2023 College Football Week 4 Best Bets & CFB Betting Picks for Saturday, September 23
Welcome back to our CFB picks and college football best bets as we dive into the CFB Week 4 odds. This Saturday's college football Week 4 schedule is loaded up with marquee Top 25 matchups involving some top-tier teams. We have Florida State vs Clemson, Ohio State vs Notre Dame, Ole Miss vs Alabama, and UCLA vs Utah – just to name a few. In this CFB best bets article, let's look at the Iowa vs Penn State matchup and the Oklahoma vs Cincinnati game. Enjoy these CFB picks and college football predictions as you tune into the Week 4 games. Plus, keep an eye out for the CFB DFS Playbook for top Week 4 college football daily fantasy picks. Let's now get to the college football best bets and CFB betting picks for Saturday, September 23rd.
If you want some more free CFB picks, check out the Bettor Sports Betting show from this past Thursday:
College Football Week 4 Best Bets
Iowa at Penn State
Saturday, 7:30 pm ET
On a Saturday with tons of marquee matchups, this conference showdown between Penn State and Iowa will go overlooked. If you like classic Big Ten defensive battles, though, this is the game for you. The total is low, but we really shouldn’t bank on the Nittany Lions and Hawkeyes combining for 40+ points.
Iowa may be 3-0 so far, but the concerns on offense are still there. The ineptitude now dates back multiple seasons when the Hawkeyes averaged 23.4 PPG in 2021 (99th in FBS) and only 17.7 PPG last year (123rd). In Week 1, Iowa scored 24 points against a Utah State defense that gave up 39 to Air Force last week. Then it only mustered 20 points vs Iowa State. As for last week’s 41-point outburst, it’s misleading because A) that came against a terrible Western Michigan defense and B) Iowa was running up the score in the fourth quarter – likely to boost its season-long scoring average.
Now Iowa has to go on the road and take on a strong Penn State defense that’s already held West Virginia and Illinois to a combined 28 points. Those are two better offenses than the Hawkeyes and both failed to eclipse 20 points scored in their matchups vs PSU. To make matters worse, Iowa will now be without three notable playmakers vs Penn State. Running backs Kaleb Johnson and Jazuin Patterson are both out this week while stud tight end Luke Lachey is expected out for the rest of the season. The depth in the Iowa backfield is a concern as Johnson was Iowa’s leading rusher last year and Patterson was a key backup this season. As for Lachey, it’s a huge loss because he was arguably the Hawkeyes’ best offensive weapon and is the team’s leading pass-catcher this year.
On the other side, the Iowa defense is its clear strength and can also limit Penn State’s scoring here. The Hawkeyes are allowing just 12.3 PPG (18th in FBS) while holding all three opponents to 14 points or less. This is a continuation from last year when Iowa had the country’s second-best scoring defense (13.3 PPG allowed). Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions have looked good offensively with Drew Allar emerging as a potential Heisman darkhorse. In this matchup, though, expect PSU to lean more on the ground game with a strong backfield duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Iowa’s pass defense is legit and could force a turnover or two from the young Allar, so PSU may opt to be more conservative and limit the mistakes.
Penn State got its first real test last week and the game went under against Illinois. Meanwhile, Iowa is 2-1 to the under so far but that third game would’ve also ended up lower-scoring if the Hawkeyes actually took their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter of a blowout win. Last year, four of Iowa’s five road conference games featured 37 points or fewer. Bank on that trend continuing this week.
PICK: Iowa/Penn State UNDER 40 (-115 on FanDuel)
Oklahoma at Cincinnati
Saturday, 7:30 pm ET
Oklahoma is off to a strong start with a 3-0 record both SU and ATS. The Sooners also boast wins of 73 points and 49 points over Arkansas State and Tulsa, respectively. However, things get much tougher on the road to open conference play this week. Cincinnati will make its Big 12 debut and there’s value in grabbing the Bearcats as home underdogs of two touchdowns.
Cincinnati should come out motivated after losing in overtime last week to in-state rival Miami (OH). However, the Bearcats easily could’ve won but a blocked game-winning field goal and an interception in overtime did them in. Cincy also outgained Miami (OH), 538 to 358, and Emory Jones missed a sure-thing 70-yard touchdown pass before tossing a pick on the next play. Bank on the bounceback effort in front of a home crowd that’s getting a new taste of the Big 12.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, has yet to be truly tested this season and the market may be overvaluing a team that’s faced easy competition. The Sooners blew out cupcake opponents in Arkansas State and Tulsa as it should’ve. Back in Week 2, though, OU covered as 16-point favorites at home to SMU but the 28-11 final score looks better on paper than how the game actually played out. The Sooners only scored 14 first-half points and were winning by just four early in the fourth quarter. A late touchdown and an SMU interception allowed OU to cover the spread.
Cincinnati’s defense will be the toughest matchup so far for QB Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners offense. If the Bearcats can limit explosive plays, this should be a close game throughout. The Cincy offense is clicking right now with Florida and Arizona State transfer QB Emory Jones looking reborn in a system that favors his dual-threat skillset.
Cincinnati impressed with an outright road win at Pittsburgh two weeks ago, despite being a 6.5-point underdog. The Bearcats will also use their home-field advantage while facing an OU team that hasn’t played a true road game yet. History also doesn’t favor the Sooners here. Teams that have started 3-0 both SU and ATS have gone just 23-38-3 ATS (37.7%) as favorites of 14 points or more in their fourth game.
PICK: Cincinnati +14.5 (-110 on DraftKings)
Other CFB Week 4 Bets:
(from Thursday's Bettor Sports Betting show)
- Notre Dame +3.5 (-120 FD)
- Ole Miss-Alabama UNDER 55.5 (-115 FD)
- Oregon -20.5 (-115 BetMGM)
- Charlotte +28 (-110 DK)
- Army +13.5 (-115 BetMGM)
Player News
Austin Gomber allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits in 4 1/3 innings in a loss to the Reds on Sunday.
Gomber struck out three and walked two, and needed 90 pitches to get 13 outs. He posted just a 10 percent whiff rate and 21 percent CSW and should not be trusted in fantasy leagues.
Nick Martinez allowed two runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings in a win over the Rockies on Sunday.
Martinez struck out three and walked one on the day while registering a 15 percent whiff rate and 26 percent CSW. It wasn’t a dominant performance, but his slider missed bats, and his four-seam fastball was located well. The Rockies didn’t have a single extra-base hit on the day and only had one baserunner outside of the third and sixth innings. Martinez has a 4.78 ERA on the season and is just a streamer in fantasy leagues.
Daniel Palencia threw a scoreless ninth inning in a 4-1 win over the Yankees on Sunday.
The 25-year-old struck out one and didn’t allow a baserunner while securing his 12th save of the season. He’s been a really great story and a tremendous waiver add in fantasy leagues, but we would be shocked if the Cubs didn’t add a veteran closer at the trade deadline in hopes of cementing their status as World Series contenders.
Dansby Swanson went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run in a win over the Yankees on Sunday.
Swanson helped to break open the game with a 381-foot shot that left the bat at 103.1 mph for his 16th home run of the season. He also had a 104.3 mph lineout and a 95.4 mph single on the day. The shortstop is now 15-for-50 (.300) in July with two home runs, seven RBI, and nine runs scored. He probably doesn’t want to go on a four-day break.
Giancarlo Stanton went 1-for-3 with a solo home run in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday.
Stanton had one of the two Yankees hits on the day and their only run. He now has four home runs and 14 RBI in 21 games this season. He also continues to strike out over 30 percent of the time, as he has in basically every season since 2021. The Yankees continue to play him around four times a week, which makes it hard to roster him in weekly lineup leagues, but he has value in daily moves leagues or OPS leagues.
Will Warren allowed two runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday.
He also struck out just one while walking three and throwing 52 of his 88 pitches for strikes on the day. Warren didn’t have his best command on the day, posting just a 49 percent zone rate overall while inducing only seven whiffs on 43 swings for a 16 percent whiff rate and 18 percent CSW. The rookie will end the first half with a 4.63 ERA in 95 1/3 innings; however, his strikeout rate and 3.63 SIERA suggest that a better second half could be in order if he can continue to make his command more precise.