Everybody loves the shiny new toy, whether it be the top rookie that everybody thinks will be the next elite fantasy superstar or that late rounder you sleeper you think is poised to breakout. With the appeal of those players comes the inherent risk of a bust. With those players you are drafting for upside and the production that you believe will be there come seasons end. Unfortunately, that is not always the case and why it is probably a better strategy to value players who provide solid, consistent production that you can count on rather than those players who may ultimately hurt your fantasy team more than help it.
How to Identify Consistent Players
Identifying consistent players is rather simple. Look at their production over the last three or so years in the league and see if there is a similar pattern of production. For example, let’s take a look at two wide receivers with similar ADP’s this season and compare the production over the last three years:
As you can see both of these players had very similar production during 2015 and 2016 yet 2017 one clearly outshined the other. By now you have probably figured out that Player A is Amari Cooper and Player B is Doug Baldwin . Would you say that Baldwin has been the more consistent player of the two based off the sample provided? Is there really a debate as to whether Baldwin even has the greater upside of the two given his touchdown production? Yet here we are with Cooper being drafted slightly higher than Baldwin in drafts and is ranked ahead of him in the rankings. If you drafted Baldwin last season hoping he would build off his 2016 season you might have been a little let down but overall his production did not kill you. If you drafted Amari Cooper , on the other hand, you were likely pulling your hair out.
Consistency vs Upside
What if you were told that there is a receiver being drafted a round or two later than both Cooper and Baldwin that over the last three seasons has put up these numbers:
On average, he has consistently caught more passes for similar yards and similar touchdown production. The reason he can be had later than the other two players is purely his age. Player C is Larry Fitzgerald . Maybe more impressive than the catches and yards during that span would be the number of targets which, last year, he ranked third in the NFL with 161. A player going just a pick or two ahead of him, on average, is Steelers wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster . JuJu had a breakout 2017 season which saw him catch 58 passes for 917 yards seven touchdowns. Entering the year, not much was expected from Smith-Schuster as the Steelers had plenty of WR depth, but that depth quickly evaporated and with opportunity Smith-Schuster started to produce and over five of the last seven games he averaged 5.9 catches for 98 yards while scoring four touchdowns during that span. Is there still upside with JuJu this season? Of course, but there is also a likelihood that he takes a step back in year two. Especially given the fact that Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell will still be the top options in the Steelers offense. Is it worth taking this type of risk with what would essentially be your fourth or fifth round selection?
Now sure, Larry Fitzgerald could fall off a cliff this year because he is 34 years old and not many receivers his age continue to produce at an elite level, BUT there are also few receivers in NFL history that are the caliber of player that is Larry Fitzgerald . If you had to place a wager, which some of you can now do, on a 1,000-yard season from Larry Fitzgerald or JuJu Smith-Schuster this season it would seem like Fitzgerald is the safer choice and that is what you should want on your fantasy football team. He is a player that you can count on week in and week out to get you the production needed to win your matchups.
Check the Game Logs
The main reason for drafting consistent players is so that you know each week you can count on them for a certain amount of fantasy points. There are however many players that may finish the season with impressive numbers but that end of year production could have been caused by a few outlier games in which their statistics exploded. For JuJu Smith-Schuster one could point to his 193-yard game against the Lions as an outlier and therefore the average production expected from him is less than what the numbers appear to be. Another prime example of outlier production leading to increased draft stock was current Eagles running back Jay Ajayi heading into the 2017 season. In 2016 Ajayi rushed for 1,272 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging an impressive 4.9 yards per carry. However, a closer look into Ajayi’s season will show that 624 of that 1,272 yards came in three games. Now yes, it is impressive to notch three 200+ yard rushing games in a season and if you are a DFS player this is what you are looking for in terms of upside but as a seasonal player all that gets you is likely three wins over the course of an entire season because he only goes on to average 59 rushing yards per game over the other 12 games during the season.
Always Mock Draft
As always, you should be doing as many mock drafts as you can to get down your draft strategy. Identify which players with consistent production may be had at a value because the upside of maybe a younger player is more intriguing to those in your league. You don’t have to completely avoid upside players but a solid mix of consistent production in the early rounds with some mid-to-late round upside picks should be a nice recipe for success heading into the 2018 fantasy football season.