MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Holm vs. Silva Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Silva headlines our MMA DFS picks and UFC daily fantasy slate on DraftKings this weekend. The fight card kicks off from Las Vegas with the Prelims at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10:00 PM ET. This card features Holly “The Preacher’s Daughter” Holm against rising Bantamweight Mayra Buena Silva in a main event matchup. The winner of this fight could move these women into possible title contention for Amanda Nunes’ vacated title. Also, an absolute war starts off the main card in Terrance McKinney vs Nazim Sadykov in a “blink and you’ll miss it” fight that should be over before the judges are needed. The winner of that matchup might be among the top UFC DFS picks this weekend.
Check out all the latest UFC odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Silva
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Holly Holm vs Mayra Bueno Silva | 8600/7600 | - | Stackability: Low | -175/ +145 | +400/+300 |
| Long-standing top 5 contender Holly Holm headlines the card this week against up-and-comer Mayra Bueno Silva. Holm is 41 years old so at some point she is going to slow down, but she has looked as good as ever in her recent fights, so I don't see her losing this matchup. This is a huge step up in competition for Silva so I'm going to lean on Holm's experience, and I think she takes this decision. Holm isn't a lock for a high score, so this isn't a "lock it in" type of main event but I still think she has a decent chance at putting up 90+ in a decision. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 9700 | Bassil Hafez | Somewhat-Safe | -550 | -376 |
| There isn't much to love on this card in terms of big favorites, but Jack Della steps in after his fight last week was pushed back, and he gets a new opponent here. I still think Jack is the better striker and he should be able to win this fight inside the distance, but Bassil is experienced and with Jack having to cut weight twice in back-to-back weeks maybe he shocks us. | |||||
| Azat Maksum | 9600 | Tyson Nam | Somewhat-Safe | -400 | -120 |
| Azat has better wrestling, better volume, and is more technical. Nam has one-shot counter striking power and that's really all I expect him to try to do. Nam is nearing 40 years old, and the UFC looks to be using an aging veteran to try to make a name for a rising prospect, and I think Azat is good enough to get it done here. Nam tends to slow his opponents with the threat of his power, so in a decision win I think Jack outscores him. | |||||
| Evan Elder | 9400 | Genaro Valdez | Somewhat-Safe | -300 | -163 |
| Valdez is hittable and is going to look to just trade shots in the pocket. Elder needs to avoid getting dragged into a street fight because Valdez can crack and has a pretty solid chin. Elder lost his last fight due to a cut stoppage, but he won the first two rounds in that fight, so the loss is a little misleading on how the fight actually went. I think Elder gets it done inside the distance. | |||||
| Melsik Baghdasaryan | 9200 | Tucker Lutz | Moderate | -160 | +200 |
| If this fight stays standing Melsik is going to KO Lutz, but Melsik has terrible takedown defense. I'm avoiding this play in cash games, but for tournaments, the -160 at $9200 is going to reduce his ownership and it only takes one shot for him to end this fight early. | |||||
| Melquizael Costa | 9100 | Austin Lingo | Moderate | -225 | +200 |
| Costa is coming off a tough UFC debut in Thiago Moises and he takes a step back here against Lingo. I expect Costa to be quicker and just one step ahead in general here, but Lingo is tough and has never been knocked out so unless he's going to be the first man to KO Lingo, he's going to need to win by submission if we expect him to put up a huge score. Costa by sub in round 2 is my pick for how this fight ends up. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Nazim Sadykhov | 8700 | Terrance McKinney | Moderate | -145 | +105 |
| Anyone fighting McKinney has the potential to break the slate because McKinney's fights always end inside the distance. The first five minutes of this fight will be a war as McKinney is a problem when he is fresh, but if this hits the second round, I expect Nazim to KO McKinney in either round 2 or 3. | |||||
| JunYong Park | 8500 | Albert Duraev | Moderate | -145 | +230 |
| Duraev wrestles in a lot of his fights but it is more out of necessity against power strikers than it being his best talent. Park scores takedowns at a higher rate and shoots them more frequently so I think he gets it down on the ground and dominates this fight. Park also throws more volume so even in a decision, I think he gets the nod from the judges. | |||||
| Alexander Munoz | 8300 | Carl Deaton | Somewhat-Risky | -185 | +120 |
| Munoz throws a good amount of volume, has good offensive wrestling and Deaton can't stop takedowns so what is there not to like in this matchup? The answer to that is Munoz hasn't won a fight since 2018 when he was on The Contender Series. He lost his only two UFC fights and has been off since early 2021 so that's a pretty big red flag, but if the version of himself that fought previously shows up on Saturday night, he should win this easily. At -185 and only $8300 he is probably going to get a lot of ownership. | |||||
| Francisco Prado | 8200 | Ottman Azaitar | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +135 |
| The youngest Prado looks to get on the right track in this matchup against Azaitar. The fight is -435 to end inside the distance so I'll be backing the young fighter, instead of the one who was recently KO'd in the first round by Matt Frevola. Skill for skill these guys are pretty similar, but I'll be backing the younger fighter who hasn't shown chin issues. | |||||
| Chelsea Chandler | 7800 | Norma Dumont | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +280 |
| Dumont is strong and normally lands a takedown or two in every fight, but Chandler is my pick here due to the amount of volume she puts out. Dumont has multiple fights that went to decision and landed fewer strikes than Chandler landed in the first round of her UFC debut. This fight could be greasy if it gets to the judges’ scorecards, so I'll be taking the underdog for that reason. | |||||
| Ottman Azaitar | 8000 | Francisco Prado | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +160 |
| Azaitar was a favorite in his loss to Frevola and he had some serious power to end this fight early. Between this fight and the McKinney fight I want some of both sides in my lineups. | |||||
| Norma Dumont | 8400 | Chelsea Chandler | Risky | -145 | +500 |
| Dumont should be the stronger fighter here, but her lack of volume as a favorite is a bit of a concern. Chandler looked great against a 125lb fighter but this is up at 145 lbs so Dumont could just dominate it with clinch work and wrestling. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Terrance McKinney | 7500 | Nazim Sadykhov | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +140 |
| McKinney is either going to score 10pts or 110pts and there really isn't an in-between. In the first round, he's going to be faster, stronger, a better wrestler, and more volume than Nazim so he should win the first round. I have no confidence in him being able to fight for more than five minutes, so if he doesn't get Nazim out of there, he will be in big trouble. He's going to be my highest-owned fighter in this price range. | |||||
| Ashlee Evans-Smith | 7400 | Ailin Perez | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +600. |
| Evans-Smith hasn't fought in 3 years, but if she shows up looking how she used to fight she should be the more active fighter here. It's unlikely this fight ends inside the distance, so I'll probably be leaning on Evans-Smith or fading the fight altogether. | |||||
| Genaro Valdez | 6800 | Evan Elder | Risky | +230 | +400 |
| Valdez has had two pretty tough matchups in his debut, and he has a ton of power so he might be able to hurt Elder. Compared to last week's card +230 for $6800 is a huge discount, and he has a decent inside-the-distance for that big of an underdog. I'll be taking some chances in this matchup. | |||||
| Austin Lingo | 7100 | Melquizael Costa | Risky | +180 | +350 |
| Most of Lingo's attacks are pretty basic and he never seems to really be chasing the finish, and he hasn't knocked out anyone since he joined the UFC in 2019. Costa is still young and while he showed a good account of himself against Moises, he still was dominated for most of that fight. Lingo is a savvy veteran and winning a close decision is definitely a possibility for him. | |||||
| Tucker Lutz | 7000 | Melsik Baghdasaryan | Risky | +135 | +350 |
| Lutz needs to wrestle, and if I was confident that he was going to I would be higher on him. That said, he is +135 at only $7000 so he's going to be extremely highly owned and for good reason. If he wins, he probably scores well enough to hit the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Istela Nunes | 6900 | Viktoriia Dudakova | Risky | +155 | +350 |
| Nunes is one of the few women who really gasses out after the first few minutes of a fight. If Dudakova can withstand the storm for the first five minutes she probably wins the fight, but at $6900 I'll take a fighter who is probably going to win round 1 as long as she can avoid getting taken down. | |||||
| Tyson Nam | 6600 | Azat Maksum | Risky | +300 | +600 |
| Nam is old, but he still has power in his counterstriking that could knock out anyone. If this was the prime version of Nam, this fight is probably lined closer to -150, but unless he lands the perfect punch, he is going to get out of volume and lose this fight. | |||||
| Bassil Hafez | 6500 | Jack Della Maddalena | Risky | +400 | +550 |
| Hafez isn't a young up-and-coming prospect, but a fully developed 33-year-old fighter. Bassil is a risky play, especially on a card where fighters in the $6900-7100 range are less than +200 underdogs but he should be a big contrarian play. If he wins this fight, he is going to eliminate around 40% of the lineups that play JDM, but in all likely hood he probably gets knocked out. | |||||
UFC DFS Example Lineup
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Silva Live Underdogs
- Mayra Bueno Silva +145
- Terrance McKinney +120
- Ottman Azaitar -105
- Chelsea Chandler +120
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Silva Stats and Picks
Holly Holm | vs | Mayra Bueno Silva |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-1 |
8 | Knockouts | 1 |
0 | Subs | 7 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Jack Della Maddalena | vs | Bassil Hafez |
$9,700 | DFS Salary | $6,500 |
| Record: 14-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-1 |
11 | Knockouts | 1 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
-550 | Vegas Odds | +400 |
Ottman Azaitar | vs | Francisco Prado |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 13-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 6 |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
Albert Duraev | vs | JunYong Park |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 5 |
9 | Subs | 5 |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
Norma Dumont | vs | Chelsea Chandler |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 5-1-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 2 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
-145 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
0 | ||
Nazim Sadykhov | vs | Terrance McKinney |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
8 | Subs | 1 |
-145 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
Tucker Lutz | vs | Melsik Baghdasaryan |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 1 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
+135 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
Viktoriia Dudakova | vs | Istela Nunes |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 6-4-0 (1 NC) |
1 | Knockouts | 2 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
-190 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
Austin Lingo | vs | Melquizael Costa |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 19-6-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 6 |
+180 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
Evan Elder | vs | Genaro Valdez |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-300 | Vegas Odds | +230 |
Tyson Nam | vs | Azat Maksum |
$6,600 | DFS Salary | $9,600 |
| Record: 21-13-1 | Record | Record: 16-0-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 7 |
+300 | Vegas Odds | -400 |
Alexander Munoz | vs | Carl Deaton |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 6-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 (2 NC) |
2 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 9 |
-185 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
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