UFC 299 DFS Picks & Playbook: DraftKings MMA Strategy & Cheat Sheet
There were a LOT of #FAmily members at the top of the DraftKings UFC Leaderboard last week, and we'll look to keep the good times rolling with our DFS picks & playbook for UFC 299.
UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera takes place this Saturday, live from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00 PM on ESPNN/ESPN+, and finally the Main Card at 10:00 PM on ESPN+ PPV.
The Main Event features a rematch between Suga Sean O’Malley and Marlon “Chito” Vera in a fight that should be action packed from start to finish. The Co-Main Event faces off former Interim Lightweight Champion Dustin Poirier against the dangerous Benoit St. Denis.
As always, our UFC DFS Picks & Playbook will have a comprehensive list of odds, stats and matchup analysis for the entire fight card. As always, feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.
Now let's look at UFC 299's picks and top plays for your DraftKings UFC lineups.
DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC 299, O'Malley vs. Vera 2
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera | 9200/7000 | - | Stackability: Low | -270/+220 | 225./400. |
| Superstar Sean O'Malley tries to avenge the only loss of his career against Marlon "Chito" Vera in the main event this week. O'Malley has quicker hands, he's more technical, and he has a massive reach advantage. Chito has more pure power, and he is more well-rounded than O'Malley even though I wouldn't say he really relies on his ground game much. Vera has never been finished so I expect this to play out over 5 rounds where O'Malley is landing more, but Vera is landing the more powerful shots. I'll have about 50% O'Malley lineups, and 25% Vera lineups but if I'm playing cash games this is the fight that I am looking to stack up. At $9200 it is hard for a striker to pay off his price tag without knockdowns and with Vera's toughness I don't think they will be easy to come by, if O'Malley gets to a decision and lands under 175 strikes, he likely won't make the optimal lineup. It's rare that the challenger has more five round experience than the champion but we have never seen O'Malley go past the third round so it'll be interesting to see how he does once he gets that far. I expect this fight to go the distance, and while I do have O'Malley winning, this isn't one of the fights that I'm overly confident about. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Robelis Despaigne | 9300 | Josh Parisian | Somewhat-Safe | -345 | #N/A |
| O man, this doesn't feel comfortable, but it feels like I have to do it. Despaigne is an Olympic Taekwondo medalist, and he has insane power and reach, but we haven't seen much from him. His last three fights have lasted a combined 19 seconds, which would be great and lead him to break the slate, but we haven't seen him wrestle, and we don't know what his cardio will look like. Parisian hasn't had a good run in the UFC, so this is the UFC throwing a softball to a legend of the sport. He's either going to score 100+ or he probably gasses out and looks terrible, but I think he's likely scoring that 100+. I have him in about 50% of my lineups. | |||||
| Asu Almabayev | 9500 | CJ Vergara | Somewhat-Safe | -575 | #N/A |
| Asu dominated his UFC debut, and I think this might even be a step down in competition for him. He takes what is given and, in this matchup, he probably uses his wrestling and dominates. Even in Vergara's wins he hasn't had great first rounds, so I expect Asu to get on him early and find the finish. I'm probably taking Asu by submission once the line comes out, but I'll have him in a bunch of my lineups with the only thing limiting me from having more being his price tag. | |||||
| Benoit Saint Denis | 8900 | Dustin Poirier | Somewhat-Safe | -205 | -150 |
| I'm more confident in the winner of this fight making the optimal lineup than I am of the previous two, but this fight is more closely contested so I didn't want to rank BSD too high. He has power, he has submission skills, he has a great chin on him, the only hesitations I have are his cardio for Round 4/5 and this being a major step up in competition for him. Poirier might be on his way out and if BSD wins this fight it is going to be early which leads to a score of 100+. | |||||
| Mateusz Gamrot | 9400 | Rafael Dos Anjos | Moderate | -455 | 275. |
| Gamrot is going to need to wrestle here because he is behind RDA on the feet. RDA is getting older, but he doesn't seem to be slowing down much. I don't think this line should be this wide, and if Gamrot is going to win it is probably by decision, but he'll need 4+ takedowns if he wants to get this win so that could lead to a good score. Compared to the other high-priced fighters who need to land one power punch, or one submission, he'll need to put together 15 minutes of work to make the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Kyler Phillips | 9100 | Pedro Munhoz | Moderate | -238 | 300. |
| Phillips is faster and more athletic, but Munhoz is so durable that it's tough to see him getting the KO. At $9100 and two 5 round favorites priced around him he's going to need to be the first person to KO Pedro Munhoz to make the optimal lineup, and I don't see that happening. He probably wins the fight, but it probably won't score 100+. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ion Cutelaba | 8400 | Philipe Lins | Moderate | -120 | #N/A |
| This is strictly a GPP play. Cutelaba is going to push a pace, he's going to get takedowns early on and it all comes down to if he can find the finish. If this fight gets to Round 2/3, he is going to be holding on for dear life, but he doesn't score under 95 in any wins and at this price that is a great score. Both sides of this fight are in play. | |||||
| Philipe Lins | 7800 | Ion Cutelaba | Moderate | 100 | #N/A |
| Lins needs to survive the early onslaught, but if he does, he likely finds the KO. Even if it is a second or third round win, as an underdog it should be enough for him to contend for the top scoring underdog on the card. | |||||
| Curtis Blaydes | 8200 | Jailton Almeida | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | 180. |
| It's rare that for the Mid-range I start the plays off skipping the 8500-8800 range but the ceiling for the true mid-range is extremely high this week. Blaydes is the better striker, and is going to have 20lbs on Almeida, so he should be able to outmuscle him and get some takedowns. Almeida has shown he can wrestle also but he hasn't shown the cardio and ability that Blaydes has. You can play either side of this fight as they both have pretty high ceilings, but in my single entry contests I'm picking Blaydes. | |||||
| Kevin Holland | 8500 | Michael Page | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | 240. |
| Holland has the wrestling and grappling advantage if he wants to use it, but I expect this to be a striking battle. Holland is younger and hasn't shown any durability issues outside of his five-round fight with Wonderboy which was mostly due to him refusing to grapple at all and even letting Thompson back up. I think Holland likely wins a decision, but there is an outside chance he finds the KO. I'll have about 20% Holland, and I am looking to fade Page making his debut. | |||||
| Michel Pereira | 8700 | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Somewhat-Risky | -148 | #N/A |
| Pereira has been more technical and less flashy of late, but he still has great power and some good wrestling. Mikey O is live in Round 1, but if this fight gets extended it should be Pereira all day. I have a bet on Pereira, and although I'm more confident in him winning than the line suggests, I also know he doesn't throw a ton of volume so if he doesn't get the win in Round 1 it is hard for him to score enough to pay off his price. | |||||
| Maycee Barber | 8800 | Katlyn Cerminara | Somewhat-Risky | -205 | 300. |
| Barber is normally someone to target DraftKings as she likes to engage, wrestle, and push a decently high pace but Cerminara (formerly Chookagian) is someone who moves very well on the outside. Barber is going to have to find a KO on someone who has never been KO'd before and that isn't something I want to bet on, especially someone like Cerminara who has been in there with the top of the division. If I had to play one of these two on DK it would be Barber, but I'm likely fading both. | |||||
| Petr Yan | 8300 | Yadong Song | Risky | -125 | 450. |
| I'm a big fan of Yan but this isn't a good fight for him. Yan always starts slow, so he needs to KO Song to score well, and that is a tough ask. I don't like this fight for DK because both of these guys won't wrestle too much, and it would be unlikely any lands more than 100 strikes. The winner of this fight probably scores 70-80. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Gilbert Burns | 7600 | Jack Della Maddalena | Somewhat-Risky | 140 | 250. |
| Burns is taking a major step back in competition compared to his war with Chimaev, but he still has a tough task in front of him. Burns is the better wrestler, is a world champion Jiujitsu artist, and has shown cast iron durability outside of getting caught by Usman. I have a bet on Burns, I'm going to have plenty of Burns lineups, and I'm looking to fade JDM as I'm banking on Burns to at least be able to limit the offense that JDM puts forward. | |||||
| Dustin Poirier | 7300 | Benoit Saint Denis | Somewhat-Risky | 170 | 250. |
| Poirier has the highest ceiling of anyone in this range and even in a decision loss he probably scores 50 points. In his prime he would likely be the favorite here, but it's tough to know how much the KO against Gaethje took out of him. I'm still backing Poirier and putting a bet on him, but he has to make this fight play out over 4-5 rounds and take BSD into deep water if he wants to have a chance. | |||||
| Joanne Wood | 7200 | Maryna Moroz | Risky | 190 | #N/A |
| This is a weird pick to put so high up for someone who doesn't finish their opponents, but Wood normally lands 120+ significant strikes in her wins so that’s more than enough to make her in consideration. This is a rematch from years ago where Moroz won by submission, but I'm not confident this fight will get to the ground. I'm fading Moroz and I'll have about 20% Wood in my lineups. | |||||
| Michal Oleksiejczuk | 7500 | Michel Pereira | Risky | 124 | #N/A |
| I don't love the low range this week, but we have to play someone, and Mikey O has Round 1 KO power in his hands. Pereira has been on a streak and has a sneaky good defensive fighter but if Mikey O lands clean there aren't many who won't get dropped by it. | |||||
| Pedro Munhoz | 7100 | Kyler Phillips | Risky | 195 | 500. |
| Munhoz throws a ton of leg kicks, and if he can slow Phillips down and outwork him, he could be able to get a win. It's going to be tough for Munhoz to find him early on but eventually he'll be able to track him and Munhoz has shown he is tough enough that he isn't going anywhere. I'll have Munhoz lineups, and while he doesn't have the highest ceiling, he does have a decent chance to win this fight. He also has a sneaky guillotine if Phillips tries to wrestle that could end the fight quickly. | |||||
| Rafael Dos Anjos | 6800 | Mateusz Gamrot | Risky | 350 | +1,000 |
| This is probably a sign of my age, but RDA has shown he can wrestle with anyone in the division and I'm banking on it here. He's durable, and Gamrot isn't much a finisher and no one has really been able to keep him down outside of when he moves up to the 170lb divisions. I'll only have 10-15% of this fight total but most of it will be RDA. | |||||
| Josh Parisian | 6900 | Robelis Despaigne | Risky | 250 | #N/A |
| Parisian needs to survive the early storm but if he does Despaigne is a complete unknown. He probably has the wrestling advantage even though that isn't something that Parisian normally relies on. Despaigne is going to be one of the highest owned fighters on the card, so if Parisian wins you get a fighter in your lineup that is under 10% owned, while also knocking out 50% of all remaining lineups. | |||||
| Katlyn Cerminara | 7400 | Maycee Barber | Risky | 170 | +1,000 |
| She doesn't score well in her wins outside of one win where she used her wrestling against a kickboxer but that isn't the case here. If she wins, she probably lands 80-100 strikes, scores around 65-70 and that seems to be her ceiling. If you play her in a tournament, you need her to win, and everyone priced below her to lose otherwise she won't make the optimal lineup. | |||||
Sample UFC 299 DFS Lineup
Live Dogs
Vera, Poirier, Burns, Almeida, Lins
O'Malley vs. Vera UFC 299 Picks & Stats
Sean O'Malley | vs. | Marlon Vera |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 17-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 23-8-1 |
12 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 10 |
-270 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Dustin Poirier | vs. | Benoit Saint Denis |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 29-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-1-0 (1 NC) |
14 | Knockouts | 4 |
8 | Subs | 9 |
170 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Kevin Holland | vs. | Michael Page |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 25-10-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 21-2-0 |
14 | Knockouts | 13 |
7 | Subs | 3 |
-130 | Vegas Odds | 110 |
Gilbert Burns | vs. | Jack Della Maddalena |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 22-6-0 | Record | Record: 16-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 11 |
9 | Subs | 2 |
140 | Vegas Odds | -166 |
Petr Yan | vs. | Song Yadong |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 16-5-0 | Record | Record: 21-7-1 (1 NC) |
7 | Knockouts | 9 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | 105 |
0 | ||
Curtis Blaydes | vs. | Jailton Almeida |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 17-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 20-2-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 7 |
0 | Subs | 12 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
Katlyn Cerminara | vs. | Maycee Barber |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 18-5-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 4 |
1 | Subs | 9 |
170 | Vegas Odds | -205 |
Mateusz Gamrot | vs. | Rafael Dos Anjos |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 23-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 32-15-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 11 |
-455 | Vegas Odds | 350 |
Pedro Munhoz | vs. | Kyler Phillips |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 20-8-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 5 |
8 | Subs | 2 |
195 | Vegas Odds | -238 |
Ion Cutelaba | vs. | Philipe Lins |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 17-9-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 17-5-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 9 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
-120 | Vegas Odds | 100 |
Michel Pereira | vs. | Michal Oleksiejczuk |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 29-11-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 19-6-0 (1 NC) |
11 | Knockouts | 14 |
7 | Subs | 1 |
-148 | Vegas Odds | 124 |
Robelis Despaigne | vs. | Josh Parisian |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 4-0-0 | Record | Record: 15-7-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 11 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-345 | Vegas Odds | 250 |
CJ Vergara | vs. | Asu Almabayev |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
| Record: 12-4-1 | Record | Record: 18-2-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 3 |
0 | Subs | 9 |
425 | Vegas Odds | -575 |
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