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2024 Player Outlook

2023 Recap: While his K/9 was below nine for the second year in a row, Gray was excellent for Minnesota in 2023, despite what his win-loss record says. Overall, he went 8-8, but that 2.79 ERA 2.69 BB/9, and 1.15 WHIP were excellent for fantasy managers. His expected statistics indicate that his ERA should have been more in the mid-3’s, but that 2.83 FIP is right on par with his ERA. His 0.39 HR/9 was the lowest of his career, and his ground ball rate of 47.3 percent is better than last year’s 44.5 percent mark, and much closer to his career average that is up over 51 percent. Per Baseball Savant’s Run Value metric, Gray’s sweeper was one of the 10-best pitches in baseball, and the best of its kind in the game. 

2024 Outlook: If the St. Louis offense is there for him, Gray should be a relatively safe bet to reach 10+ wins for the first time since 2019, while helping your fantasy team with ratios. He can be drafted as an SP3 this season, and let’s hope for another year of good health, so that he can get to 170+ IP for the second straight season, which is actually something he hasn’t done since 2014 and 2015.