While it’s one of the most integral pieces to winning a fantasy football championship, waiver wire strategy always seems to be dismissed. Given its importance, it’s difficult to understand why. Maybe because it’s so basic to some – you pick up players you want, you drop the ones you don’t. Maybe people don’t understand that a well-thought out plan for adding and dropping players is important. Maybe some just don’t care. Whatever the case may be, true champions know, whether you’re talking about first-come, first-served, a waiver priority system or FAAB bidding, having a firm understanding of your league’s waiver wire system is one of the keys to your success.
Before we start talking strategies and tips, let’s go over the primary forms of waiver acquisitions.
First-Come, First-Served – This free-for-all waiver system is pure trash. Total amateur hour. You can pick up players daily and the only strategy to be implemented is be the first one to add the guy. The reason it’s garbage is because this obviously favors those who are in front of a computer 24/7 or have absolutely nothing else going on in their lives. If a player gets hurt in the middle of the game, they immediately grab the replacement. If news breaks that the coach is making a change in the backfield, they are on top of it. There are even people who will wait up until three or four in the morning so they can be the first to grab a player when the web site rolls overs. If your job doesn’t require you to sit at a desk all day, how are you expected to compete? If you’re getting married and your player gets hurt while you’re at your wedding, how are you expected to compete? If your league uses this method for acquiring players, you need to petition your commissioner to make the change. Or just find a new league.
Waiver Priority – This is a pretty basic system. Teams are assigned a priority number and submit their claims to the system. The web site then awards players based on the higher priority of the claiming teams. If one team has the No. 1 priority, another team has No. 3 and both put in a claim for the same player, the team with the No. 1 priority is awarded that player. That team’s priority number then goes to 12 (if a 12-team league, obviously) while everyone else moves up one spot. The process repeats as such until all claims are processed for the week. The one thing you will need to check for your specific league is whether the waiver order resets for the new week. Some systems re-order teams for each new waiver period so the team with the worst record or lowest points total ends up first at the start of each period. The overall system isn’t great to begin with, but if it’s forced on you, at least let it be without the re-order. No reason to try and shove waiver parity down our throats.
FAAB Bidding – This is the most-favored system, at least by those in the fantasy sports industry. Teams are given a budget – sometimes it’s $100 for the year, sometimes it’s $1,000 – and they submit blind-bids for players. When waivers are processed, if you are the highest bidder, you are awarded the player. If teams tie, the team with the worse record/lower points total, wins the tiebreaker. It is this system in which strategy is of the utmost of importance. Some like to be aggressive early and spend big bucks while some hoard their FAAB dollars so they have enough left for potential mid-season injuries. We’ll cover that angle in a little bit. For now, we’re just identifying systems and understanding when claims are processed. Are your waivers once-a-week? Twice? If just once, does free agency open up to first come, first served afterwards? These are questions you need to ask ahead of time, so make sure you give a full read to those league rules.
Waiver Strategies
Timing is Everything
If your league does a first-come, first-served system, then you need to do one very important thing. Make sure you have the right app installed on your phone. Either that or make sure you have your league’s free agent list page bookmarked on your phone’s internet browser. You’re going to need quick access at all times. As soon as you hear news or rumors, you better jump on it immediately, especially if the player has some promise or has been getting some recent buzz.
If your league uses a priority system, the sense of urgency is only needed if, after waivers are processed, it opens up into a first-come, first-served system. If it does, then make sure you know at exactly what time waivers are processed and when the free-for-all opens. It usually happens when the site updates which tends to come around three or four in the morning (eastern time). Smart commissioners will set a specific time for the free-for-all so that players on either coast don’t have any advantage. Imagine going to sleep at 11pm, waking up at 6am and seeing a whole mess of players taken off the free agent list while you were sleeping. Just keep in mind that not every commissioner thinks about this and it is likely something you will have to request at the start of the season if you have owners living in different time zones.
Be Aggressive Early
Obviously, for first-come, first-served, aggression is your ally, but for waiver priority, it’s just as important. Some people like to obtain the No. 1 waiver priority and then sit on it until a specific player they covet is available. It’s an understandable strategy, but for the start of the season, you need to be aggressive with your waiver claims. Injuries are abundant to open the year, job battles are still won and lost and coaches are still making decisions as to which plays work best and who should be touching the ball the most. Hoarding your priority in the early part of the season will have you missing out on players who may be able to help you win a title.
Be Proactive
If you want to get a jump on the rest of your competition, you need to plan some things out. If you see the potential for a running back to overtake the incumbent, then add that guy. At worst, it doesn’t happen and you swap him out for someone else. At best, you just landed a guy in Week 4 who blows up for your team in Week 8 and carries you to a championship. Speculative adds are a must, but not at the expense of a productive player. Be careful with that. Being proactive is huge, but you don’t want to look so far into the future that you kill yourself in the present.
Stop Chasing Last Week’s Numbers
How many times have you seen someone drop a bench player for the Flavor of the Week only to watch their new acquisition stink it up while the player dropped goes bananacakes the next time he’s on the field? Then, the owner drops the player they just added for the next hot hand and the process just repeats. If you’re adding a player, you have to give him some time before declaring him a bust. Rotating the Flavor of the Week is only going to put you behind because you’re too busy lamenting over the points you didn’t get the week before..
Make Claims with Purpose
Far too many people make haphazard roster moves and their bench is a veritable revolving door all season. That’s fine if you’re doing it to be proactive with your roster, but don’t make moves just for the sake of making moves. If you have a need, then you make a claim. If there’s no one on the wire who you think is better than who you have, then don’t make a move. It’s really as simple as that.
FAAB Strategies
Avoid Round Numbers
In a blind-bid, every dollar counts. If you have $1,000 to spend and you think a player is worth $100, you’re going to need to go the extra few dollars if you really want him. Bids of $101 or $106 are much more likely to win a player than just throwing in the round number. This usually reduces the risk of a tie and potential loss of the player if your team is doing better than your competition’s.
Think Percentages Over Actual Dollars
While it’s easy to say you’re willing to bid $50 on a guy, the real question is how much of that $50 is your remaining budget? Is it half? A quarter? You should always look at a player and think about what percentage of your remaining budget you should use rather than an actual dollar figure. A web site might tell you to bid $20 on a player, but if you have a $100 budget and already spent half of it, that $20 is actually 40-percent of your budget. Is the player really worth almost half your remaining FAAB dollars? If it’s late November, well then maybe. If it’s early October, you might want to consider a lower bid or alternative player.
Keep a FAAB log
This is a hardcore move. Yes, the web sites keep track of all the FAAB bidding, but there’s something different about having your own sheet in the order you want it and entering the numbers yourself each week. You’re not logging names. You’re logging positions and bids. Who spends the most on wide receivers? Does he need a starter this week? How many owners are rotating defenses? You’ve spent more on tight ends in the first month of the season than any other position. Maybe it’s time to trade for someone more permanent so you can shuffle your FAAB dollars for a better quarterback? The knowledge you accumulate on every team and every owner is immeasurable and if you do this in a keeper league that traditionally retains its ownership numbers, you’ll crush them in drafts too because you already know their tendencies.
Be Aggressive Early But Always Save for the Rainy Day
At the start of each season, I automatically commit 20-percent of my FAAB budget to “untouchable until Week 8.” You always want to have something for the trade deadline and for when late-season injuries often occur. The other 80-percent, I have two months to spend it and I don’t care if I do it in two weeks. I try not to blow it all at once, but I do suggest being aggressive early on. Maybe there are guys who won jobs out of training camp who went undrafted in your league. You want to grab the full-timers. There are also plenty of situations that aren’t fully decided until Week 4 or 5. Some coaches want a bell-cow and have to wait to see who in their backfield truly is capable. You can build up your bench nicely this way so that when the injury bug takes a bite of your ass, you have full-timers to plug in. Get ‘em while you can.
Be THAT guy
Never take a week off. Big weekend plans for Halloween Weekend? Going to see Phish in Vegas? Make sure you have internet access and set aside an hour on Sunday to catch up on the news and formulate a waiver plan for Tuesday. Thanksgiving at the in-laws? Don’t forget about your research. Got your niece’s Bat Mitvah next week? Take a moment away from the Hora and check your waiver wire. Holidays, long weekends and special occasions are an absolute killer. You miss a week, you fall behind. If you miss a crucial week when the wire is flush with strong value, you’re playing from way behind. If you know of these plans ahead of time, set yourself one hour aside to make sure you cover it. Those of you in multiple leagues will appreciate this in the end.