MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Gane vs Spivac Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs Spivac live from Paris kicks off with the Prelims at 12:30PM on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 3:30 PM on ESPN+. Cyril Gane takes on Serghei Spivac in a fight to determine the #2 contender in the Heavyweight Division. With the card being in Gane’s home country of France he’ll look to put on a highlight reel performance in front of his hometown fans. The co-main event features former 115lb champion Rose Namajunas taking on up and coming 125lb contender Manot Fiorot.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Gane vs Spivac
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Ciryl Gane vs Serghei Spivac | 8700/7500 | - | Stackability: Low | -192/ 160 | -125/+200 |
| The Main Event this week likely determines who gets Sergei Pavlovich in a fight for the number one contender so expect these guys to come out looking to make a statement. Gane has some of the best footwork and striking in the heavyweight division, but he lacks the ability to keep fighting once opponents get in the clinch with him. Spivac is going to look to wrestle early, and end this fight quickly. Gane has shown multiple times that he can go 25 minutes in a fight, while Spivac doesn't seem to have much cardio in the tank. If Spivac wins this fight it's going to be with a ton of wrestling and ground control, if Gane wins he probably lands a lot of volume and finishes Spivac once he tires out in round 3/4/5. I'm going to be playing both of these fighters across my lineups due to the high ceiling they both possess, but as for an official pick I'm picking Gane to win by KO in R3. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Farid Basharat | 9200 | Kleydson Rodrigues | Somewhat-Safe | -395 | +225 |
| Basharat is well rounded and can mix in his striking, and takedowns in order to neutralize Rodrigues. This is Rodrigues first time up at 135lbs and he takes on his most talented opponent yet. Basharat is one of the few high-priced fighters this week who has actual UFC experience so I'm banking on him to get it done here. | |||||
| Morgan Charriere | 9100 | Manolo Zecchini | Somewhat-Safe | -345 | -105 |
| Charriere mostly leans on his striking, but he can mix in the wrestling as needed. He's extremely durable, having only been submitted one time, and never having been knocked out. He can become stagnant sometimes as he likes to look to counterstrike, so don't expect him to go out like a berserker and cause chaos. He's more talented than Zecchini and I think he either lands the counter at some point and KO's Zecchini or at very least wins most of the exchanges and wins the decision. | |||||
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 9400 | Zarah Fairn | Somewhat-Safe | -380 | +120 |
| Neither of these fighters are high level, but Cavalcanti is the rightful favorite. Fairn was up in the 145lb division before this fight, and she struggled to make to make the 140lb catchweight so I'm not sure what form she'll be in. Cavalcanti throws absolute heat when she's at her best, and while she isn't a submission fighter, she is comfortable taking the fight to the ground when she knows she'll be in a dominant position. If Cavalcanti gets any takedowns, Fairn has shown absolutely no ability to get back up. Cavalcanti by second round KO. | |||||
| Ange Loosa | 8800 | Rhys McKee | Moderate | -166 | +200 |
| This fight should be absolute fireworks as both of these fighters look to push action. Loosa showed his durability against Jack Della Maddalena, so I expect him to be able to withstand whatever McKee has to offer here. I think if anyone takes the fight to the ground it would be Loosa, but I'm expecting a 15-minute war where the winner lands 125+ strikes and scores a minimum of 80 DraftKings point even as a floor. I'll be heavily targeting both sides of this fight. | |||||
| Caolan Loughran | 9300 | Yanis Ghemmouri | Moderate | +154 | +300 |
| I am putting Loughran in here more as a warning than anything else. He had a last-minute replacement in who he is going to fight and now fights Taylor Lapilus but is $9300 and a +154 favorite. Loughran also has one of the wildest starts to a career I've ever seen, fighting an 0-31 and an 0-39 opponent who are both flagged for match fixing. He does have some decent skills, and he can pull off this upset but with his salary it is a huge risk in your lineup if he losses. I'm going to play him in about 6-8% of my lineups and expect him to come in around that ownership. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 8600 | Bogdan Guskov | Moderate | -192 | -120 |
| Guskov has power, but he only wins fights that he finishes extremely fast, if he has an adversity he normally fades. Volkan is older and past his prime, but I think he still can do enough to get it done here. I'm leaning on Volkan by KO in R2. | |||||
| Taylor Lapilus | 8600 | Caolan Loughran | Moderate | -170 | +350 |
| Lapilus returns to the UFC and faces a new opponent in Caolan Loughran after an opponent shuffle. I think this fight has less variance than some of these other mid-range fights and expect Lapilus to win a decision which could limit his upside. Lapilus can mix in both wrestling and striking at a fairly high level, but he doesn't throw enough volume for me to prioritize him over Gane or Volkan. | |||||
| Benoit Saint Denis | 8500 | Thiago Moises | Somewhat-Risky | -166 | +140 |
| This is a massive step up in competition for Saint Denis, and while I think the hometown favorite has a massive striking advantage in this matchup, he'll need to be extremely careful taking this fight to the ground. While Saint Denis has good BJJ, I think Moises is better, but if Saint Denis is the one initiating and ends up on top in a scramble, he can probably take advantage of it. I think he'll look to make this a war on the feet and swarm Moises early and expect him to find the early KO. I'd rank him higher, but Moises could slow this fight down enough to limit the scoring. | |||||
| William Gomis | 8400 | Yanis Ghemmouri | Somewhat-Risky | -205 | +330 |
| Gomis is the better fighter here and he has the best odds in the mid-range, but he throws absolutely no volume. He should look to get this fight to the ground, but even if he does, he hasn't shown any ability to rack up DK points. If you play him, you are banking that his +330 inside the distance hits early and with the other in this range I would go somewhere else. | |||||
| Nora Cornolle | 7900 | Joselyne Edwards | Somewhat-Risky | -102 | +225 |
| Cornolle may lose this fight, but she has been all action in her run up to the UFC. All of her wins have come by finish, so she has the ceiling you need to win a GPP. Edwards has never been KO'd so it'll be a tough task for Cornolle to get it done, but even if she wins a decision, she may do enough to hit the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Bogdan Guskov | 7600 | Volkan Oezdemir | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +200 |
| He is first round or bust in this matchup against Volkan, but I think he is taking on too much in this matchup. I'll have him in lineups as an underdog with a chance to break the slate, but he is giving up cardio, wrestling, and technical striking in this matchup so unless he can land one power shot that drops Volkan, it'll be tough for him to win. | |||||
| Thiago Moises | 7700 | Benoit Saint Denis | Risky | +140 | +350 |
| Moises has been to the ground with Islam Makhachev for extended periods of time and survived, so I rate his grappling pretty high. He doesn't offer much resistance on the feet, and I think Saint Denis is going to take advantage of that but if it hits the ground, he is live to find the finish. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Rhys McKee | 7400 | Ange Loosa | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +350 |
| McKee throws a ton of volume, and at his price he probably hits the optimal lineup even in a decision. McKee had a tough run in the UFC when he first signed, being a sacrificial lamb for Khamzat Chimaev and then a war with the always underrated Alex Morono. This fight should be more on his level and if Loosa keeps it standing I'm expecting a tightly contested fight. McKee has shown little takedown resistance so if Loosa tries to take advantage of that McKee could get thrashed if he hasn't fixed that hole in his game. | |||||
| Rose Namajunas | 7300 | Manon Fiorot | Somewhat-Risky | +164 | +500 |
| Rose has fought at the highest level in MMA, but she faces a new task, moving up to the 125 lb. division. Fiorot is one of the more physically imposing fighters in this division, and she mixes in technical striking extremely well. I don't even know what to expect from Rose after that dud against Esparza, but if she goes back to the form that beat Weili Zhang, she could do enough to win this fight. | |||||
| Yanis Ghemmouri | 6900 | William Gomis | Risky | +170 | +450 |
| Ghemmouri is only +170 at $6900 so he has some serious line value after the matchup flipped this week. He now takes on William Gomis in a fight that I expect to hit the judges’ scorecards, and at his price even a split decision from the judges would pay off his price. | |||||
| Manolo Zecchini | 7100 | Morgan Charriere | Risky | +275 | +650 |
| Zecchini takes on a fighter who has never been KO'd, and most of his fights end early so it seems like he either tires out and gets pieced up late or he ends the fight early. He has no problem entering the pocket to trade strikes and while it is normally a dangerous practice, as a +275 underdog and taking on a fighter in their home country I would rather my underdogs go for the kill than try to leave the fight in the hands of the judges. | |||||
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 7000 | Farid Basharat | Risky | +310 | +500 |
| Rodrigues has talent, but he is moving up a weight class and moving up in competition at the same time. Rodrigues habitually missed weight previously so I don't expect him to look out of place in this division, but he can no longer rely on being the stronger man in the cage. He is pretty much KO or bust in this matchup as I think Basharat can control the fight on the ground if he finds himself in trouble. | |||||
| Zarah Fairn | 6800 | Jacqueline Cavalcanti | Risky | +300 | +800 |
| Fairn was one of the few fighters in the 145lb division, and she can't make 135lbs, so this fight takes place at a catchweight of 140lbs. Fairn has no ground game and has been dominated by anyone who takes her down. She'll need to hope for a sloppy decision on the feet if she wants any chance of winning this fight. I'm fading her in my lineups. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Spivac, Namajunas, Guskov, Ghemmouri, Cornolle
Picks and Stats
Ciryl Gane | vs | Serghei Spivac |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 16-3-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 7 |
3 | Subs | 7 |
-192 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
Manon Fiorot | vs | Rose Namajunas |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 2 |
0 | Subs | 5 |
-198 | Vegas Odds | +164 |
Benoit Saint Denis | vs | Thiago Moises |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 11-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 3 |
9 | Subs | 8 |
-166 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
Volkan Oezdemir | vs | Bogdan Guskov |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 18-7-0 | Record | Record: 14-2-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 12 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
-192 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
William Gomis | vs | Yanis Ghemmouri |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
0 | ||
Morgan Charriere | vs | Manolo Zecchini |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 18-9-1 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 8 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-345 | Vegas Odds | +275 |
Taylor Lapilus | vs | Caolan Loughran |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 18-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 2 |
6 | Subs | 5 |
-170 | Vegas Odds | +154 |
Ange Loosa | vs | Rhys McKee |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 10 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-166 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
Nora Cornolle | vs | Joselyne Edwards |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-102 | Vegas Odds | -118 |
Farid Basharat | vs | Kleydson Rodrigues |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 10-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 4 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
-395 | Vegas Odds | +310 |
Zarah Fairn | vs | Jacqueline Cavalcanti |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 6-5-0 | Record | Record: 5-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
+300 | Vegas Odds | -380 |
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