UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Emmett vs. Murphy Cheat Sheet, 4/5

UFC Fight Night: Murphy vs. Emmett takes place this Saturday live from The UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 6:00PM EST on ESPN/ESPN+ and the Main Card at 9:00PM on ESPN/ESPN+.

Two staples of the featherweight division meet this week as veteran Josh Emmett looks to hold his place in the rankings against undefeated prospect Lerone Murphy. Emmett is known for his one punch KO power, while Murphy will overload Emmett with volume. This main event is a great appetizer for the main event next week when we get UFC 314 in Miami!

Check out all the latest UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.

Now let's look at my UFC Fight Night cheat sheet for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups!

UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Emmett vs. Murphy Cheat Sheet, 4/4

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

Murphy is slowly developing into one of the more well-rounded fighters in the UFC, adding some nice take downs to his quick striking. He loves to stay at range, and in this matchup, he is best fit to be out there. Emmett has a ton of power so even one well-placed shot can end this fight, but if he doesn't this is Murphy's fight to win. I'm taking Murphy to win a decision, but with Emmett being off of an 18-month layoff, and 38 years old his durability could go at any time, so the KO is in play as well.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

Her odds have ballooned to -1000 which is insane since it was around -500 only a few days ago. She has the physicality advantage and should be able to get her grappling going against Belbita's less than impressive ground game. Barbosa by arm bar in Round 1-2 is my prediction, and with her safety as a -1000 she makes for the clear top play this week.

Finney is going to wrestle, and he is going to get takedowns, but it all comes down to how much else he does. Valentin has decent submission skills, so I don't want to be overly confident in Finney, but with Lookboome's lack of volume, and Kennedy's fight getting cancelled he's the clear number two this week.

Gurule is another solid wrestler towards the top of the price range this week. Ode is always live in Round 1 but the longer the fight goes on he should be able to take over. For me there is a clear cut-off after Barbosa and Finney, so I'll be prioritizing them.

Henry is someone who at his best can land 150+ significant strikes in a 3 round fight so even without much finishing ability he can still be a good play. He's going to have to land at least 100 significant strikes to win this fight because Falcao is going to have his moments. Henry is another fighter past their prime but so the durability is always going to come into question for me which is why I'm not overly confident.

Brito has a ton of power and is going to be able to outmuscle Sabatini, but he is going to have to keep up the pace or get the early finish because if he gasses at all Sabatini is going to be a threat for submission. He has a very high ceiling, but due to the level of competition I can't be as confident in him winning as some of the other fighters priced above $8600.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

Both of these women have good submission skills, but I think Alencar should be able to get the better of her. Demopoulos normally ends up being involved in DK fights that score pretty well so I'm more confident in playing this fight than most women’s low-level fights.

Both of these fighters can wrestle pretty well, but I think Romious should be able win the early parts of the fight. This fight looks close before it starts so taking the underdog is always going to be my play in that situation.

I'm picking McKee straight up in this fight but both of them are playable with how McKee normally fights. Although he hasn't won in the UFC, yet he has showed some talent and I expect him to have his moments again on Saturday. His volume is very high, and he even looked to mix in wrestling last time out so a high score in a decision is in play.

Uran has been in some wars so I can't question his heart stepping in on short notice. His wrestling is pretty good, but as a true light heavyweight he probably struggles here. He is giving up 40lbs in this matchup, so the takedowns won't come easy. You are paying the full price for him, so he is only a GPP contrarian play since he should be low owned.

Lee's wrestling is just as strong as Romious so early on this could be a really tough fight. Neither of them throws a ton of volume, but Lee lands two more significant strikes per minute so if it does stay standing, he should be more willing to exchange.

Demopoulos normally accepts fights getting to the ground because she likes to try for submissions, but she might try to keep it standing this week. If this hits the ground in a scramble it could be anyone’s fight so at $8000 Vanessa is worth a shot.

Pay-Down UFC DFS Picks

Buday gets a late replacement in Satybaldiev, and while Satybaldiev does have a decent skill set the biggest difference here is Buday having a 40lb weight advantage. If Buday keeps it standing he probably finds the finish. He'll be the highest owned fighter at -150 and only $7000 but even in a loss he won't kill your lineups.

Tavares is a decision specialist so GM3 is the more likely fighter to get a finish in this matchup. His submission skills if the fight hits the ground are much better than Tavares, but he is also a willing striker so he could win the fight there too. 

Finney is going to wrestle a ton, but he isn't always scoring with the judges because he doesn't do much. Valentin is going to look to have bigger moments, and it scores well with the judges he could steal a decision.

Sabatini has a huge ceiling if he can get on Brito's back and get the early sub. He doesn't have the most physicality to his game so it'll be tough for him to just muscle Brito to the ground but he is crafty so he could get his way to Brito's back.

Ode is always live in the first round of a fight which gives him a high ceiling, but he doesn't do himself any favors with his fight IQ. He should be the quicker fighter to start the fight, and I expect him to have success staying at range, but Gurule is probably too much.

Falcao could use some wrestling here, and he is going to have to make the more impactful strikes on Henry because he is going to lose the volume battle. The good thing about fighting someone like Henry is you know if Falcao wins, he has to score a ton of points on DraftKings because Henry is going to be pushing the action.

Belbita is moving up a weight class and it is going to be really hard for her to win this fight by giving up so much strength to Barbosa. I don't see a way she wins this outside of a lucky submission, likely after she gets taken down.

I actually think Nunes can win her fight more often than Belbita, but Loma is going to fight to a decision almost every time she fights. Nunes is a strong fighter in Round 1 so her striking may be enough for her to steal the first round. If her cardio can last into the later parts of the fight, there is a chance she can steal this.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC Fight Night Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Emmett, Sabatini, Romious, Meerschaert

Emmett vs. Murphy UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats