NASCAR DFS: South Point 400 Track Breakdown

Playoffs!?! Playoffs?? (Should be read in a Jim Mora high-pitched tone). That’s right we’re talking playoffs this week as they kick off in Vegas on Sunday evening with the South Point 400. The last time we saw cars here was back in March at the third race of the year and it was quite an exciting race, aside from the group qualifying that was a disaster.

It is a 1.5-mile tri-oval track with banking of 20 degrees in all four corners and it’s a track that has a couple of different racing lines. The surface is still pretty new so tire wear isn’t a major concern here as the fall off over a run isn’t all that much. Unlike most tracks of this distance, winners have a history of coming from just about anywhere in the field as you can see below.

Starting Positions of Winners

Of the 23 Cup races that have been held at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, winners have come from 16 different positions and only once from the Pole. Aside from the second spot, winners have come from each position no more than twice. That spread of winning starting spots is unusual for intermediate tracks and means this will be an even more free-wheeling race in terms of strategy and racing on the track than we saw at other tracks this size.

The 400-mile race is run over 267 laps and stages of 80 laps, 80 laps, and 107.

Track Data

Drivers To Watch This Week:

I had difficulty getting my camera to work so I wrote out the Hot Pass for you, hope you don’t mind.

Brad Keselowski ($9,500 on DK and $13,000 on FD) – He’s a priced a bit out of the mid-tier on FanDuel but he’s definitely in the mid-tier on DraftKings. He won this race last year and finished second in March and has five top-10s in the last five races at Vegas. Keselowski is the only driver to finish in the top-10 in each of the last eight races at Vegas and has three wins in that span along with an average finish of 3.2 which is the best in that span. In this package over eight 1.5-mile races this year he has two wins and five top-fives and in the last five Vegas races, he has the highest average point total on DK and FD.

Ryan Blaney ($8,700 on DK and $10,000 on FD) – Blaney has four top-10s in his six career races at Vegas and an average finish of 9.0 in the last five trips. He’s posted a top-10 and four top-15s in this package this year which is decent but not so lights out that he should remain under the radar a bit more this week. He also ranks in the top-10 of scoring on both sites in the last two and five races at Vegas.

Aric Almirola ($7,800 on DK and $8,300 on FD) – It’s been a bit since Almirola was a driver to watch but he’s back again this week because he’s posted three top-10s in his last five Vegas races. Those are his only top-10s in the last nine as he’s seemingly figured out the track. Almirola has a healthy +9.2 position differential in the last five races including moving from P25 to P7 in the March race. He’s had three top-10s and six top-15s in the eight similar races this season with an average finish of 11.5 and PD of nearly plus-five.

Paul Menard ($6,900 on DK and $6,800 on FD) – With his announcement this week, he may have extra motivation to notch a final few great finishes. At Vegas, he has two top-10s and four top-15s in his last five races here with an average finish of 13.6. In the last 10 Vegas trips, he’s got a top-five and finished in the top-10 half the time while moving up seven spots a race. In this package, he’s held serve with a top-10 and five top-15s in eight races while finishing right where he starts 15.9.

Erik Jones ($9,100 on DK and $10,400 on FD) – Jones is the contrarian play of the week this week since he has just one top-10 and three top-20s in his four Vegas races while going backward on average 10 spots. However, most of that backward movement was because of last year’s fall race when he started on the pole and crashed out to finish 40^th. In the March race, he started P18 and finished P13 and in this package, he has a win (Darlington), four top-fives, and six top-10s in eight races and the third-best average finish at 9.8.

Daniel Hemric ($6,200 on DK and $6,000 on FD) – Hemric is the fade of the week for the South Point 400. In the one race he’s run at the Cup level here, he started P5 in March and finished P23 which clearly isn’t great. In his three Xfinity races, Hemric has gone backward in two of the three and in the third, he started P35 and finished P29 but actually crashed out after getting stage points in two stages. The 2019 package hasn’t been good for him either with just three top-20s in eight races and a -12.6 position differential.

Last Five Las Vegas Races

*The Fall race started last year so this is truly the last five Vegas races and not just the Fall races.

Top-20 Drivers Over Last 10 Vegas Races

Top-20 Drivers at Similar Races (Las Vegas, Kansas, Texas)

Team Averages at Las Vegas (since Feb. 2017)

Momentum

*Numbers reflect the eight races run this season in this same package on intermediate tracks.

Drivers

Team

Price Changes at Las Vegas

DraftKings

FanDuel

DraftKings Scoring Averages at Las Vegas

FanDuel Scoring Averages at Las Vegas

Weekly Rankings (1=Best, 40=Worst)

Race History, Momentum, Vegas History, and Track Type History are ranked on the average finish in those varying spans. Scoring averages are ranked from highest to lowest over those spans.