In this series, we are going to hit on each team and give you a brief rundown of how they look going into free agency, what moves are at their disposal, and what you might expect from the team. NFL free agency begins during the legal tampering period on Monday, March 14, 2022, and then players can officially sign on March 16th. All salary numbers within the article are courtesy of OverTheCap.com.

With this article, we are going to explore all potential options - some of which will obviously be more realistic than others. 
 

 


Projected Cap Space: $26,224,726


OVERVIEW

The Chicago Bears enter an interesting realm here - they just drafted a young quarterback but are now undergoing a complete regime change as general manager Ryan Pace and former head coach Matt Nagy have both been fired. The Bears' new general manager is Ryan Poles, a former colleague of Nagy’s that comes over from Kansas City, and the new head coach is Matt Eberflus, former defensive coordinator of the Indianapolis Colts. Former quarterback coach Luke Getsy comes over from the Green Bay Packers to be the offensive coordinator.

Luke Getsy has said openly that he plans to work around the pieces that are already in place which presumably means leaning into the mobility of Justin Fields. On defense, there are bigger questions as to the direction they go in. The Bears have been running a 3-4 base that has been curated by the likes of Vic Fangio, Chuck Pagano, and Sean Desai but Matt Eberflus and the new defensive coordinator he brought with him from Indianapolis, Alan Williams, had been running a 4-3 in Indianapolis. Word so far is that they plan to convert to that 4-3 defense which could see a lot of turnover and moving parts in the early stages of this regime change. 

The question now for the Bears is if they want to aggressively start building right away or go with a bridge year of sorts. With the bridge year, the plan is to let free agents leave, collect compensatory picks, burn dead cap, and roll money forward. However, with the clock ticking on a rookie quarterback deal, they may want to go after incoming free agents right away, even at the expense of compensatory picks. We’ll dive into as many different avenues as possible in terms of cuts, trades, free agents, etc.

 


CAP MANEUVER OPTIONS

Restructure

The most common way to generate money via restructuring is to convert base salary to signing bonus which can then be spread out over the remaining years of the contract. You can also potentially incorporate an extension to spread that money out further. How favorable that is for both the team and player comes down to the long-term outlook for the player. In certain circumstances, you may even have the leverage to ask a player to take less money.
 

 


Khalil Mack is the big one here. He’s an edge rusher that played outside linebacker in the 3-4 defense. Given how talented he is, he could obviously play defensive end in Eberflus’ 4-3 but the question is whether that’s what the new regime wants and whether it’s worth his contract to do that. At the end of the day though, whether you want to keep him or trade him, a restructure of some kind would help the team out. His cap hit for 2022 is huge at $30 million so, if you want to keep him, a restructure to convert some base salary could save over $12 million in this season. If you are going to trade him, a restructure is likely to be involved as well to make that 2022 cap hit more palatable for the team acquiring him. 
 

 


This is another decision point for this team and Eddie Jackson is another guy who could be a trade candidate - though even the best case trade scenario with a post-June 1st designation sticks them with $13.5 mil in dead cap spread over two years and only $11 mil in savings. Plus it would be difficult in general to trade his disappointing contract as he doesn’t have an interception in two seasons. There’s been talk of him playing some nickel corner but his contract is expensive for a full-time player, let alone a part-time one. If Eberflus does think Jackson is a good fit however and plans to have him around for the length of his deal, he could help generate cap space to the tune of $7.5 million with a restructure. The safe move here realistically is to just see how he fits within the defense in year one without restructuring and then either restructure him in 2023 or move him when the cap numbers are more palatable.    

 


Like many of these guys, Cody Whitehair was signed long-term through 2025. Last year he agreed to help the Bears with their cap situation by converting $5 million of his $6.5 million base salary into a signing bonus to free up cap space. If I were the general manager and needed cap space again, this is one of the first places I would look. The versatile interior lineman can play both guard and center so his flexibility allows you to go after the “best player available” on the interior if that’s what you want to do. A similar restructure would keep Whitehair around for the long term but could also free up another $5 million for this season. 


Trade

 


Unlike Khalil Mack, a Robert Quinn trade doesn’t have you eating nearly as much cap space.  With a post-June 1st designated trade, you could move him and save nearly $13 million in cap with only a hit of $4,237,500. He could obviously play defensive end in this scheme but he’s 31 and general manager Ryan Poles has already made comments about getting younger and building through the draft. When it comes to trade talks, it’s a lot easier to have that conversation when you are converting to a new defense where the guy isn’t an exact fit and Quinn fits that bill perfectly.
 

 


There are two directions to go with Roquan Smith - a trade or an extension. If he’s part of the long-term plan, you obviously just extend him. If he’s not, you trade him now. And here’s why.

There are likely going to be some guys leaving in free agency this year. In order to maximize compensatory picks, you can’t bring in incoming free agents that offset the formula.  Smith is in the last year of his deal now. If they did trade him, they would save $9,735,000 with zero dead cap. If they wait and let him walk in free agency next offseason, then the only way they could get a compensatory pick back next year would be to once again not sign incoming free agents. So, what you do instead, is take a page out of Bill Belichick’s book and trade Smith now for the best return you can get. Then you focus on the draft this year, let free agents leave without signing incoming ones to max compensatory picks, and then in the next year, you make the big splashes in free agency. Essentially, if Eberflus has big plans for Smith, you lock him up and, if not, ship him off. Letting him walk in 2023 for no return is the worst-case scenario.

Eddie Jackson/Khalil Mack - We talked about what makes them potential trade candidates above but figured their names belong here too.
 

 


Cut

 


Being the nose tackle in a 3-4 when Matt Eberflus comes around was like being Cardinals fullback Anthony Sherman when Bruce Arians took over in Arizona. Just doesn’t fit the scheme which makes you the odd man out right away. In Sherman’s case, Eddie Goldman was traded to the Chiefs but Goldman is much more likely a cut candidate. There is no cap benefit in trading him versus cutting him so, if someone wanted him for any sort of pick then great but otherwise, you can generate $8.8 million in cap space for 2022 by cutting him with a post-June 1st designation. 
 

 


The entire Nick Foles situation feels pretty botched as they may have been able to trade for him for something, anything, before signing Andy Dalton. It would not have been about the return in the trade as much as the cap benefit you would have gotten by trading him vs. cutting him. But having him as the QB3 all year last year makes his cap hit an incredibly unattractive prospect for most teams so the best option might be to just cut him. You eat $7.6 mil in dead cap with $3 mil in savings but it’s not like Foles is the long-term answer anyway so might as well just take the money.
 

 


Danny Trevathan - This one falls in that Foles category as a signing that just didn’t pan out and now you are just trying to salvage whatever you can of cap space. The dead cap hurts for only a little over $3 million in savings but you can spread it over two years with a post-June 1st designation. If the Bears really want to make this a bridge year, they might just eat the cap on a lot of these guys this year and move as much money forward as possible. 


IMPORTANT FREE AGENTS

 


Allen Robinson is obviously the first name that comes to mind for anyone talking Bears free agents. And it seems likely after the last tumultuous season that he is destined for a new situation. This is fine for the Bears if they are going with the bridge year approach we detailed under the Roquan Smith section. As long as you don’t sign another major incoming free agent coming back this way, Allen Robinson leaving would almost certainly generate a third-round compensatory pick.  

 

 


This one all boils down to Eberflus once again. Obviously, the general manager makes the decisions but Eberflus is a defensive specialist trying to create his ideal 4-3 defense. If he thinks Akiem Hicks is a good fit for the three-technique on the weakside, perhaps he retains Hicks. If not, then Hicks is almost certainly another guy that would generate a compensatory pick when he signs elsewhere. 
 

 


Makes sense to mention Bilal Nichols right after Hicks as he’s another candidate they could retain to play that three-technique position. If they are going with a bridge year, it makes a lot more sense to retain the guy you already have than bring someone in from the outside and risk offsetting that compensatory pick formula. 
 

 


Even if you plan to draft an interior offensive lineman, I think locking up James Daniels long-term at guard is a smart play. You still have the flexibility to move Whitehair to center if the guy you bring in is better suited for guard. Daniels would be one less player you need to try to replace from the outside. 
 

 


This is an easy one in my opinion - let him go. Andy Dalton is not the long-term answer for Chicago or Matt Nagy probably wouldn’t have been fired. This is just another chip that can be thrown into the compensatory pick formula in Chicago’s favor.  Dallas is actually set to get a fifth-round comp pick for the contract the Bears gave Dalton, so the Bears should get something back when another team signs him as well. For instance, Tyrod Taylor and Jacoby Brissett are projected to garner sixth-round picks and C.J. Beathard a seventh-round pick.
 

 


Once again, it’s all about the new scheme. Is Alex Ogletree the type of guy that fits as the middle linebacker in Eberflus’s 4-3 as a middle linebacker? A reasonable one-year deal could make sense for both sides as the Bears plan for the future. But if another team wants to throw money at him, let him go.

Jakeem Grant - Jakeem Grant is a solid guy to bring back regardless of the direction you are going. If you plan to go after big names at receiver, Grant is a Pro Bowl-caliber return man. If you plan to go with the bridge year, Grant can contribute on offense and he wouldn’t offset any compensatory picks as you are bringing back your own guy. I expect him back.


Honorable Mention Free Agents: Tashaun Gipson, Marquise Goodwin, Damiere Byrd, Jason Peters, Artie Burns, Jimmy Graham, Damien Williams
 

 


POSITIONS OF NEED (FREE AGENCY / DRAFT)

Wide Receiver - This position will be the number one indication of the direction the Bears are moving in. If they go after any big name in free agency, that offsets the compensatory picks they would have gotten back for guys like Robinson or Hicks so the full idea of the “bridge year” would likely be out the window. It’s obviously much more fun to speculate they go this route as Darnell Mooney is the only real wide receiver under contract and there are a number of studs out there like Davante Adams, Chris Godwin, Mike Williams, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Michael Gallup etc.

On the flip side, if they go with the bridge approach, they would want to potentially target a high-end receiver or two in the draft to give Justin Fields some weapons to grow with. Unfortunately, you would then be filling out the rest of the roster with whoever you can convince to do cheap one-year deals that won’t offset the compensatory pick formula as well as potentially bringing back guys like Marquise Goodwin and Damiere Byrd. A team like the Lions, who did the bridge year last year, opted for guys like Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman so that’s the kind of journeyman you’d expect. That’s not going to leave you with a lot of exciting options and it might be detrimental to your quarterback long-term.

Offensive Line - Whether you go bridge year or not, this needs to be a focal point of building the team. You need to protect Justin Fields and build this team from the trenches. The Bears don’t have a first-round pick because of the Fields trade last year but I would not be surprised to see them use early draft capital on a tackle or interior offensive lineman. Since you have needs all over and flexibility with your current guys, a “best player available” approach is likely the way to go, like what the Jets did last year taking Alijah Vera-Tucker. 

Defense - It feels like a broad brush here but we’ve made this clear throughout the article; when you bring over a guy like Matt Eberflus who is going to overhaul the scheme, you have to expect a lot of turnover. You need to figure out who can play the four defensive line positions. Even if you keep Eddie Jackson, you need a safety to play opposite him. Outside of Jaylon Johnson, you need depth at cornerback. And we don’t know if the linebackers on hand are equipped for the new system. This is looking like it’s going to be more of a slow build vs. just loading up this offseason and competing right away in 2022.

 

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