UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Moreno vs. Erceg Cheat Sheet, 3/29

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Erceg takes place this Saturday live from Mexico City. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00PM EST on ESPN2/ESPN+ and the Main Card at 7:00PM on ESPN2/ESPN+. This is a unique card as Mexico City is over 7,000 ft above sea level so the elevation can dramatically impact the cardio of some of these fighters.

The Main Event features former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno, taking on former title challenger Steve Erceg in an action-packed fight to move one of them one step closer to regaining a title shot.

Check out all the latest UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.

Now let's look at my UFC Fight Night cheat sheet for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups!

UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Moreno vs. Erceg Cheat Sheet, 3/29

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

We head to Mexico City this week where the biggest difference from a normal card is that the fights take place at 7000+ ft of elevation so if fighters aren't used to it, they will have their cardio impacted. This is a Flyweight fight where cardio normally doesn't come into play, but I still give a slight edge to Moreno since he has been in five rounds on multiple occasions. Moreno is the more well-rounded fighter and should have advantages everywhere, but this is going to be a close fight. Erceg was 5 minutes away from winning the title from Pantoja and ended up losing a decision, but his last fight ended with him getting KO'd. I lean Moreno in tournaments, and if you play cash games like double ups and head to heads, I would stack up this fight. 

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

This is a fade on Medina since I think he is one of the worst fighters in the UFC. Medina lost on Dana White's Contender Series, and lost in his UFC debut, but he is durable. Gautier is all power, and if he lands clean, he probably gets the KO. He has the highest ceiling on the card, but if this gets into Round 2, I don't know how his gas tank holds up at elevation.

Martinez is another fighter with a ton of power taking on a fighter who questionably shouldn't even be in the UFC. Oliveira's only chance for a win here is to find a submission, but as long as Martinez fights smart, he should be able to use his striking advantage and get the KO.

Rosas is getting better every fight, and he has a grappling advantage over almost anyone he faces. His only losses have come after gassing out hunting submissions in the first round, but he has started to pace himself better. As long as he doesn't gas out, he should win this fight, and with his takedown upside he should be able to score well even if this fight gets to the judges’ scorecards.

Emmers is another fighter with a clear power advantage at the top this week. He has the power to KO Miranda early, but he also has the wrestling to fall back on if he needs. He's one of the safer high-priced fighters, but the others feel like they have a better path to high volume and a high score.

Pyfer has a major speed advantage over Gastelum to start the fight. His only loss in the UFC was him winning the first two rounds and losing the next three after he slowed down. I don't think he is going to have to worry about that since this is only a three-round fight, so I expect him to get the early finish or hold on for the decision.

FIGHT HAS BEEN CANCELLED

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

Most of the ownership in the mid-range this week is going to be soaked up by the main event, but this fight is one that needs to be on everyone's DFS radar. Both of these fighters are a ton of action, and Dober is willing to take a big shot to land his own, so I expect someone to get KO'd. Dober has faced a higher level of competition and since I've seen his chin hold up against some really powerful strikers, I am going to back him this week, but this is going to be the fight that you need to get right to cash in DFS tournaments this week.

C-Rod has made a living out of dragging fighters into deeper waters and I expect the same this week. Early on this will be a competitive fight but the longer it goes the more it favors C-Rod. I have him winning by a late finish.

Borjas is another underdog who is a fast starter, so I expect him to win the early part of the fight with his striking. If the fight gets extended it will be close, but with Rodriguez missing weight I think Borjas looks like the fighter who is in better shape here.

Torres' best chance for a win is to try to use his submission skills, but Dober is tough to hold down. He has a high ceiling and an extremely low floor, so he is a tournament only play but if he does win, you'll be killing off one of the chalkier plays in Dober at the same time.

I haven't been impressed by Rodriguez, but he is gritty. He probably loses the early part of the fight and at $8500 that isn't something I want to pay up for. He can win if this gets deep, but I don't want to pay up for someone in a close fight that doesn't have a very high ceiling.

Costa didn't look good in his last fight against Fili, but he ended up with a submission win off of a bad takedown attempt from Fili. Rodriguez isn't someone who is going to be outworked so I expect Costa to be behind this entire fight.

Mederos doesn't throw a ton of volume, and while Hubbard isn't a great fighter he is someone who will work for the entire three rounds. Hubbard probably can't get a finish so his ceiling isn't that high but at his price a grindy fight with a few takedowns, and 70 significant strikes might be enough to help win a tournament.

Pay-Down UFC DFS Picks

Pichel comes out and fights once per year, but he always puts up a good fight. Rafa is powerful, but Pichel is someone who goes through the fire to wear down his opponents. This will be greasy to start, but Pichel could drag Rafa into a dog fight and take over in the third round.

Polastri has the better striking, but she is going to have to fight off Godinez wrestling. On the feet this should be a 50/50 fight, so it all comes down to how long it stays standing before Loopy gets the takedown.

Vergara is a good well-rounded fighter, but Chairez is going to outclass him in the power department. The volume landed should be close in this fight, so it all comes down to if Vergara can avoid the more powerful shots of Chairez. If anyone is going to get tired here, I think it will be Chairez.

Emmers has had some of the worst game plans in UFC history so I can't bank on him to fight smartly. Miranda is the better submission fighter, but he is basically a submission or bust. Emmers should look to keep it standing, but if for some reason he goes for a takedown and gets sloppy we could be looking at a first-round submission win for Miranda which would definitely get him on the optimal lineup.

Morales has great durability but he's going to be behind Rosas everywhere this fight takes place. He needs to wear down Rosas to win this fight but at the pace Rosas goes, it will be tough for Morales to keep up with him. His only real chance to win is Rosas tiring out from hunting a finish and that isn't something I want to back.

Gastelum is going to be the slower fighter with less power so it's tough to see him being a good DraftKings play. His best chance to win this fight is to tire out Pyfer but he isn't a chain wrestler, so I don't see him being able to slow him down.

FIGHT HAS BEEN CANCELLED

Gautier isn't a seasoned veteran so Medina could surprise him here. I don't see him having the power to finish Gautier early, but if this gets halfway through the second round, we don't know what Gautier's cardio looks like. He needs to make this a dog fight so that his cardio can make up for his lack of technical ability.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC Fight Night Lineup

UPDATED WITH CANCELLED FIGHT - Pyfer/Gastelum Has Been Canceeled

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Erceg, Pichel, Polastri, Borjas, Dober

Moreno vs. Erceg UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats