UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Playbook: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov Cheat Sheet

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov takes place this Saturday live from the Kingdom Arena in Saudi Arabia. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 12:00PM EST on ABC/ESPN+ and the Main Card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3:00PM EST.

The Main Event this week features a Middleweight fight that could be for the next title contender spot as Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker takes on Ikram Aliskerov in an action-packed fight. The Co-Main Event this week features former title challenger and arguably the most powerful striker in the UFC, Sergei Pavlovich, vs. fellow Russian fighter Alexander Volkov.

Check out all the latest UFC DFS picks, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. 

Now let's look at some top UFC Fight Night DFS picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC Fight Night, Whittaker vs. Aliskerov

Main Event

An interesting matchup at the top of the Middleweight Division headlines the card this week. Robert Whittaker was getting ready for Khamzat Chimaev before he pulled out due to food poisoning, but Aliskerov is a pretty similar matchup. Aliskerov is going to push forward and early on in this fight he should have the power and speed advantage but as the fight goes on Whittaker should be able to takeover. My only concern is that Whittaker has been wobbled early in a couple fights recently and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get caught here. Both of these fighters are great plays on DraftKings as either Aliskerov wins the fight within the first 1.5 rounds, or Whittaker takes over as he fades and puts up good volume and possibly some wrestling to go along with a later finish.

Expensive Fighters

Shara Magomedov gets a late notice replacement, so he is $8800 and a massive -600 favorite. His striking is miles ahead of Trocoli, but his wrestling is really lackluster. If the fight hits the ground he could be in trouble, but I think he keeps it standing for any prolonged amount of time he should be able to KO Trocoli. With his volume and willingness to throw strikes even off his back I think he has a floor of 85-90 pts.

This is a tough week for the high-priced fighters as they could be in closely contested fights, but if Rinat's wrestling is on point he immediately becomes the best DK play. If he can get takedowns, he'll probably rack up 45-50pts in takedowns+control time before landing a punch so in a decision win he can still score extremely well.

Riberio is a glass cannon, and he is either going to KO or get KO'd within the first 1.5 rounds. I don't think Gadzhiyasulov is great, but he is willing to wrestle, and I think that could help him slow this fight down enough so he can take over as it goes on. With his wrestling upside and Riberio either winning or losing fights early on he should be able to score well in a win.

Pavlovich is going to win by Round 1 KO, or he is going to get finished himself. If he lands clean, he can KO anyone, but he is giving up cardio, wrestling, and technical ability so if he doesn't get the early KO, he probably looks like he should have been the +200 underdog. High ceiling low floor GPP play.

This fight was supposed to be at 170lbs but Kelvin admitted he couldn't even make 180lbs so they had to reschedule it yesterday to 185lbs. Rodriguez had said he already cut below 180lbs for the fight before being notified so I'm expecting Gastelum to be the stronger fighter and if he uses his grappling he could have a serious advantage. I just don't trust that he has been training hard because if you can't even get close to the weight that you are supposed to make, something had to have gone wrong during the training camp.

Mid-Range Fighters

I think Walker is still getting better and Oezdemir has peaked in his career. If Walker lands something big, I expect him to KO Oezdemir flat, and while Walker has been KO'd in the past it has been by fighters who are younger and more talented than Volkan. If Walker doesn't get the finish the winner of this fight might only score 65 pts.

I think Long is the better fighter here, but both of these fighters are low level. Lee is probably the better wrestler, but when it is standing, I think Long should be able to piece him up. I am not overly confident in this fight one way or another but from what I've seen Long is the rightful favorite.

Naimov is physically strong, and Lima is coming up a weight class, so I expect him to be able to dominate this fight early. Naimov is one of my least favorite fighters on the roster as once he starts to fade, he blatantly cheats, landing multiple nut shots and grabbing the cage multiple times in his last fight. With that said in Saudi Arabia I think he'll get this win, and he has power to finish it early but at some point, I'll be looking to fade Naimov.

I haven't seen anything that tells me Gafurov can put up 70+ significant strikes in a fight and not gas out so I think Kang wins this fight in Rounds 2 and 3. I'm concerned he could get taken down, but Kang has a decent get up game and he should be able to at least keep the fight standing for long enough to win these rounds. 

Walker can be chinny sometimes so it's possible Oezdemir can turn back the clock and land clean, but I don't really see it. With only 11 fights getting a win at $8,000 is huge so I don't think he needs more than 85pts in a win to have a shot at the optimal lineup.

He's going to be popular as the favorite at $7,900 but I have concerns as he isn't someone who is a potent finisher and he is coming up a weight class. The crowd is going to be cheering for Naimov and that can impact the judges. I do think Lima to win by submission is interesting as Naimov has never been KO'd but it is still a tough test for him coming in here on short notice.

He can wrestle, and if he wins the fight, it's probably because he keeps the fight on the ground for a long period of time, so he has a high ceiling. His level of competition is terrible, so it is really tough to judge how talented he is, but he is willing to close the distance and for DK upside that is what we need.

Paydown Fighters

Volkov is a high ceiling low floor play, but he is going to have to avoid the power early. If he gets a takedown, he can probably dominate this fight as Pavlovich doesn't seem great at getting off his back, but I don't know if Volkov is going to even try to shoot. If he maintains distance, he could have success but it's only going to take one from Pavlovich to end this fight early.

I loved Rodriguez in this fight at 170lbs but now I have some concerns. He is the cleaner striker, but he always has had weak takedown defense and with the extra weight Kelvin may be able to get it down. I still want to bet against the guy who showed up nowhere near the weight the fight was supposed to be at, but I won't be surprised if this is a boring wrestling match.

Rinat isn't a great striker and if Dalby can keep it standing this is going to be a close fight. Dalby does his best work in Round 3, and I fully expect him to be able to control the fight if we get that far. Dalby is a tough click though because I'm banking on him losing Round 1, and I don't think he finds a finish so in a decision win he really is only going to have limited chances to score.

He has a huge ceiling, but he likely gets KO'd. His odds and his inside the distance line are almost identical so it's pricing him at about a 25% chance to win this fight. If he wins, he'll be on the optimal lineup and on an 11-fight card, 25% odds to win are plenty for a fighter priced at $6900.

He was originally matched up against Aliskerov in a fight last week but was rebooked against Shara. He's had a weird path to the UFC, winning on the Contender Series in 2019 before popping for steroids and not fighting for the organization after that. He is probably the better wrestler and if he uses it, he could be miles ahead here but if he is trying to make a statement in his return to the UFC by standing and trading shots, I don't think this ends well for him.

Gordon is my least favorite play this week and it's tough for me because he used to be one of my favorite fighters. I think his durability is on the decline, and he normally turns up the pace as the fight goes on and takes advantage of his tiring opponents, but Haqparast has put up 150 significant strikes multiple times in three round fights, so he isn't going to slow down. I'll still have some Gordon, but I don't want to be banking on someone who likely wins a decision when most of the other big underdogs on this slate can win by early KO/submission.

Sample UFC Fight Night DFS Lineup

Live Dogs

• Aliskerov, Volkov, Rodriguez, Kang

Whittaker vs. Aliskerov UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats