2019 MLB Draft Guide: Targeting Multi-Category Contributors
Published: Jan 25, 2019
You can see the title of this article above, but the alternative title, or perhaps the subtitle, should be “Why Not to Target Single-Category Contributors.”
One-trick ponies tend to be over drafted. It’s common for drafters to reach for a single-category stud in an effort to “lock-up” a specific category. Examples of this in early ADP (average draft position) are speedster Dee Gordon and a power hitter like Khris Davis .
Gordon has stolen at least 30 bases in five consecutive seasons and 55 or more in three of those five seasons. Even if Gordon remains in the 30-40 SB range as opposed to 50+, he still projects to be a top-five base stealer this season. The problem is that he gives you absolutely nothing in the power categories. He has never reached five home runs or 50 RBI in a season. Despite that, Gordon is still going in the top 100 overall per current ADP.
It’s confusing as to why Gordon would be going about 20 spots higher on average than another guy at his position, José Peraza . Peraza’s best individual category is also stolen bases as he has stolen 21 or 23 bases in three consecutive seasons. The difference is that the young Peraza (only 25 this season) started to grow into some power last year with 14 home runs and 58 RBI and projects for double digit homers and 60+ RBI this season. Those are below average power numbers but not nearly to the degree that Gordon’s power numbers will be. When paired with a healthy batting average and a slightly above average run total, Peraza will be a much more well-rounded fantasy contributor that still helps you in speed at a lower cost than Gordon.
As for Davis, he has been remarkably consistent with at least 40 home runs, 85 runs and 100 RBI in three straight seasons. The problem is that he has hit exactly .247 in four straight seasons and has five steals in the last three years. Admittedly, the power numbers are appealing as is the consistency with which Davis has produced them. But are they so appealing that the 31-year-old Davis should be going at the end of the third round or top of the fourth (in 12-team leagues)?
As an alternative, why not the much younger Cody Bellinger , who is going a round or so later than Davis? Bellinger carries less aging risk, and he’ll give you something in the two categories where Davis will decidedly be below average. Bellinger has stolen at least 10 bases in each of his first two seasons, and he’s a .263 hitter in his first 1000+ PA. He’s projected for around 30/80/90, which obviously isn’t the same as 40/85/100, but it still does the trick of giving you above average power numbers without ceding ground in the other categories.
Focusing on multi-cat contributors allows you to build a deep, flexible roster. You’re less susceptible to devastating injuries, and you have more options as far as the types of players you can add via waivers or trade. As an example, if the plan is to compete in steals with Gordon and he gets injured, you’re in trouble. You can probably add a 20-25 SB type guy off the wire mid-season, but they’re also going to provide you no power and hurt you in batting average. On the flip side, if you focus on multi-cat guys consistently in your draft, injuries won’t kill you, and you’ll be able to add specific category contributors if needed and will be less impacted by their negatives.
In the first two rounds, there are obviously quite a few hitters who will give you solid numbers across all five categories. However, there are a few guys you might want to avoid if you’re intent on getting five-cat contributors. Guys like J.D. Martínez , Nolan Arenado and Giancarlo Stanton are going to give you no speed whatsoever, and Stanton is mediocre in batting average as well. His teammate, Aaron Judge , is going to hurt you in average and give you below average speed. Trea Turner will give you elite speed, but his power numbers project to be average to slightly below average. You’re not going to lose your league by drafting one of those guys, they just don’t fit the multi-cat game plan.
As you go through the later rounds of your drafts, here are a few additional multi-cat contributors to target.
Outfield
There’s no doubt that the majority of multi-category contributors are in the outfield. As a result, it’s not the worst idea to go with an infielder in the early rounds if you have a coin flip type choice between an outfielder and an infielder. You’ll have plenty of chances to fill your outfield slots with diversified contributors in the middle and later rounds.
When you get to the seventh round, a guy like Eddie Rosario should be available for selection per ADP. Rosario is exactly the type of well-rounded contributor you’re looking for as his worst category is stolen bases, and the eight or nine stolen bases he has had in the last two seasons put him right around average in that category. Elsewhere, Rosario is easily a plus contributor. In the last two seasons, he has 51 home runs, an average of 160 R+RBI and a .289 batting average. Rosario is also squarely in his prime at 27 years old, which adds to his appeal as a mid-round selection.
Further down the ADP list, in the 10th or 11th round, you’ll find new Cincinnati Red, Yasiel Puig . Puig has gone 20/15 in each of his last two seasons, reaching those numbers in only 444 PA last season. Puig might project for a few more RBI than runs if he hits down the Cincy order a bit, but he has reliably produced in both categories in his career. He also projects for a batting average around .270, which is safely above the .262 mark that is the average projection in that category for the top 200 hitters in ADP.
Going further still down the ADP list, how about Ryan Braun outside the top 200 overall? Braun’s multi-cat prowess made him an early round target year after year when he was in his prime. Now that Braun is in his mid-30’s he’s obviously not able to produce at the same level, but he does continue to produce across categories. Braun cleared 20/10 last year and cleared 120 R+RBI. His .254 batting average was a career worst, but it was accompanied by a career worst BABIP of .274. With a slight bounce back in average, Braun has a chance to be slightly above average in every category.
Infield
It’s easier to find multi-cat guys up the middle than it is at the corners, but Eric Hosmer can give you a little bit of something across the board with an ADP in the 14th round or so. Hosmer no longer steals 10+ bases like he did early in his career, but he’s still good for six or seven steals, which is better than the “1” you so often see in the steals category from corner guys. In the other counting cats Hosmer projects to clear 20/75/75, and he is a career .280 hitter. Hosmer is still in his 20’s despite amassing more than 5000 career PA already, so we don’t yet have to worry about the aging curve hitting him too hard.
Up the middle, you can find guys like Odubel Herrera and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. even later than you can get Hosmer. Herrera is going in the 15th or 16th round, and Gurriel is going outside the top 200. Neither guy projects to be significantly above average in any category as Gurriel’s projection of 72 runs per Steamer is probably the best single category contribution among either guy’s projections. But neither guy is going to hurt you much in any category. Neither is a speedster, but a projected seven steals for each is adequate. Home run projections in the 15-20 range are acceptable, and neither is a huge batting average risk. There’s nothing sexy here like a 30-plus steals projection for fellow middle infielder Gordon. But across all categories these guys can collectively give you production like that of Gordon at a fraction of the cost.