MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Strickland vs Magomedov Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Magomedov headlines our MMA DFS picks and UFC daily fantasy slate on DraftKings this weekend. The fight card kicks off from the UFC Apex on Saturday with the Prelims at 4:00 PM ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the Main Card ESPN/ESPN+ at 7:00 PM ET. The main event features top UFC middleweight Sean Strickland in a matchup against former PFL contender Abus Magomedov. A win in this fight could move Strickland into the top-5 of the division and one fight closer to title consideration. The co-main event showcases 19-1 Grant Dawson against technical striker Damir Ismagulov, who holds a 24-2 record in what should be a closely contested fight at lightweight. Picking the right UFC DFS picks from these two fights could go a long way to cashing your MMA DFS lineups this weekend. In the small cage of the UFC Apex, all of the matchups on this UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Magomedov fight card should showcase a ton of action and a lot of finishes! Check out all the latest UFC odds, stats, UFC predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below. As always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays on DraftKings for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Magomedov
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Sean Strickland vs Abus Magomedov | 8500/7700 | - | Stackability: Low | -150/+130 | +220/+180 |
| Strickland takes on former PFL alum Magomedov in a five round main event in the 185lb division this week in an exciting matchup that features two potent strikers. Strickland lands more volume and has shown better durability outside of the Alex Pereira fight, so he'll likely look to bring the fight into later rounds, while Abus looks to land powerful punches in the early rounds. I don't really understand this line as I thought Sean would be closer to -225 or -250 with all of the question marks behind Abus so I'll be overweight on him here and have a bet on him, but Abus' path to victory is an early knockout so if you are playing multiple lineups you'll want to have some with him as well. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Joanderson Brito | 9600 | Westin Wilson | Somewhat-Safe | -1400 | -500 |
| Brito is a massive favorite against the newcomer Westin Wilson, and I expect him to absolutely roll in this matchup. Brito is the highest priced fighter so even if he scores 110pts you'll need some help from your underdogs to make the lineup work, but I'm going to be overweight to the field here because of the safety of the play. Wilson wins most of his fights by submission so I expect him to try to get the fight to the ground, but Brito is an absolute tank who should be able to outmuscle him. Brito by R1 KO is my prediction. | |||||
| Ismael Bonfim | 9200 | Benoit Saint Denis | Somewhat-Safe | -333 | -105 |
| Bonfim looked levels above Terrance McKinney in his debut and I expect him to be the better striker here as well. Saint Denis showed his toughness in his UFC debut so it will be tough for Bonfim to knock him out clean, but he should be able to find a stoppage. Saint Denis is going to try to get this fight to the ground and with this being in the smaller cage of the UFC Apex he should have some success so Bonfim will have to show his ability to get up, but I think he'll be game for the fight. | |||||
| Guram Kutateladze | 9400 | Elves Oliveira | Somewhat-Safe | -704 | -110 |
| Another massive favorite here in the top of the salary range. Guram was thrown to the wolves in his first two UFC fights, getting matched up with Gamrot and Damir Ismagulov who are both firmly in the top15 of the division. Hopefully Kutateladze uses his wrestling here to score well, add to that his finishing ability that he showed prior to getting into the UFC and I think he could score more than Brito. If he doesn't try to wrestle and just relies on his striking, he won't throw enough volume to score well in a decision. | |||||
| Michael Morales | 9000 | Max Griffin | Moderate | -250 | +150 |
| Morales has a tough matchup in Griffin this week and it is much better competition than he has faced but I'm confident he will get the win here. He's -250 at $9000 a few weeks after -300 was in the $9500 so we are getting a pretty big discount compared to normal slates. Morales is the better striker and wrestler here, but Griffin has the ability to make fights gritty and grind on his opponents and with this being in the small cage I think that favors him a little bit. If Morales fights smart and mixes in one or two takedown attempts per round, he should take this and score well, but if Griffin reaches the final bell, it'll be tough for Morales to outscore either Brito or Kutateladze, so I think he'll be a little overlooked. | |||||
| Ivana Petrovic | 8900 | Luana Carolina | Moderate | -220 | +190 |
| Petrovic should be the lowest owned of the high-priced fighters and she has shown finishing ability on her regional tape so she could be able to find a submission in this matchup. I'll probably end up playing her in about 10-15% of my lineups but if she doesn't get the fight to the ground Carolina likes to play the ranged striking game and that can be terrible for scoring. Petrovic has also gone four rounds in a fight before so I'm confident in her ability to push the pace for all fifteen minutes here. I'll be underweight on this fight as a whole but firmly believe all of the upside is with Petrovic. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Melissa Gatto | 8700 | Ariane Lipski | Moderate | -225 | +130 |
| Lipski is the perfect dance partner for what Gatto likes to do. Gatto is going to look to pressure, mix in wrestling and land powerful shots. Lipski is always looking to come forward so hopefully that makes this fight an all-out war. At -225 I think Gatto is going to get a lot of ownership and wouldn't be surprised if she ended up in the 25-30% owned range, so this is one of the few woman's fights that won't come in low owned. | |||||
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 8800 | Kevin Lee | Moderate | -200 | +190 |
| Rinat needs to survive the first round against Lee, because despite all of Lee's flaws he always wins the first round. Lee looked terrible last time out against Diego Sanchez and if we see that version of him here, he is going to get rag dolled for the second half of this fight and that is what I'm expecting. Rinat hasn't shown much in the UFC having two wins, but he scored 13+ minutes of control time in each of his first two fights so he was never in compromised positions. Rinat should be able to score some takedowns the later the fight goes, but what I'm viewing as a low chance to win in the first round means I'm going to limit my exposure to him compared to the 25% ownership I expect him to come in at. | |||||
| Brunno Ferreira | 8400 | Nursulton Ruziboev | Somewhat-Risky | -225 | -170 |
| Ferreira has a ton of power, but he is going to be giving up a ton of reach and height in this matchup. He is the better striker, and he has one of the highest ceilings on the slate, so he makes for a great tournament play. Ruziboev is much longer, and has better submissions, so Ferreira is going to have to try to navigate the distance but this is something he has been dealing with his whole career so I think he should be able to get it done. This fight is one of the more likely fights to have the winner hit the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Karol Rosa | 8600 | Yana Santos | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +375 |
| Rosa throws a lot of volume and with this being at the Apex I'm expecting her to land 100+ strikes in a win here. Santos is tough so I don't think Rosa gets the finish, but skill for skill I'm favoring Rosa. She makes for a good low owned contrarian play as I think she is the lowest owned fighter priced above $8300. | |||||
| Alexandr Romanov | 8300 | Blagoy Ivanov | Somewhat-Risky | -138 | +140 |
| Romanov has about three minutes of cardio if he comes in in great shape, and if he comes in pushing 265lbs he likely won't even have that. Ivanov has legendary durability but if anyone can crack it, it would be a fresh Romanov. This is a high ceiling, low floor play but if he does win it is going to be in spectacular fashion. | |||||
| Grant Dawson | 8000 | Damir Ismagulov | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +275 |
| I think Dawson should be a bigger underdog in this spot, but of the two fighters I'd rather roster him. Dawson should look to mix in his wrestling and striking here, and while Ismagulov is the more technical striker I'm valuing Dawson's volume and durability over the technical striking in this matchup. | |||||
| Blagoy Ivanov | 7900 | Alexandr Romanov | Risky | +110 | +320 |
| Ivanov is going to lose round 1, but a second or third round finishes in a sloppy fight with Romanov firmly in play. Everyone of Ivanov's fights in the UFC has gone to decision and I think that finally comes to an end this weekend and has likely the lowest owned fighter on the slate I'm going to take a chance. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 7800 | Brunno Ferreira | Somewhat-Risky | +180 | +275 |
| Ruziboev has one of the better inside the distance lines for the underdogs this week. He has a ton of experience with over 40 professional fights and has a massive height and length advantage here. If he wins the fight, it's likely by submission so he makes for a great high ceiling, low floor underdog play. | |||||
| Yana Santos | 7600 | Karol Rosa | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +650 |
| Santos is a weird play this week, but I feel like she can score in this matchup. Santos whether she has her back up against the cage, or she has her opponent on the cage, will repeatedly throw tiny strikes at her opponents which has resulted in her landing 200+ total strikes in multiple fights. With that type of volume and any strike scoring minimum 0.2 pts each, she could score 90+ even in a decision win if her volume is on point this week. | |||||
| Kevin Lee | 7400 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | Risky | +170 | +400 |
| Lee should come in with a bunch of ownership as a big name in the low end of the price range this week, but at his best he dominates this fight. Lee has been to wars with Charles Oliveira, Tony Ferguson, and RDA, he has derailed hype trains like Gregor Gillespie, and more importantly he is coming in off of a 15-month break and had both of his knees repaired in the process, so this is his fight to lose. I expect Lee to win round 1 and showcase his superior wrestling, but eventually it will come down to if his gas tank can hold on and this week, I'm betting that it does. | |||||
| Ariane Lipski | 7500 | Melissa Gatto | Risky | +188 | +750 |
| Lipski is one of the rare fighters on this slate that I think has a high floor. Lipski mixes in her striking and wrestling pretty well when she has the advantage, but I think in this matchup she may just look to keep it standing. Her ceiling is only based on the volume she throws out since I don't think she is getting the finish here. She should be pretty low owned in tournaments so if you want to play her you likely will have a unique lineup. | |||||
| Luana Carolina | 7300 | Ivana Petrovic | Risky | +180 | +1,100 |
| Carolina normally has the reach advantage in her fights, but Petrovic is bigger than her in this matchup. I don't like Carolina's ceiling because she likely won't win inside the distance, but she could land 100+ significant strikes in a win and at her price that might make her the piece you need to win a tournament. | |||||
| Max Griffin | 7200 | Michael Morales | Risky | +200 | +425 |
| Griffin is a veteran and is normally in tightly contested fights. He has been in multiple split decisions and hasn't been KO'd or submitted outside of a fight against Colby Covington 7 years ago. If this fight gets to round 3 and it is one round a piece, I think Griffin's experience will shine through and put him in line for a tightly contested decision. For me he is slightly behind Lee, and in the same bucket as Lipski and Carolina. | |||||
| Benoit Saint Denis | 7000 | Ismael Bonfim | Risky | +250 | +550 |
| I think Saint Denis could be a staple in the bottom end of the division for a while, but this is a terrible matchup for him. He needs to wrestle, and I don't even know if he is the better wrestler in this matchup. Bonfim probably hurts him at some point during this fight and unless Bonfim makes a mistake, I don't think Saint Denis has much of a chance. | |||||
| Westin Wilson | 6600 | Joanderson Brito | Risky | +800 | +1400 |
| Wilson trains with Stephen Thompson, but most of his wins are by submission. His best chance is to find a guillotine choke if Brito makes a mistake, but Brito likely just keeps this as a standing fight. I don't think this fight makes it out of round 1. | |||||
UFC DFS Example Lineup
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Magomedov Live Underdogs
- Magomedov +130
- Kevin Lee +170
- Nursulton Ruziboev +180
- Yana Santos +140
- Blagoy Ivanov +110
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Magomedov Stats and Picks
Sean Strickland | vs | Abus Magomedov |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 26-5-0 | Record | Record: 25-4-1 |
10 | Knockouts | 14 |
4 | Subs | 6 |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
Damir Ismagulov | vs | Grant Dawson |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 24-2-0 | Record | Record: 19-1-1 |
12 | Knockouts | 4 |
1 | Subs | 13 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
Max Griffin | vs | Michael Morales |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 19-9-0 | Record | Record: 14-0-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 11 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
+200 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
Ariane Lipski | vs | Melissa Gatto |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 15-8-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-2 |
6 | Knockouts | 2 |
3 | Subs | 4 |
+188 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
Ismael Bonfim | vs | Benoit Saint Denis |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 19-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 (1 NC) |
9 | Knockouts | 2 |
4 | Subs | 8 |
-333 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
0 | ||
Brunno Ferreira | vs | Nursulton Ruziboev |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 10-0-0 | Record | Record: 34-8-2 |
7 | Knockouts | 12 |
3 | Subs | 20 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
Kevin Lee | vs | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 18-7-0 | Record | Record: 20-1-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
8 | Subs | 13 |
+170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Joanderson Brito | vs | Westin Wilson |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 14-3-1 | Record | Record: 16-7-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
6 | Subs | 11 |
-1400 | Vegas Odds | +800 |
Yana Santos | vs | Karol Rosa |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 14-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 4 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
+140 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
Guram Kutateladze | vs | Elves Brener |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-3-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 1 |
1 | Subs | 11 |
-704 | Vegas Odds | +500 |
Ivana Petrovic | vs | Luana Carolina |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-4-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 2 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
-220 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
Alexandr Romanov | vs | Blagoy Ivanov |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 16-2-0 | Record | Record: 19-5-0 (1 NC) |
6 | Knockouts | 6 |
9 | Subs | 6 |
-138 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
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