UFC 301 DFS Picks & Playbook - MMA Strategy & Cheat Sheet

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg takes place this Saturday live from the Rio de Janeiro Brazil. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00PM EST on ESPN/ESPN+ and finally the Main Card PPV on 10:00PM EST on ESPN+.

The main event features a Flyweight Title fight between “The Cannibal” Alexander Pantoja and the up-and-coming Steve Erceg. The co-main event is highlighted by the return of the King of Rio Jose Aldo as he looks to reclaim his spot in the top of the division against Jonathan Martinez.

Check out all of my latest UFC DFS picks and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC 300, Pantoja vs. Erceg

An unexpected title fight headlines the card this week as the champion Alexandre Pantoja faces challenger Steve Erceg. Pantoja has been a staple of the division for years and he has a strong all-around game. I think Erceg can win the early exchanges here but at some point, he is going to start to slow down. 

I think Pantoja should be closer to a -300 favorite in this matchup and I'm not sure how the line keeps getting closer as the week goes on. I'm not saying Erceg has no chance here, but I think this fight is too soon for him as it's only his 4th UFC fight and this is a major step up in competition.

Expensive Fighters: UFC 301 DFS

Pereira has looked great since his move up to 185lbs. Pereira should have power advantages especially early and I think he is able to get Ihor out of there in the first round. If this fight extends, he could fade, but I don't think this fight gets that far.

Caio is a "boring" fighter, and he should fight this with a smart game plan. Craig's only real chance is a submission off his back and while I respect Caio's ground game I think he opts to keep it standing here. I think Caio is one of the safest players on the card, but he doesn't have as good a ceiling if he isn't going to wrestle.

Petrino is taking a major step up in competition, but his takedowns should be more than enough to get past Smith. Petrino has a clear path to scoring well on DraftKings with a ton of takedowns and control time, so I think he'll be a popular play. Smith won't quit on himself so if Petrino struggles to get him out of there he better be ready to go all 15 minutes.

Orolbai at his best is going to get 10 takedowns and 13 minutes of control time while landing 15 strikes. He doesn't offer much outside of his wrestling, but Brener may be comfortable enough to want to hunt submissions off of his back which could lead to more points for Orolbai. He's one of the few fighters on this card that even in a decision victory could score 100+ points.

If this fight took place a few years back, I would probably be backing Vinc but at 41 years old he is a tough pick to make. Bonfim has a few wins in the UFC but I'm honestly not too impressed by him. There is a chance Bonfim makes quick work of Pichel, but I think this fight ends up looking a lot closer than a -500 should.

Mid-Range Fighters: UFC 301 DFS

Ruffy is getting moved to the top of the mid-range for two reasons. This guy has been in 10 professional MMA fights and all of them have ended by KO, and he's also -225 for $8,400 so that is some serious odds value. Mullarkey usually has cast iron durability, but in his last three fights he hasn't looked great so I think his chin might be fading. He is going to be the highest owned fighter for good reason.

Brito has a ton of power and early one he should be controlling this fight easily. Shore has decent wrestling, but I think Brito is going to be able to keep it standing long enough to get the win. Brito normally lands a few takedowns per fight also so I expect whoever is able to use their wrestling more effectively should win this fight. Unless Brito gases out, he is going to be the fighter more likely to get a knockout and put up a big score in this fight.

Costa has had a tough run in the UFC, but he has faced legitimate competition including the title challenger on this card Steve Erceg. Costa is the better wrestler and has better submission skills so I think he should have a clear advantage on the ground but on the feet this fight is close. Hopefully Costa goes and takes the easy path to victory instead of trying to give the crowd a show in the curtain opener.

Aldo has always been durable, and this is a major step down in competition to what he is used to facing. If he looks similar to the versions, we saw in recent UFC fights he should be able to keep this close, and if this hits the judges’ cards, I don't see them going against Aldo in Brazil if the fight is remotely close. Aldo also still has power in his hands so if he catches Martinez, I think he could put him out.

I think Gomis is the better fighter here, but he is extremely low volume. Gomis has power and probably has speed and technicality advantages as well, but he really needs a first or second round KO to get a high DraftKings score because he doesn't have much activity in the octagon. At $7,600 and -102 he would normally be a chalky play but with the volume concerns I think his ownership is kept in check. 

***** GOMIS HAS COME IN THREE POUNDS UNDERWEIGHT EVEN WITH CLOTHES ON, HE IS CLEARLY NOT 100% *****

FIGHT IS CANCELLED

If Shore is to win this fight, he needs to get it on the ground and wear out Brito, which is easier said than done. Shore has finished takedowns in all of his fights except his fight against Ricky Simon and he was dominated once he couldn't get it down. I'm picking Brito to win this but if Shore is on his game he has a clear path to a huge score with multiple takedowns.

I think Borjas has the striking advantage here so he could win this by KO, but he needs to keep it standing which he has struggled to do even in some of his wins on the regional scene. He gassed out in his UFC debut, but it was against Joshua Van who looks like someone who will routinely land 150+ significant strikes if you can't get him down so I don't expect that type of volume here. I think Costa gets it done, but Borjas is live for the KO and if he gets it at $8,000, he'll probably end up on the optimal lineup.

Paydown Fighters: UFC 301 DFS

Klose normally ruins the pace and scoring opportunities in his fights, so I don't expect much volume here. Silva has a ton of power and if he is going to win this fight it is going to be inside the distance so I'm a little less concerned about the volume here. If this fight gets to decision the winner probably only scores 75pts, because of that I'm leaning towards the underdog.

Brener is an absolute dog, and he trains with Charles Oliviera so I'm expecting this fight to be exciting, even if Orolbai tries to make this strictly a wrestling control fight. Brener has also shown that he will walk through the fire and has great durability so if this gets to a third round, I know Brener is going to still come forward and fight for our money.

Karolina has had a bit of a revival lately and has been putting up 150 significant strikes on average in her last two fights. I don't think she can end this fight inside the distance, but this version of Karolina has been having wars in the cage and coming out the other side. She's giving up power, and her wrestling is probably a little behind but if she puts up 125 significant strikes it might be too much volume for Lucindo to overcome.

I am a big Pichel fan, but at 41 years old I don't know if he has enough to get it done here. Bonfim is going to be quicker and more powerful to start this fight, so Pichel is going to have to bring him into deep waters if he wants to get the win here and that is a place Pichel has thrived in his career. I'm not confident he will win this fight, but I do have him in about 10% of my lineups because if wins even a low scoring decision it might be enough to hit optimal.

Potieria is moved from 205 to 185lbs and Pereira went from 170lbs to 185lbs, so Pereira likely won't have his normal strength/size advantages. Potieria is miles behind when it comes to wrestling here but he does throw up a ton of volume and the only way we have seen Pereira lose is by gassing out. I don't think Ihor survives the early onslaught but if he does, he should be able to turn the tides of this fight. At $6,600 there are far worse plays.

Smith is on a steep decline but has fought the much better competition compared to Petrino. Petrino has looked to slow later in fights and Smith is someone who always fights for your dollar. His takedown defense has been terrible but if he can keep this standing and wear down Petrino early I could see him winning the later rounds. 

At this point in his career, I don't think Smith is a better striker or grappler than Petrino, but I do know for a fact that he has been both the hammer and the nail in his fights, and he still comes out and shows heart either way. We do not know how a young undefeated prospect like Petrino is going to deal with adversity, and this might be the first time we see it here.

Kareckaite needs to keep it standing and I don't think she is able to here. Kareckaite is 5-0-1 but three of her wins are by split decision so she isn't running away with these fights, and I expect that here. 

Barbosa is a good submission grappler so she will likely look to get the fight to the ground and once there she should take over. Barbosa only has a 6-2 record and with both of these girls making their UFC debut you would think she would be the underdog but her competition on the regional scene was much better than what Kareckaite faced.

I think this is a bad matchup for Craig. Borralho has shown a really high fight IQ, so I expect him to keep this standing to avoid the submission skills of Paul Craig. Craig doesn't score any points for DK unless he gets a finish, so he needs a first or second round finish to pay off his price.

Sample UFC 301 DFS Lineup

Live Dogs

Erceg, Aldo, Shore, Borjas

Pantjoa vs. Erceg UFC 301 Picks & Stats