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2024 Player Outlook

2023 Recap: Guerrero Jr.’s power numbers continued to disappoint and with the new dimensions at Roger Centre making it a little harder for right-handed batters to hit home runs (he had a .391 SLG at home) his 48 HR 2021 season is looking more and more like an outlier. His launch angle was the highest of his career and Guerrero Jr. lowered his overall ground ball rate by the end of the season, however it was still above average and there were long periods where his ground ball rate was way above 50%. 

2024 Outlook: Guerrero Jr. still has immense talent, and xBA metrics suggest that last season’s .264 should have been much higher. He’s very capable, and it’s likely, that he’ll post a batting average in the .280 to .290 range and that he’ll hit 28 to 32 home runs this season, but it looks like the extraordinarily high ceiling projected for him when he first started his career may need to be taken down a notch.