The start of spring is always a great time in sports, but for many, it signals the start of the baseball season. Baseball is my favorite daily fantasy sport to play, mainly due to the opportunity to see something different each and every day. It’s by far the longest season of any sport, and on most days, provides the DFS community with plenty of action. One of my favorite parts of DFS baseball is that roughly every player listed in lineup will roughly receive the same opportunity for at bats. Yes, the hitters at the top of a lineup are in a better spot than those batting eighth, but you don’t have to worry about if a running back will split carries, which defensemen is on the power play, or what the usage rate is for James Harden with Russell Westbrook off the court. With baseball, all a player has to do is be in the starting lineup to have a shot to score the most points of the slate.
Baseball also has the largest amount of data available to dissect, and in my opinion, is the sport in which the data most accurately effects the game. Even with the large amount of data available, we started to see the full emergence of the home run or strikeout era. The season long home run record was shattered last season, which also meant we saw higher strikeout numbers from pitchers. The amount of home runs that could be hit this season is something to monitor over the first month of the season. Below is a starting guide for those new to MLB DFS, as well as some tips and strategies to consider for players at any level of experience.
Know Your Site:
Although the MLB DFS concept is similar across all formats, each fantasy site has a uniqueness to them. At the beginning of each season, fantasy sites offer freerolls, as well as other promotional offers, which make for a great opportunity to try out a site. Make sure to sign-up through a link at FantasyAlarm in order to receive even more promotional opportunities. Use that time to figure out which site or sites work best for your style of play, as well as your goal for playing.
Outside of FanDuel and DraftKings, we suggest giving, Yahoo and RealTime Sports a try. These sites are equally enjoyable, and some would argue are also filled with less large bankroll players, as well as have lower contest fees. The final area to look at with choosing your site is the emergence of specialty style games. These range from arcade style high scoring contests, pick’ems, snake drafts, and even ones where you don’t need to take a pitcher. While some may give other players an edge, you may be able to find that one of these type of games works best for your style of play.
Scenario Based Game:
DFS baseball is as much, or even as more of a scenario-based game than any other sport. There are multiple variables to consider when looking at each day’s slate that will have a key impact on your thought process when building lineups. While each of them has their effect on the slate, I want to focus on the few variables that I find to have the greatest impact.
Overall, even if you are only playing on one site, it’s important to see how other sites are pricing the slate to look for any spots that you can take advantage of. Unlike other spots where no matter the matchup, the top players are typically always the top priced options, baseball at times is different. Two of the main reasons for this are the ballpark and starting pitching factors. When teams play at places like Coors, sites pretty much automatically increase a player’s price tag. The same goes for when a team is matched up with their opponent’s ace pitcher, and it’s important to be aware of those factors when looking at pricing. One of the other key ways to determine how a game will be played out is looking at Vegas. Knowing the teams projected run total, or any sharp line movement throughout the day will show you what spots are best for both hitters and pitchers for the slate. I also like to look at the player props, with the pitcher strikeout prop, and HR odds, as the two I look at most.
For most people, the weather is the first thing they look at for baseball. While the cold has an effect early in the year, the hot temps in Texas and St. Louis come into play by July. The potential of rain has the biggest effect on pitching, as a two-hour delay could mean an early end to your starting pitcher. With teams playing practically every day, as well as some teams going more with a platoon approach, you do see some starting lineup changes every now and then. The best area to attack that is through either going with a cheap, backup catcher, or the spot start outfielder who is batting leadoff for the night. Finally, while it doesn’t happen often, sometimes a starting pitcher is pushed back a day due to rest, or due to the previous night’s rain postponement. In that scenario, the sites have already priced a slate on say Jacob deGrom starting, so targeting those players that have been priced cheap, but are now facing a Double-A call-up could be huge.
Contest selection:
There will be a larger piece coming out about contest selection, but please note that many, including myself, find that selecting the contests that best fit your goal for playing is key. Figure out why you are playing, and if playing double ups, or large entry GPP’s is worth it to you. It’s always best to know the entry limit per user, how top heavy the payout structure is, the contest fee, and the percent of players that win.
Tips and Strategies:
The number one advice I can give with baseball is that to go with your gut. Yes, the goal is to win a large GPP, or make a monthly profit, but it still needs to be fun. That’s not saying go dumb contrarian, but if you like a player, or have a team you root for, go with them. The reason I say this is due to the stacking narrative in baseball. While some don’t like stacking, I feel it is typically the best route to take to win a GPP. My favorite way to stack is to target one of the top teams, and pair them with a mid-tier option that could be low owned. The other route is to instead of taking the say, 2-5 hitters from a team, to go more with a 6,7,8,1 stack. Finally, I like to always pay up for pitching if playing Cash games. Don’t get beat by not having one of the top pitchers in order to get a Mike Trout who could go 0-3 with two walks.
Conclusion:
Compared to other sports, there will be plenty of action in the contest lobbies every day for baseball. I’m curious to see how last year’s emergence of the home run or strikeout will transfer into this season, as well as the attempt to speed up the game, but excited for the start of the season. Please feel free to add in any of your own tips, ir ask any questions in the comment section below. Good luck, and enjoy the season!