The 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket will be in our hands in less than a week, so it's time to get prepared for March Madness! Let's take a look at some college basketball teams who might be No. 1 or 2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament but can still make a run to the Final Four. If you missed it, check out our top March Madness Final Four contenders before you dive into this article. Below, we'll focus on teams like Marquette, Indiana, Gonzaga, and Kansas State – teams that will be No. 3 seed or below but could easily be that dark horse Final Four contender you choose in your NCAA Tournament bracket pools. Note that the college basketball rankings, projected seeds, records, and CBB stats referenced below are as of Monday, March 6th. The relevant rankings are also as of March 6th and include the NCAA Men's Basketball NET Rankings, KenPom.com's College Basketball Ratings, ESPN's College Basketball Power Index (BPI), and BartTorvik.com's rankings. The odds to reach the NCAA Tournament Final Four are via DraftKings Sportsbook. 

 

2023 NCAA Tournament March Madness Final Four Dark Horse Contenders

Gonzaga Bulldogs

  • Projected Seed: 3
  • Record: 24-5 (13-2 in West Coast Conf.)
  • Rankings: 9th in NET, 10th in KenPom, 8th in BPI, 10th in Torvik
  • Best Wins: Alabama, Xavier, Michigan State, Kentucky
  • Notable Losses: Purdue, Texas, Baylor, Saint Mary’s
  • Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: 2022 – Sweet Sixteen loss to Arkansas as No. 1 seed
  • Odds to Reach Final Four: +450

Is Gonzaga really flying under the radar this season? Well, it depends on how you define “under the radar.” On one hand, the Zags aren’t the same clear-cut No. 1 seed and top-5 team that it’s been in the past handful of seasons. Their five regular-season losses are actually their most since 2016 and the Bulldogs even lost at home to Loyola Marymount, breaking a ridiculous 75-game home winning streak. At the same time, head coach Mark Few’s team is 21-2 since early December and boasts the best offense in college basketball (per KenPom metrics). The Zags also still have one of the sport’s elite players in center Drew Timme with a ton of talent around him – including Julian Strawther, Anton Watson, and Rasir Bolton bringing experience from last year’s top-ranked team. It’s fair to wonder whether Gonzaga will slip up in the Tournament yet again, but this year’s squad could easily make a run to the Final Four without the same pressure as previous seasons. The Zags will benefit from a stacked non-conference schedule that included matchups against premier programs like Alabama, Purdue, Texas, Baylor, Xavier, Kentucky, and Michigan State.

Marquette Golden Eagles

  • Projected Seed: 3
  • Record: 25-6 (17-3 in Big East)
  • Rankings: 13th in NET, 13th in KenPom, 16th in BPI, 15th in Torvik
  • Best Wins: Baylor, Connecticut, Creighton (twice), Xavier
  • Notable Losses: Purdue, Connecticut, Xavier, Mississippi State, Wisconsin
  • Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: 2022 – 1st Round loss to North Carolina as No. 9 seed
  • Odds to Reach Final Four: +700

Marquette was picked to finish ninth in the Big East back in the preseason, but it’s vastly exceeded expectations this year. Head coach Shaka Smart led the Golden Eagles to their first-ever Big East regular season title in just his second year on campus. Marquette has one of the best offenses in college basketball, fourth-best according to KenPom.com, and can score with any team in the country. The defense is a slight concern and could make Smart’s squad susceptible to an upset. Still, the high-scoring offense is legit and point guard Tyler Kolek is a wizard running the attack as arguably the Big East Player of the Year. Marquette also has a talented frontcourt duo of Oso Ighodaro and Olivier-Maxence Prosper, not to mention guard Kam Jones who's a viable second offensive playmaker next to Kolek. This team will be dangerous in the bracket because of its daily ability to put up 85-90 points. Don’t forget that Smart led an unknown No. 11 seed VCU team to the Final Four back in 2011 – so he knows what it takes to make a deep March Madness run. 

Indiana Hoosiers

  • Projected Seed: 4
  • Record: 21-10 (12-8 in Big Ten)
  • Rankings: 29th in NET, 30th in KenPom, 19th in BPI, 31st in Torvik
  • Best Wins: Purdue (twice), Xavier, Illinois (twice), Michigan State, Rutgers, North Carolina
  • Notable Losses: Kansas, Arizona, Maryland, Michigan State, Iowa (twice), Northwestern (twice)
  • Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: 2022 – 1st Round loss to Saint Mary’s as No. 12 seed
  • Odds to Reach Final Four: +700

Back in mid-January, Indiana’s season was trending in the wrong direction with a 10-6 record and a 1-4 mark in Big Ten play. Since then, though, the Hoosiers have looked like one of the best teams in the country at their best. The past month has been highlighted by a pair of wins over Purdue, in which Mike Woodson’s team put up 79 points in both victories over the conference’s top squad. Veteran center Trayce Jackson-Davis is the star of the show as an All-American candidate and likely National Player of the Year runner-up to Purdue’s Zach Edey. The Hoosiers are also led by freshman stud Jalen Hood-Schifino, whose NBA-caliber talent has been on full display during this late-season surge. Jackson-Davis and Hood-Schifino are as good of a one-two punch as any in college basketball this year and anchor Indiana’s top-30 offense. 

 

Creighton Bluejays

  • Projected Seed: 6
  • Record: 20-11 (14-6 in Big East)
  • Rankings: 14th in NET, 12th in KenPom, 10th in BPI, 12th in Torvik
  • Best Wins: Connecticut, Arkansas, Xavier, Providence, Texas Tech
  • Notable Losses: Texas, Arizona, Connecticut, Marquette (twice), Xavier, Providence
  • Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: 2022 – 2nd Round loss to Kansas as No. 9 seed
  • Odds to Reach Final Four: +700

Creighton will be one of those college basketball teams that will likely be seeded worse than its actual talent level. All of the advanced computer metrics and predictive analytics have the Bluejays as a top-20 team in the country, though they might be a No. 5 or 6 seed on Selection Sunday. Head coach Greg McDermott’s squad won a game in the NCAA Tournament last year as a No. 9 seed and could’ve gone deeper if not for injuries to point guard Ryan Nembhard and center Ryan Kalkbrenner. Those two are back and anchoring one of the best starting fives in the sport with transfer wing Baylor Scheierman, sophomore guard Trey Alexander, and sophomore forward Arthur Kaluma. Overall, Creighton boasts a top-10 defense and a top-30 offense (per KenPom) and should be considered a better team than their current seed line indicates.

TCU Horned Frogs

  • Projected Seed: 5
  • Record: 20-11 (9-9 in Big 12)
  • Rankings: 28th in NET, 25th in KenPom, 29th in BPI, 24th in Torvik
  • Best Wins: Texas, Kansas, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa, Providence
  • Notable Losses: Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Iowa State (twice), Kansas State, Mississippi State
  • Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: 2022 – 2nd Round loss to Arizona as No. 9 seed
  • Odds to Reach Final Four: +700

The Big 12 is packed with teams that can string together wins and make a Final Four – and TCU is one of those. A 20-11 record in the regular season and a 9-9 mark in Big 12 play aren't flashy on the surface, but the Horned Frogs should be viewed in a more positive light than those win-loss records suggest. Junior guard Mike Miles missed time with an injury and TCU lost a slew of games because of his absence. TCU went 17-5 with him healthy this season and he’s been back in the lineup over the past few weeks. The Horned Frogs beat Texas and played Kansas tough with Miles at full strength now. TCU also has another talented guard in Damion Baugh, who provides a nice 1-2 punch in the backcourt. This team nearly pulled off a second-round upset of top-seeded Arizona last year and they'll be poised to go deeper this March. Head coach Jamie Dixon has had plenty of Tournament experience over his career too. 

Kansas State Wildcats

  • Projected Seed: 3
  • Record: 23-8 (11-7 in Big 12)
  • Rankings: 17th in NET, 18th in KenPom, 28th in BPI, 21st in Torvik
  • Best Wins: Kansas, Texas, Baylor (twice), TCU, Iowa State
  • Notable Losses: Kansas, Texas, TCU, Iowa State
  • Last NCAA Tournament Appearance: 2019 – 1st Round loss to UC Irvine as No. 4 seed
  • Odds to Reach Final Four: +750

Kansas State is one of the best stories in college basketball this season. The Wildcats were the laughingstock of the Big 12 as recently as two seasons ago and were a sub-.500 team just last year. No one’s laughing now, though, with first-year head coach Jerome Tang in town. The former longtime Baylor assistant has completely flipped the program overnight with Kansas State proving it can hang with the top dogs of the loaded Big 12 conference. The ‘Cats are led by dynamic senior point guard Markquis Nowell and senior wing Keyontae Johnson, who was one of the SEC’s best players at Florida just a few seasons ago. That duo headlines a team that’s filled with transfers who’ve carved out key roles at K-State. The Wildcats will be a dangerous team in March as they've already proven capable of beating the top teams in the stacked Big 12. 

 

Check out our list of the best, and most trusted sports betting and fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state.

If you missed it, check out our top March Madness Final Four contenders for the 2023 NCAA Tournament. If you want more College Basketball content, check out our CBB DFS picks and lineup advice from Dan Servodidio and Pete Cole.