There’s nothing worse than banking on a certain level of production from a player and you just don’t get it. Injuries are one thing. They run rampant throughout every NFL season and there’s just nothing you can do about it. But when your guy is healthy and he’s still not delivering the goods? That’s a nightmare, especially if you continuously go back to the well with the hopes of a turnaround. While it’s impossible to leave out all the injury talk here, the list below is our Top 20 players who simply won’t get the job done. Maybe there’s a good game or two in their future, but overall, these players will not be the ones who bring you home a title.
AJ McCarron , QB BUF – Why does everyone think this guy can be a successful NFL quarterback? I mean…if he was really that good, don’t you think he would have supplanted Andy Dalton in Cincinnati at some point? He never even came close. Not once did we hear that Dalton was in danger of being benched. Now maybe that has to do more with Marvin Lewis’ attachment to Dalton, but it’s not like McCarron was even forcing the discussion. Now in Buffalo, he’ll look to establish himself in an offense with an aging running back and a receiving corps that looks like the Bengals younger, less-talented brother. Oh yeah, and we’re already on the Josh Allen -watch too, people. McCarron is not someone you want on your roster. UPDATE 8/19: A hairline fracture in his collarbone only reinforces the bust belief.
Andy Dalton , QB CIN – Well of course we’re going to put the Red Rocket here. Why? Because even with A.J. Green and a returning Tyler Eifert , Dalton just isn’t good enough to help carry your fantasy team as a QB1. A bonus for him is the improvement of the offensive line, but we’re also looking at Dalton having to learn a new offensive scheme now that offensive coordinator Bill Lazor gets a full chance to put his stamp on the offense. Lazor will likely turn away from the west coast offense that was in place over the previous few years and utilize more of a run-heavy scheme with Joe Mixon and the revamped line. Whatever scheme he ultimately settles on, the assumption is that it will put the ball in Dalton’s hands less.
Dak Prescott , QB DAL – This is probably the biggest lay-up of the season as the Cowboys have no wideouts for Prescott to throw to anymore. Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley are expected to be the top two targets with Allen Hurns , rookie Michael Gallup and second-year tight end Rico Gathers getting involved. Does that sound intimidating in any way? No. Let’s face it…this is Ezekiel Elliott ’s team and he’ll be used the most of any offensive weapon. That will obviously cut into Prescott’s potential and even if he tries to use his legs to augment his production, it’s just not going to be enough to sustain him as a QB1.
Andrew Luck , QB IND – Listen, if you’re one of those people dismissing last season and are getting jazzed up about Luck finally throwing a football in June for the first time, you’ve got issues. First of all, he’s throwing high school footballs which are lighter than NFL balls. Three months to go in the offseason and the team’s medical staff still doesn’t have enough faith in his shoulder to be throwing a regular ball. Second, he’s not throwing these Nerf balls competitively at all. He’s playing catch on the sidelines. He’s not putting any zip on them and he’s certainly not attempting to throw on the run yet. And third, what happens when he takes that first hit that drives him into the ground on his shoulder? It’s not that we’re rooting against Luck to succeed. It’s that we’re rooting for you to win this season and that’s not going to happen with Luck as your starting quarterback. UPDATE 8/19: OK, so we're softening on our stance with Luck as he has been very active in training camp, has shown the ability to put some zip on the ball and has even taken a few hits. There's more cautious optimism than anything else as one hard drive into the ground on his shoulder by a defensive lineman could send your season up in flames, but so long as you get yourself a viable back-up, taking a 10th-round stab at Luck in your drafts is something we're warming up to.
LeSean McCoy , RB BUF – He’ll turn 30 years old in July which puts him in the wrong age range for what 
you want in a starting running back. But it’s not so much the age of McCoy that worries us as it is the mileage on this guy. Eight-straight years of at least 200 carries and 28 catches is a lot and when you consider the fact that he’s been dealing with defenses stacking the box against him during his tenure in Buffalo, you can only imagine the pounding this guy has taken over the years. The Bills are looking to stay run-heavy once again as A.J. McCarron and Josh Allen will be learning how to play at the NFL level and doing it with a limited receiving corps. That puts eight men in the box routinely for McCoy to have to try and run through. Shake that Magic 8_ball and you’ll get “Outlook not Good.”
Tarik Cohen , RB CHI – Despite the fact that new head coach Matt Nagy said he’s going to incorporate Cohen into the offense more, there is little belief that it will end up as anything more than a few gadget plays. Nagy wants Mitchell Trubisky to start blossoming as a quarterback and he brought in a number of receiving weapons to help him along, including Allen Robinson and a second pass-catching tight end in Trey Burton . You also still have Jordan Howard in the backfield and while he may not be a good pass-catcher, he showed just how explosive he could be as a power-runner back when everyone claimed Cohen was going to steal his job. Cohen is like a poor man’s Darren Sproles and that teeny-tiny 5-foot-6 frame isn’t going to be able to sustain the beatings an NFL running back takes.
LeGarrette Blount , RB DET – He is likely to have value in standard leagues to start the season, but it’s really just a matter of time before Kerryon Johnson pushes him for goal-line carries. The Lions envision Johnson as an every-down back, but will settle for early-downs while Theo Riddick continues the pass-catching duties. That means Blount’s days (and touches) are likely numbered. If you end up drafting Blount because you’re desperate for backfield help, get ready to deal him early in the season. The longer you wait, the worse return you’re going to get.
Kareem Hunt , RB KC – He was amazing for the first five games of the season last year, then he sucked for seven weeks and was then back on top for the final four weeks of the regular season. It wasn’t his doing, so we can’t blame him. It was Andy Reid with, literally, the worst play-calling ever. But while Hunt managed over 1,300 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns in total, why do we just think he’s going to repeat? Reid has already taken back play-calling responsibilities and has Spencer Ware returning from injury this season. Who’s to say Reid doesn’t lean towards more of a tandem backfield this year? Or tilt towards a more pass-heavy scheme with Patrick Mahomes under center? Given the personnel changes and Reid’s track record, there are a lot more red flags on Hunt this year than most people are willing to admit.
Kenyan Drake , RB MIA – The fact that the Dolphins brought in Frank Gore should say it all. The veteran running back screwed over fantasy owners of Marlon Mack last season as his coach continuously handed him the ball so he could crack the top five in all-time rushing yards. Now Adam Gase brings him in when Gore is three rushing touchdowns from cracking the top 20 and nine away from the top 15 on the all-time list. Drake may see the lion’s share of touches, but Gore is likely going to handle the short-yardage and goal-line work in this offense. Oh yeah…and let’s not forget the Dolphins drafted former Arizona State running back Kalen Ballage in the fourth round of the NFL draft. How long before he’s eating into Drake’s touches?
Doug Martin , RB OAK – After watching him flame out in Tampa Bay and end up suspended for PEDs use, there’s just not much to love about Martin who, for all intents and purposes, was believed to be too small to tote the rock regularly anyway. Now he’s working in tandem with Marshawn Lynch in Oakland? No thank you. Lynch is a favorite of John Gruden’s and will see the majority of carries out of the backfield, but more importantly, Gruden is building this team like he’s in a PPR fantasy league. We still have Amari Cooper in town, but he’s now joined by Jordy Nelson and, if not suspended, Martavius Bryant. There’s just not enough touches to go around to give the mighty-mite any real fantasy value at the moment.
Devin Funchess , WR CAR – This may be more gut feel than anything else, but with the return of tight end Greg Olsen , the drafting of D.J. Moore , the acquisition of Torrey Smith and the fact that Christian McCaffrey sees plenty of work in the passing game, there just doesn’t seem to be enough targets to go around and support Funchess as a potential WR1 for fantasy owners. Cam Newton threw the ball fewer than 35 times in every game last year, save for one, and it doesn’t look like we’re going to see any sort of an improvement on that. Norv Turner takes over as the new OC, but he’s more concerned with improving Newton’s completion percentage which could mean fewer throws. It’s not often you complain about too many weapons on a team, but if you’re looking to own Funchess, just remember who else is going to see the ball come their way. UPDATE 8/19: While Turner is definitely working on Newton's efficiency, Funchess is actually fitting into the system quite nicely. Turner's offensive scheme is leading with the power run and looking to set up more of a vertical game downfield. That is going to help the 6-foot-4 Funchess, especially when he's got such a height advantage over a number of the league's defensive backs. If Turner continues to push the vertical downfield, Funchess becomes a much more intriguing mid-round option.
Josh Gordon , WR CLE – This is more about value than anything else. Gordon has tremendous talent, but he’s coming off the board as a top-20 overall receiver right now and he hasn’t done anything to warrant that since 2013. With an ADP of 43.73, he’s going in the late-third/early-fourth round and it just seems a little high, especially when you look at all the added weapons brought in and personnel changes such as TyRod Taylor under center. Taylor is not a strong-passing QB by any stretch of the imagination and will likely lean heavily on slot receiver Jarvis Landry and tight end David Njoku most of the time, leaving Gordon to a much more limited selection of targets. If his ADP were a couple of rounds lower, he probably wouldn’t be on this list, but until that changes, here he is. UPDATE 8/19: Gordon is finally back in camp and ready to start showing what he can do. The problem, however, is the mental fragility we are looking at here. We admire Gordon for having the good sense to stay in treatment for some extra time while the Hard Knocks team runs through Browns training camp, but the lesson that should be learned here is that Gordon is putting his treatment ahead of football. As he should, but for fantasy purposes, you should keep this in the back of your mind. If Gordon realizes he is struggling in-season, will he ask the team for permission to leave for a week or two?
Corey Coleman , WR CLE – So take everything that was just written above and understand that Coleman sits behind Gordon on the targets list. There are just way too many mouths to feed in this new-look Browns offense and Coleman looks like he could be the odd-man out. UPDATE 8/19: Even after the trade to Buffalo, we're still not singing his praises.
Allen Hurns , WR DAL – Injuries have really derailed the last two seasons for Hurns, but did you also notice how easily the younger Jaguars receivers were passing him on the targets list even when he was healthy? How exactly Hurns will fit into this Dallas offense is yet to be determined, but it just doesn’t look like there’s going to be enough to go around even this mediocre, rag-tag group of wideouts. The Cowboys will stay focused on Ezekiel Elliott and when Dak needs to throw, you can probably expect him to stick mostly with whomever he is most comfortable. That’s probably more Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams than it is Hurns.
Kenny Golladay , WR DET – Maybe you can draft him in a best-ball format and hope for those two games in which he does well, but in seasonal leagues, there’s just not a lot of love for Golladay. Marvin Jones and Golden Tate dominate the targets and with the addition of both LeGarrette Blount and Kerryon Johnson , it looks like the Lions are going to push a more run-heavy scheme. Now sure, Matthew Stafford is going to revert to his old form and chuck the ball around, but again, he’s got his top two favorite wideouts to look at first. Golladay seems to have a clear path to the No. 3 WR job, but while some people are already assigning those Eric Ebron targets to him, that is not likely the case. Don’t believe the hype Detroit OC Jim Bob Cooter is laying out Golladay’s way. It’s nothing more than lip service.
Sammy Watkins , WR KC – Come on, people. How in the world is the ever-disappointing Watkins going to fit here? Are we hyping him up because we expect Mahomes to chuck the ball all over the field? Aren't Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce the preferred targets in Andy Reid's system? Are we not expecting Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware to jump in as both designed targets and check-down options? Watkins has been a chronic disappointment from his days with the Bills to his disappointing year with the Rams, and unless the Chiefs are going to have Mahomes throw 45-50 times per game, he’s just not going to get the looks you really want from him.
Jordan Matthews , WR NE – Yuck. Plain and simple. Matthews has been a major disappointment throughout his short career and a move to the Patriots doesn’t appear to be the answer. Even with Julian Edelman potentially being suspended for the first four games of the season, we all know what Tom Brady is like when it comes to throwing the ball. He has his favorites and he stays incredibly focused on them. That puts the ball in the hands of Rob Gronkowski , Chris Hogan and Rex Burkhead to open the year. Maybe Matthews sees a few extra looks his way early on in the season, but he’s definitely not finishing the season with numbers better than what Brandin Cooks posted last year. He may not even come close. UPDATE 8/19: Just throwing down a "we told you so," as Matthews disappoints once again.
Tyler Lockett , WR SEA The assumption is that without Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson , Lockett is finally going to break out and put up numbers fantasy owners have been clamoring for over the past few years. But is that really going to happen? Doug Baldwin is still to the No. 1 go-to target and the team also brought in both an aging Brandon Marshall and former Cardinals receiver Jaron Brown . Add that to the fact that the Seahawks drafted Rashaad Penny and would prefer to tilt back to a run-heavy offensive scheme. Lockett is better served as a late-round best-ball option as he’ll likely have two or three games where he’s actually productive, but to have to endure the weekly decisions of whether to use him or not in seasonal? No thank you.
Pierre Garcon , WR SF – This is actually a health issue situation as there have been limited reports that Garcon, whose season was cut short by a serious neck injury, will be ready for training camp. That report came out in January, but here we are five months down the road and there’s really been nothing since. No status updates, no talk of participation in workouts and drills…nothing. There was an early-April quote from Kyle Shanahan saying that he expected garcon to be ready, but that’s about it. He’s got the potential of being a heavily-targeted wideout in this offensive scheme, but until you hear more about him being 100-percent healthy, you may want to look in another direction.
Mike Gesicki , TE MIA – Expectations were crazy high on Draft Day as everyone was buzzing about Gesicki in an Adam Gase-led offense. Yes, the same cries we heard when Gase and Julius Thomas were reunited last season. How’d that one go? But while we still may be able to believe that Gase loves designing red zone plays for his tight ends, there is now growing concern that Gesicki is going to struggle with the learning curve a rookie tight end has to deal with. If he’s struggling with the playbook and his blocking assignments, there’s simply no way the Dolphins can feature him in this offense. They don’t exactly have strong options to pivot to, but Gase can certainly back off the potential heavy pass load to the tight end. Rookie tight ends routinely have trouble breaking out in their first year and it doesn’t look like Gesicki is going to be any different. UPDATE 8/19: Another player we are softening our stance on as Gesicki appears to be endearing himself to both the Dolphns coaches and quarterback Ryan Tannehill . As any rookie tight end does, Gesicki will endure some struggles, but for a later-round pick, he's actually a bit more attractive in the fantasy realm.