UFC on ESPN DFS Picks & Lineups: Covington vs. Buckley Cheat Sheet, 12/14

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley takes place this Saturday live from The Amalie Arena in Tampa Florida. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 7:00PM EST on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 10:00PM EST on ESPN2/ESPN+.

The Main Event features former champion Colby “Chaos” Covington taking on Joaquin Buckley for a ranking in the top 5 of the 170lb division. The co-main event faces off long-time UFC veteran Cub Swanson against all action Billy Quarantillo for what should be a front runner for the fight of the night.

Check out all the latest UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.

Now let's look at my UFC Fight Night cheat sheet for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups!

UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Covington vs. Buckley Cheat Sheet, 12/14

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

A great main event to end the year as former title challenger Colby Covington takes on rising prospect Joaquin Buckley. The power advantage lies fully with Buckley and early on I expect him to be able to win this fight, but once we get to Round 3/4/5 this fight is going to be much closer. Covington looked career worst last time out but even with that he was able to win Round 4 against Leon Edwards and he should be able to have some success here. Colby couldn't finish a plate of food at thanksgiving dinner so if anyone is winning inside the distance it'll be Buckley, but his lack of volume is a concern at his price. I'll probably have around 30% Colby, 30% Buckley and fade this fight in the rest.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

I don't want to put a 5-0 unknown fighter at the top of the picks, but Tokkos looks like he can't handle a punch. This fight probably ends early, and if it doesn't it'll get sloppy, but I think Stirling gets another KO here.

Maverick is takedown or bust in this fight and while she probably struggles to get the finish, I wouldn't be surprised to see her land 3-4 takedowns and 10+ minutes of control time which gives her a floor around 65pts before she even lands a punch. She is a safer play than Stirling with lower upside.

This is a tough fight to pin down, as Alvarez should have advantages everywhere, but Klose is someone who will stay to the outside and try to keep it a technical long ranged striking battle. Klose has routinely been poison for DK scoring but I think his durability is gone so Alvarez may be able to overwhelm him with volume and get the finish.

Petrino is going to wrestle, and if he doesn’t, he loses this fight cleanly. He doesn't land any significant strikes so he needs the control time to get the win, and while he isn't the greatest at finding the finish, Jacoby has looked like a shell of himself as of late so I could see it materializing here.

Kape shouldn't be this big of a favorite as someone who is such a low volume striker but here, he is. He has the power to KO anyone in this division but in over 15 minutes you'll be lucky if he lands 60 significant strikes so outside of a Round 1 KO, he isn't going to pay off his price tag.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

I don't trust Johnson, he is old and has had some terrible performances, but his ceiling is as high as anyone on the slate fighting Azaitar. Azaitar was caught on PEDs in his last UFC win (weird story where they were passing a bag of stuff to his room from an adjacent balcony and he said it was potatoes but then popped for PEDs post-fight) and since then he has been finished twice in the first round. Johnson can KO anyone if he lands clean and has been in there with the best of them. If it goes to decision, he probably scores under 80 but the R1 win is in play here.

Billy Q is the bigger fighter, and he should have the cardio advantage as well against the 41-year-old Cub Swanson. I actually think Billy finishes this ITD probably in the later rounds, but it should be a close fight when they are both fresh. Billy's durability has been a question mark lately, but I don't think Cub has anything that is going to be able to KO Billy.

I think this line should be -110 both sides so while we don't have real odds value (it's actually terrible odds for the price) I am still going to be heavy on Yanez. Yanez was being talked about as the best boxer in the division before his loss to Rob Font which was a major step up in competition for him. The UFC then ran him into a terrible matchup for a boxer in Jonathan Martinez who is known for landing nasty leg kicks. This fight should be close to a tossup, I'm betting on it to go deep into the fight but Yanez get the win.

Grant has fought some top ranked fighters in the division and has come out better more time than not (Chito Vera twice, Yanez, Martinez, Assuncao). This fight should almost entirely take place on the feet but if it does go to the ground, it will be Grant who takes it there, and anyone who has subbed Assuncao should probably be looking to use his ground game more. 

Padilla is going to catch a lot of ownership in his price range since he sits at +130 at $7600 compared to Yanez for $100 more and only +180. He has the KO upside in this fight, but Woodson is a tough test for anyone since he uses his enormous reach to stay at range. 

Woodson has been the hardest fighter recently for me to figure out. He has a massive reach and has used it to land 100+ significant strikes multiple times over his career but he isn't a finisher. Recently he started mixing in the wrestling a little bit so if he lands 100 significant strikes with 2 takedowns now, he has a chance to get a great score even in a decision. I won't have much of him, but I think fading him is a mistake.

Yanez is going to bring the fight and that's exactly what he needs to score well. He is a massive favorite here and has the finishing upside that is going to make him a popular midrange play. I'm high on this fight in general but if Marcos comes in around 40%, I'll be looking to be underweight to that.

Pay-Down UFC DFS Picks

High upside, low floor. Azaitar could be KO'd in the first round, or he could be the one dropping Johnson. I don't think he wins the fight but when he does it is with a big score.

Piera should be able to use her wrestling effectively early on and Knutsson really struggles to get off her back when she is taken down. I think she wins the fight straight up, but Azaitar has a higher ceiling due to his finishing ability.

Both of these fighters are fighting in a higher weight class than they normally do. Johns is durable and should have the wrestling advantage here due to his strength, but he doesn't normally rely on it too much. Lima is the quicker and more technical fighter, but I think this will be a close fight that likely sees the judges’ scorecards and, in that case, I want the underdog.

Kape is known for not doing enough and losing close fights so how he is a -330 favorite here is beyond me. I have bets on Silva over on his takedown props and think he should look to use it at some point during the fight. He is well rounded enough to keep this fight close and with his wrestling upside he should be able to score well in a decision. He is very unlikely to get a finish as Kape hasn't been KO'd or subbed since entering the UFC and he has been in there with Pantoja and other top contenders.

Petrino gassed out against Anthony Smith so if this stays on the feet Jacoby can pull it off. Petrino is so takedown reliant that the rest of his game just becomes a mess. Jacoby has been on a tough run lately but if he wins this fight is very clear on who wins depending on where it takes place.

I don't think Tokkos is UFC caliber, but it is two men with questionable at best defense who throw hard so either one of them can get dropped. He has a high ceiling, but he probably won't reach it.

Klose is one of the better fighters on the card, but he has a tough matchup in Alvarez. I don't think he'll want to wrestle and if he keeps it in the range that he can win this fight he probably scores under 70pts in a win. 

She has almost zero finishing upside, and she will be fighting off takedowns for almost the entirety of the fight. In a kickboxing match this would be a pick'em but with what she has shown defensively against inferior wrestlers, I can't pick her against Maverick.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC Fight Night Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Covington, Yanez, Grant, Johns

Covington vs. Buckley UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats