meanwhile, the Ole Miss defense is also a worry after just coughing up 49 points and 637 total yards to LSU. The Rebels hadn’t faced a high-powered offense until last week and the book might be out on how to target them. Tulane, Georgia Tech, and Alabama all put up 20+ points against Ole Miss in the previous three games. Tulane was playing with a backup quarterback, Georgia Tech is an average attack with SEC cast-off Haynes King under center, and Alabama’s offensive issues are well-documented to this point. 

The Arkansas offense is some high-scoring machine, but it can certainly put up points in this spot. With star RB Rahiem Sanders back healthy, this Razorbacks attack is much more dangerous. The rushing combination of Sanders and dual-threat QB KJ Jefferson can exploit the Rebels defense that’s struggled to stop the run, allowing 158 rushing yards per game against FBS competition so far – including 223 to LSU last game. 

PICK: Arkansas-Ole Miss OVER 63 (-110 on DraftKings)

Other CFB Week 6 Bets:

(from Thursday's Bettor Sports Betting show)

  • Notre Dame -6 (-110 DK)
  • Arizona State +4.5 (-110 DK)
  • Georgia Tech +21 (-110 Caesars)
  • Oklahoma/Texas 1st Half Under 30.5 (-115 FD)
  • LSU/Missouri Over 64.5 (-110 DK)