When preparing for fantasy draft one of the tools that many use is average draft position.  Most websites that offer leagues will also compile the player’s ADP and display it on the queue where the available players are during a draft.  There are many ways to use ADP to your advantage but there are some things that you must be wary of when using it.  When does ADP become important?  First round? Second? Tenth?  When do you ignore it?  How does your draft position come into play? 

The most important thing is to realize what is the ADP being compiled from?  On some sites it is the result of all drafts being done on their site. Do all the drafts have the same rules?  Different formats will value players differently and your ADP should be relative to the type of league you’re playing in.  For instance in a head to head league, high strikeout middle relievers will be worth more in that format than in a season long category format where they help, but relievers with saves may be more valuable.  So if you are using ADP from the NFBC in a league that is head to head, you may lose out on some valuable relievers who have a low ADP in the NFBC and others may snag these players before you see them come up on your list. 

The next thing to know is what time period is the ADP compiled from?  Does it go back to November?  Can you adjust the list and get the ADP from the last 30 days?  There will be changes in ADP as the off season progresses with the signing of free agents, injuries, suspensions, and cheating scandals.  If you use an ADP that goes back to November someone may be ranked higher or lower than what their current ADP is running.  After the 2019 season there was conjecture that the Twins should play Mitch Garver at first base due to his breakout season to get him more at bats.  As of Jan 17th, his ADP in the NFBC is 114.8.  Now that the Twins have signed Josh Donaldson and Miguel Sanó will be playing first, will this affect Garver’s ADP? If you only look at data from November it will take some time for the ADP to change if his ADP drops a bit as his projections may now change due to the possible reduction in ABs that were expected. 

So how does ADP help you during a draft?  The best example is being able to project who will be available to you when you pick next.  Depending on your draft position anywhere from 10-23 players will be picked between your picks in a 12 team league.  Who you expect to be gone by the time you pick again will help you decide who to take with that pick.  If you’re picking at the turn, sometimes you have to take someone you want earlier than their ADP since you won’t expect them to make it back to you. You’re getting close to the point where the closers should start going.  Do you start the run or wait and take what’s left when it gets back to you?  This is how you make the most of ADP.  It’s not a rankings list.  In one draft a player will get picked 10 spots before his ADP and in another 10 spots after.  The dynamics of the draft will dictate where a player is taken. 

For the first four or five rounds I don’t think ADP comes into play that much. You should have an idea of how you want to build your team and the first five rounds or so will give you your foundation with each team’s being different. If you have the fifth pick of the draft and want to take Jacob deGrom who’s ADP is around 9, no one will fault you for it.  If in the second round you want to follow him up with a player who has speed and power, you may have to take Bryce Harper a few spots above his ADP as the players that are at ADP have no speed.  It is more important to stick to your plan in the beginning and then use ADP to make decisions later in the draft to help fill out your team and not miss out on any categorical needs that may get scooped up before your next pick.

Rookies are usually a crapshoot when looking at their ADP.  Last year as Pete Alonso progressed through spring training, where he went in drafts was not dependent on his ADP but just who wanted him more during the draft.  He would go as early as the 12th round and as late as the 18th.  This year it will most likely be Luis Robert who will see his ADP fluctuate as we watch him play this spring.  In our Draft Guide’s strategies section, Matt Selz does an excellent job covering the risks of depending on rookies.  I stayed away from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. last year and was on Alonso because the risk of a late round pick was much lower.  If Robert stays at his current, last 30 day price (ahead of Marcell Ozuna , Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto , Max Kepler ) I won’t be a buyer.

Use ADP as a tool to help you navigate your way through the later portions of the draft.  It is not the be all end all of when you should take someone.  If you think Byron Buxton will finally break out and want to take him in the 9th round instead of waiting for his average 12th round selection, than do it because someone else in the draft room may be thinking the same thing.  If you see someone dropping well below their ADP ask yourself why before jumping on him.  Did you miss something or did everyone else and you are getting a bargain?  ADP is a static number. The draft is dynamic and you must be able to adjust on the fly.  Hopefully you’ll participate in a few mock drafts with the Mock Draft Army to get in some practice using ADP as a tool.  Remember ADP stands for AVERAGE draft position not ABSOLUTE draft position.