2025 Player Outlook
Gray threw his four-seamer at the lowest rate of his career in 2024 and upped the usage on his cutter (.287 BAA, 30.8% whiff rate). When you combine those numbers with career highs in O-Swing% (31.3%) and SwStr% (13.4%), it’s not as surprising to hear that Gray had the sixth-highest strikeout rate in 2024 amongst starting pitchers with at least 130 IP! His 3.84 ERA is not in line with his 3.12 FIP or 2.82 xFIP, and it’s reasonable to believe that his ERA will be closer to the low-to-mid 3s in 2025. At the same point, I expect a slight regression in his strikeout rate, and this St. Louis offense isn’t as potent as it has been in years past. Gray is still an above-average fantasy starter who should provide fantasy managers with plenty of innings and solid ratios, making him an ideal SP3/SP4.
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Sonny Gray allowed one run over five innings on Tuesday in a win over the Pirates.
Gray was lifted from the contest after needing just 71 pitches (44 strikes) to navigate five frames on a brutally cold night at PNC Park. He struck out four and didn’t hand out a free pass. A fourth-inning solo shot from Bryan Reynolds represented the lone tally against him. It was an extremely encouraging bounce-back performance after Gray was knocked around for five runs over six innings his last time out against the Angels. He’ll square off against the Astros on Monday at Busch Stadium.
Sonny Gray surrendered five runs in six-plus innings Wednesday in a no-decision against the Angels.
Gray was outstanding for six innings today, giving up only a homer to Mike Trout and amassing a 9/0 K/BB. The seventh, though, started with two singles and a bounced HBP on an 0-2 pitch to Nolan Schanuel. Gray’s next and final pitch was hit for a grand slam by Logan O’Hoppe. Obviously, it makes for a lousy box score, but this was an extremely encouraging outing from Gray after his rough spring and average season debut. With his velocity up by about one mph, he got 22 whiffs on 48 swings and had a 40% CSW. He’ll get the Pirates next.
Sonny Gray gave up a pair of runs over five innings while striking out six to pick up a win over the Twins on Thursday.
Gray was cruising through this contest before allowing a two-run blast to former St. Louis outfielder Harrison Bader. The veteran right-hander did give up a pair of walks, but he worked around them while generating 12 swings and misses. Not a dominant performance, but certainly a solid one to begin the 2025 campaign. Gray will get a chance to face off against the Angels on Wednesday if the rotation order doesn’t change.
Sonny Gray has been dealing with a flu-like illness throughout spring training.
It certainly helps explain some of Gray’s prolonged struggles this spring, but it doesn’t completely dismiss concerns regarding some diminished velocity. It’s important to note that the 35-year-old veteran is feeling better now and will make his Opening Day start on Thursday against the Twins.
DFS Last 5
Date | Opponent | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 8th | @Pirates | 19.5 |
| Apr 2nd | Angels | 17.3 |
| Mar 27th | Twins | 19.7 |
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