We have an interesting card for UFC On ESPN 4. Two hopeful contenders meet at welterweight in the main event between Leon Edwards and Rafael dos Santos. There's some fighter's with a shot to end things quickly with some heavyweights on the card as well. One of Greg Hardy or Juan Adams is likely to have an early night. 

 Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITDBreakDown
Main Event
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Leon Edwards
7900/8300
-
Stackability: Safe
105/ -125
354/325
I'll stop short of saying Edwards dodges people but his opponents are carefully selected. He can probably decision RDA in this main event. Edwards has some risk, since in a slower paced loss he wouldn't score well. Coming off a win, I think ownership on RDA will be high. An okay cash stack but not essential.
        
Expensive
Ray Borg9300Gabriel SilvaSafe-210+325We aren't sure what Ray Borg we're getting. He should be dominating UFC newcomers but his life has been turbulant with a child who has medical needs. Hopefully we get the best version of Borg and his volume wrestling pays off this price tag.
Jinsoo Son9100Mario BautistaSomewhat-Safe-190+200The case for Jin Soo is how competitive his fight with Petr Yan was. Yan is suddenly a contender so hanging with him for three rounds says something.
Domingo Pilarte9400Felipe ColaresModerate-340+145Pilarte is a bit of an unknown. Vegas placing this much faith in him says something.
Ben Rothwell9000Andrei ArlovskiModerate-185+160Rothwell is far past his prime at this point. He's still a heavyweight and a hard hitter at that, though. We haven't seen Arlovski's chin tested in a bit.
        
Mid-Range
Walt Harris8700Aleksei OleinikSomewhat-Safe-155-110Harris is too long and too athletic for Olenik's tricks. His devastating power should lead to the old man taking a canvas nap.
Juan Adams8100Greg HardySomewhat-Safe-115+140This is an either/or proposition. Either Adams breaks out the wrestling and embarasses Hardy.
Greg Hardy8100Juan AdamsModerate-105+135Or Hardy catches Adams early and knocks him out.
Dan Hooker8500James VickModerate-140+154Hooker has exactly the kind of pressure striking that has been the answer key to Vick's outside striking.
Irene Aldana8400Raquel PenningtonSomewhat-Risky-140+380She's a long, volume striker, getting her biggest test to date. Penningtion may be a shell of her former self after the beating Nunes laid on her.
Alexander Hernandez8900Francisco TrinaldoSomewhat-Risky-200+169The pressure Hernandez brings is hard for most fighters to disect.
Alex Caceres8800Steven PetersonSomewhat-Risky-125+300Caceres reach is probably enough to sit behind against a plodder like Peterson.
Klidson Abreu8600Sam AlveyRisky-170+154If you can avoid Alvey's hard left hook he's not a difficult puzzle to solve.
        
Pay-Downs
Francisco Trinaldo7300Alexander HernandezModerate+170+440Most fighters look to avoid exchanging with Trinaldo. Hernandez is likely to bring the fight to him though.
Raquel Pennington7800Irene AldanaModerate+120+580She's beaten better fighters than Aldana. We just aren't sure what Rocky has left after going too many rounds with Nunes.
Steven Peterson7400Alex CaceresSomewhat-Risky+105+375He's a punching bag, but one that keeps coming forward.
Aleksei Oleinik7500Walt HarrisSomewhat-Risky+135+165The old Russian has a bear trap and if you get caught in a submission you're going to sleep.
James Vick7400Dan HookerRisky+120+320Vick's always a threat to use his reach to out-point his opponent if they can't get inside.
Sam Alvey6800Klidson AbreuRisky+150+320Sometimes green fighter's walk into his powerful left hand.
Mario Bautista7100Jinsoo SonRisky+165+525We've seen plenty of fighters with less exposure come in as big favorites and drop the fight lately.
Felipe Colares6800Dom PilarteHigh Risk+280+565Again, Vegas is placing a lot of faith in a relative unknown to beat another relative unknown. 

 

TOP BETS

Walt Harris -155

Francisco Trinaldo +170

Dan Hooker +154 ITD

 

Example Lineups

Cash Example Lineups
  
GPP Example Lineup
 
FighterPrice FighterPrice
Alex Caceres$8,800 Jinsoo Son$9,100
Leon Edwards$8,300 Walt Harris$8,700
Rafael Dos Anjos$7,900 Irene Aldana$8,400
Andrei Arlovski$7,200 Juan Adams$8,100
Ray Borg$9,300 Francisco Trinaldo$7,300
Dan Hooker$8,500 Roxanne Modafferi$8,000

 

Picks Breakdown

Rafael Dos AnjosvsLeon Edwards
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 29-11-0RecordRecord: 17-3-0
5 KO/TKO (17%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (35%)
10 SUBMISSIONS (34%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (18%)
+105Vegas Odds-125
4/10Lineup Pool5/10

 

Aleksei OleinikvsWalt Harris
$7,500DFS Salary$8,700
Record: 57-12-1RecordRecord: 12-7-0 (1 NC)
8 KO/TKO (14%)Knockouts12 KO/TKO (100%)
45 SUBMISSIONS (79%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
+135Vegas Odds-155
2/10Lineup Pool6/10

 

Greg HardyvsJuan Adams
$8,100DFS Salary$8,100
Record: 4-1-0RecordRecord: 5-1-0
4 KO/TKO (100%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (100%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-105Vegas Odds-115
3/10Lineup Pool5/10

 

James VickvsDan Hooker
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 13-3-0RecordRecord: 18-8-0
3 KO/TKO (23%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (53%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (38%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (41%)
+120Vegas Odds-140
4/10Lineup Pool2/10

 

Alexander HernandezvsFrancisco Trinaldo
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 10-2-0RecordRecord: 23-6-0
4 KO/TKO (40%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (35%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (20%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (22%)
-200Vegas Odds+170
4/10Lineup Pool4/10

 

Andrei ArlovskivsBen Rothwell
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 27-18-0 (2 NC)RecordRecord: 36-11-0
17 KO/TKO (63%)Knockouts27 KO/TKO (75%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (11%)Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (17%)
+160Vegas Odds-185
5/10Lineup Pool2/10

 

Alex CaceresvsSteven Peterson
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 14-12-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 17-8-0
3 KO/TKO (21%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (24%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (36%)Subs8 SUBMISSIONS (47%)
-125Vegas Odds+105
4/10Lineup Pool3/10

 

Raquel PenningtonvsIrene Aldana
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 9-8-0RecordRecord: 10-4-0
1 KO/TKO (11%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (50%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (33%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)
+120Vegas Odds-140
5/10Lineup Pool2/10

 

Sam AlveyvsKlidson Abreu
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 33-12-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 14-3-0
19 KO/TKO (58%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (29%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (9%)Subs10 SUBMISSIONS (71%)
+150Vegas Odds-170
3/10Lineup Pool5/10

 

Roxanne ModafferivsJennifer Maia
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 23-16-0RecordRecord: 16-5-1
4 KO/TKO (17%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (25%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (22%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (25%)
+120Vegas Odds-140
5/10Lineup Pool3/10

 

Ray BorgvsGabriel Silva
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 11-4-0RecordRecord: 7-0-0
1 KO/TKO (9%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (38%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (55%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
-210Vegas Odds+175
5/10Lineup Pool3/10

 

Mario BautistavsJinsoo Son
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 6-1-0RecordRecord: 9-3-0
2 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (44%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (22%)
+165Vegas Odds-190
5/10Lineup Pool3/10

 

Domingo PilartevsFelipe Colares
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 8-1-0RecordRecord: 8-1-0
2 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (25%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (63%)
-340Vegas Odds+280
5/10Lineup Pool3/10