Welcome back to our CFB picks and college football best bets for Saturday's Week 5 CFB schedule. We went 2-0 with last week's picks and 7-0 combined with the Bettor Sports Betting show picks. Let's keep it going as we dive into the college football Week 5 odds. In this CFB best bets article, we'll start with the USC vs Colorado matchup as Caleb Williams takes on Deion Sanders' squad. Then, we'll give out Florida vs Kentucky predictions ahead of Saturday's SEC showdown. Enjoy these CFB picks and college football predictions as you tune into the Week 5 games. Plus, keep an eye out for the CFB DFS Playbook for top Week 5 college football daily fantasy picks. Let's now get to the college football best bets and CFB betting picks for Saturday, September 30th.

If you want some more free CFB picks, check out the Bettor Sports Betting show from Thursday:

 

College Football Week 5 Best Bets 

USC at Colorado

Saturday, 12 pm ET

The clock struck midnight on Colorado’s season last week when Oregon blew out Deion Sanders’ team, 42-6. If you watched the Bettor Sports Betting show, though, then that result shouldn’t come as a surprise. The Buffaloes get another high-profile matchup in Week 5 with USC coming to town. We’re staying away from the spread here and instead looking at the total. The over/under is set high, but we still have plenty of reasons to expect a shootout. 

USC has one of the most potent offenses in college football, averaging an FBS-best 55 points per game. Caleb Williams and the Trojans have scored at least 56 points in three of four games so far. They “only” scored 42 points last week but it came in a weird road matchup against Arizona State where the offense looked like it was sleepwalking half the time. You could also consider that game a potential lookahead spot to this week’s showdown with Colorado. 

As electric as Shadeur Sanders and the Buffs' offense can be, their defensive woes are very worrisome. Colorado is allowing 33.3 PPG (116th in FBS), including 35 to Colorado State and 42 to both TCU and Oregon. Last week, the Ducks scored 35 first-half points and then went on cruise control the rest of the way. When it wants to, the USC attack can run up the score and light up soft defenses deep into the second half with the potential for 60-70 points at its best. We have that possibility here against a poor Colorado defensive unit that lacks talent and real depth, especially with Travis Hunter out injured. 

The Trojans’ high-scoring offense is one of the main reasons why their games are 3-1 to the over thus far. However, the defense still has some issues that were evident last season and it’s allowing capable opponents to put up points. Arizona State and San Jose State both scored 28 against USC. The Colorado offense can certainly match that output and will be motivated to rebound from last week’s dud. We saw the Buffaloes score 45 against TCU, 36 against Nebraska, and 38 against Colorado State in the previous three games. 

The total is high, but we shouldn't be scared off. Colorado probably won't get many stops vs USC's offense, but Sanders can also do damage against a shaky Trojans defense. The over looks even better if you buy into the idea that USC and Lincoln Riley will be looking to pour on the points in the second half to make a statement against an overhyped Buffs team.

PICK: USC-Colorado Over 73.5 (-110 on DraftKings)

Florida at Kentucky

Saturday, 12 pm ET

As Scott Van Pelt would say, this is a General Principle Game. We have undefeated Kentucky as a home favorite against No. 22 Florida. You might think taking the Gators as underdogs is too good to pass up. Well, there’s a reason why Kentucky is favored here despite being the unranked team and hosting a Top 25 squad – and we’re following Vegas to the bank. 

This is Florida’s first road test since it lost 24-11 at Utah in the season opener. Since then, we’ve seen the Gators win easily against McNeese State, pull the home upset over Tennessee, and beat Charlotte by just 15 points last week. It’s been a hodge-podge of results from Florida and, honestly, it’s tough to truly put a stamp on this team going forward in SEC play. Overall, the Gators are 1-3 ATS this season and they’ve failed to cover as both underdogs and favorites. 

As for Kentucky, it’s coming off a 45-28 road win at Vanderbilt and covered as a 13-point favorite. The Wildcats really haven’t played anyone yet, but they have taken care of business against Vandy, Akron, and Ball State – going 3-0 ATS as sizable favorites in each. The competition definitely ramps up here with Florida coming to town. Still, those softer early-season opponents have given the ‘Cats time to work out the kinks on offense with transfer QB Devin Leary getting into a better rhythm with receivers. 

On that note, Kentucky has the clear quarterback advantage in this game with Leary being a tier above Florida’s Graham Mertz. That matters in this matchup where the Wildcats and Gators have comparable defenses so far while the offenses are both trying to find their identities. Plus, it’s likely going to be a lower-scoring, grind-it-out SEC battle with the total at 45 as of Thursday afternoon. 

Another interesting trend to know for this game is that Kentucky has now won two straight head-to-head matchups vs Florida, and three of the last five meetings. Before that, the Gators dominated the rivalry with 31 straight wins dating back to 1987. In the past half-decade, though, it seems the script has flipped over to the Wildcats as head coach Mark Stoops is making it more of a “rivalry.”

You can look at the spread here, but let's just stick to Kentucky on the money line. It should be a close game throughout and the Wildcats could win on a field goal late. 

PICK: Kentucky ML (-120 on BetMGM)

Other CFB Week 5 Bets:

(from Thursday's Bettor Sports Betting show)

  • Syracuse +6.5 (-105 FD)
  • Georgia -14 (-112 DK)
  • Iowa State +20.5 (-110 BetMGM)
  • Iowa -12.5 (-105 FD)