2023 College Football Week 1 Best Bets & CFB Betting Picks for Saturday, September 2
Week 1 of the 2023 NCAA college football season is in full swing and we have a whole day of games coming on Saturday. Let's take a look at the CFB best bets and college football Week 1 picks for some notable matchups this weekend. Our CFB Week 1 picks and college football best bets for Saturday features the Boise State vs Washington matchup. We also look at Coastal Carolina vs UCLA and Utah State vs Iowa. Enjoy these CFB picks and college football predictions as you tune into the games. Plus, keep an eye out for the CFB DFS Playbook for top Week 1 college football daily fantasy picks. Let's now get to the college football best bets and CFB betting picks for Saturday, September 2nd.
- Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
- This Season: 2-4
College Football Week 1 Best Bets & Picks
Coastal Carolina at UCLA
Saturday, 10:30 pm ET
For the first time in five years, UCLA will start a season without Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center. However, this quarterback changeover gives us a chance to back the Bruins in a unique way for Week 1. Head coach Chip Kelly has three viable options to start at QB this year and he’s said all three will get snaps in this season opener to keep the competition going. Ethan Garbers has been named the starter, but Kent State transfer Collin Schlee and true freshman Dante Moore will both play as well.
All three QBs should be motivated to ball out when in the game, especially Moore, who comes in with plenty of hype as one of UCLA’s highest-rated recruits in program history. Plus, Kelly’s offensive play-calling shouldn’t change in a garbage-time scenario because all three QBs are still fighting for the season-long starting job. Though the Bruins did lose other key offensive playmakers from last year (Zach Charbonnet, Jake Bobo, and Kazmeir Allen), they do bring in some talented transfers like RB Carson Steele, WR Kyle Ford, and WR J. Michael Sturdivant.
As for Coastal Carolina, there’s a slight changing-of-the-guard here with former NC State offensive coordinator Tim Beck in as head coach and Jamey Chadwell off to Liberty. The Chanticleers do bring back sleeper NFL Draft prospect Grayson McCall, but this will be a new offense for him. Beck rolls with a more traditional offense instead of Coastal’s triple-option tendencies of the past couple of years. That could take a game or two for McCall to get truly comfortable. The UCLA defense is also expected to be better than last season with some key transfers coming in and a new defensive coordinator.
Back the Bruins to cover here as the offense stays aggressive throughout the contest with all three QBs showing out. The Coastal defense has major question marks in the secondary, which is a big worry against Chip Kelly’s schemes. UCLA has also covered its past two season openers, both against Group of Five opponents (Hawaii and Bowling Green). Make it three straight this weekend.
Pick: UCLA -14.5 (-112 on FanDuel)
Utah State at Iowa
Saturday, 12 pm ET
Iowa’s offense was infamously low-scoring last season, averaging only 17.7 PPG last year (123rd in FBS) while scoring 25+ points in just three games. Despite the ugliness, let’s back the Hawkeyes to go over their team total in Week 1 for a few different reasons. First off, Iowa offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz has a new interesting contract situation that would ideally boost scoring this year. Ferentz accepted a salary cut and must reach a set of performance incentives to keep his job for 2024. One of those incentives is for the Hawkeyes to average 25 points per game this season. It’s a fairly low bar, but one that should impact this season opener.
This Week 1 matchup against Utah State will be a prime spot for Ferentz and the Iowa offense to get off to a strong start. The Hawkeyes only have two games against non-power conference opponents this season – and this is one of them. Their scoring should be more limited in a Big Ten schedule and against Iowa State next week. Some of the Hawkeyes' best chances at scoring semi-big totals will be here vs Utah State and in Week 3 vs Western Michigan.
Then we have to factor in Iowa bringing in Michigan transfer Cade McNamara as its new starting quarterback. Though McNamara lost his starting job to J.J. McCarthy last year, he’s still an upgrade for Iowa. The Hawkeyes suffered through poor QB play last year from Spencer Petras, who failed to eclipse 250 passing yards in any game. McNamara actually has some decent weapons at his disposal and should instantly improve the Iowa passing attack. It’s worth noting that McNamara is dealing with a leg injury, but he’s expected to play this week.
Iowa is favored big at home for this opener, but Ferentz should still be playing to score late even in a blowout situation. That contract incentive for a 25 PPG average is impossible to ignore and this home matchup against a Mountain West defense is a good opportunity to begin the season on a high note. The Aggies allowed 31.2 PPG last season (105th in FBS).
Pick: Iowa Team Total Over 33.5 (-115 on FanDuel)
Boise State at Washington
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET
Washington’s offense was one of the best in college football last year, averaging 39.7 points (7th in FBS) and 516.2 total yards (2nd) per game. The Huskies bring back nearly all of their top offensive playmakers, headlined by pre-season Heisman candidate Michael Penix Jr. He threw for over 4,600 yards with 31 TDs last season and should be one of the sport’s top passers again in 2023. The Huskies also boast one of the best WR groups in the country with Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja’Lynn Polk presenting weekly mismatches for opposing secondaries.
The Washington attack should start the season strong at home against a suspect defense. Boise State lost three of their top four tacklers from last year and has a particularly unproven linebacker unit. This defense could get carved up Penix in a similar fashion to the Huskies’ opening win over Kent State last season when they put up 45 points.
On the other side, the Boise State offense can put up a decent amount of points itself. When the Broncos made the switch to dual-threat QB Taylen Green as the starter last season, the offense was much more dangerous. When Green took over, Boise averaged 32.2 PPG over the final stretch of the regular season and in the bowl game. Green and this Broncos attack can exploit some weaknesses in the Washington defense. The Huskies lost two of their top three tacklers from last year and are dealing with notable inexperience in the secondary. This defense allowed multiple teams to hang around a year ago and didn’t get better on paper.
So both offenses should make this game higher-scoring. We also have some key trends to follow when looking back at last season. Washington was 8-4-1 to the over in 2022, including the over cashing in all three non-conference games to begin the year. Boise State was 6-4 to the over in its final 10 games once Taylen Green was running the offense.
Pick: Boise State-Washington OVER 58.5
Player News
ESPN’s Shams Charania reports Duncan Robinson has exercised his early termination option and will be an unrestricted free agent.
Robinson possessed an early termination option worth $20 million. While the decision to exercise it will make the Heat guard an unrestricted free agent, it’s been reported that the door is not closed on a return. Charania says Robinson will work with the Heat on a new deal. While he can provide points and three-pointers, Robinson has primarily been a specialist in category leagues. That’s unlikely to change next season, regardless of where he signs.
Otto Lopez is at shortstop and leading off on Sunday against the Diamondbacks.
Lopez has been bumped to the top of Miami’s lineup to face Arizona lefty Eduardo Rodriguez with Xavier Edwards and Jesús Sánchez on the bench. The 26-year-old middle infielder has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball in recent days, batting an astronomical .448 (13-for-29) with two homers and 13 RBI over his last seven contests.
Mike Trout is not in the lineup for Sunday’s series finale against the Nationals.
Trout gets his first day off since June 1 after launching a solo homer during Saturday’s one-sided win over the Nationals. The 33-year-old future Hall of Famer hasn’t experienced any issues with his surgically-repaired knee since coming back from the injured list, but the Angels have strictly limited him to DH in an effort to preserve his long-term health.
Zach Neto (shoulder) remains out of the lineup for Sunday’s series finale against the Nationals.
There’s been no indication that Neto will require a trip to the injured list, and he’s been able to come off the bench to pinch-hit in each of the previous two games, but the Angels are going to give him some extra time off to rest and recover with Monday’s off-day looming. It’ll be veteran Kevin Newman handling shortstop in his absence. The 24-year-old shortstop figures to be ready for Tuesday’s series opener against Atlanta at Truist Park.
Dennis Santana will begin serving a three-game suspension on Sunday against the Mets.
Santana was handed a four-game suspension, which was reduced on appeal, by the league earlier this month for his conduct towards a fan back on June 19.
Gabriel Arias was removed from Sunday’s game against the Cardinals with a left ankle sprain.
It’s an encouraging initial diagnosis after Arias was carted off the field during the third inning of Sunday afternoon’s contest when he left ankle rolled up underneath his body while attempting to make a sliding play to his right. It seems like a virtual lock that he’ll wind up requiring a trip to the injured list, even if the sprain winds up being on the milder end of the spectrum. It’s worth noting that X-rays came back negative for any fractures. There should be some additional clarity on his status at some in the near future.