MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Dawson vs Green Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs Green kicks off from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada with the Prelims at 4:00PM on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM on ESPN+. Dawson is finally coming into his own and is going to look to pressure the always eventful Bobby Green. Green is always looking to trade shots in the pocket while talking a ton of trash like we’ve come to expect from him. This is the fight that could put Grant Dawson and his 21-1-1 into the spotlight and move him up the ranks. The co-main event this week gives us one of the UFC’s favorite prospects in Joe Pyfer taking on a powerful knockout artist in Abdul Razak Alhassan.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for Noche UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs Green
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Grant Dawson vs Bobby Green | 9400/6800 | - | Stackability: Low | -410/+350 | -150/475. |
| An action-packed matchup headlines our card this week from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Dawson is the superior wrestler and I'm looking for him to implement his game plan early and often to take Bobby Green away from his perceived advantage in the striking game. Dawson has had issues with his cardio in the past, but after switching camps (he was with James Krause before the camp was banned from the UFC for gambling) he looks to hopefully have his cardio issues resolved. Green may be the better striker here but Dawson likely isn't going to give him much room to work with. If this fight took place 3 years ago this fight would be close to even money, but Green's durability has been called into question lately and even at his best he always fought in tightly contested contests. I'm going heavy on Dawson this week, and I'll likely be fading Bobby Green as I think after 45 professional fights, it's finally catching up to him. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Joe Pyfer | 9300 | Abdul Razak Alhassan | Somewhat-Safe | -410 | -250 |
| Pyfer is a favorite of the UFC with Dana White even helping him out with housing after his contender series fight, and anyone with the Dana White Privilege gets put into a position to excel. Pyfer is well rounded having KO'd Gerald Meerschaert, and then facing him in a grappling match shortly after and winning both. Alhassan has a ton of power, but he gassed fairly quickly so I'm expecting Pyfer to try to wear on him early in this fight and take over the later it goes. Pyfer has been entering a couple grappling contests in between his fights but he hasn't been able to get a submission win in the UFC yet, I think that changes Saturday night. | |||||
| Drew Dober | 9500 | Ricky Glenn | Somewhat-Safe | -425 | -200 |
| Dober has been cast iron in the past and has serious striking volume and power when he's at his best. Frevola KO'd him last time out which was the first time he was KO'd in his UFC career dating all the way back to 2013. The bigger question mark in this fight is his opponent, Rick Glenn. This will be Glenn's 3rd fight since 2019 and in his only fight since 2021 he was KO'd in the first minute. I'm banking on Dober being KO'd by Frevola not turning into a trend, and I think Glenn is shot at this point in his career. Dober wins this fight by KO. | |||||
| Mateus Mendonca | 9000 | Nate Maness | Somewhat-Safe | -230 | +105 |
| Mendonca may be getting over bet here because he looked good in a loss last time out which is something I've tried to stay away from more this year, but Maness is a one trick pony and I think Mendonca has enough to win this fight. Maness has no ability to get the fight back standing if he gets taken down, so Mateus has a clear path to victory if he wants to use it. There is a clear cap in confidence for me between Dawson, Pyfer, Dober and the fighters that start at this point in the list. | |||||
| Kanako Murata | 8900 | Vanessa Demopoulos | Moderate | -325 | 350. |
| Murata is two years removed from a bad injury to her shoulder but if she's made any improvements, she should be the better wrestler. On the feet Murata hasn't seemed willing to trade strikes so I think she's going to just look to wrestle early and often. Demopoulos has legitimate submission skills off of her back so while I normally would love to back someone, I think could score 3+ takedowns and 10 minutes of control time in a win, I am worried that she falls into a submission. | |||||
| Joaquin Buckley | 8700 | Alex Morono | Moderate | -170 | -110 |
| Buckley has the power to end this fight early, and Morono has been rocked pretty badly in his last few fights. Buckley doesn't throw much volume and he's more than comfortable waiting for opponents to come to him so if he doesn't land a first round KO it may be tough for him to outscore some other fighters in this price range. If the fight gets to the judges’ scorecards it would be my guess that Morono has done enough to win the fight as I expect him to throw more volume. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ion Cutelaba | 8300 | Philipe Lins | Moderate | -135 | -115 |
| This fight is a must play on either side of it. Cutelaba always comes out extremely fast and looks to make quick work of his opponents, if he doesn't finish this fight in the first round he likely gasses out. Lins hasn't shown the ability to get into a firefight as most of his fights normally have him landing around 50 strikes so I'm not sure that even if Cutelaba gasses out that Lins will be able to capitalize. I expect Cutelaba to be the highest owned fighter on the slate outside of the main event. Cutelaba is also only 29 years old and while his record in the UFC isn't impressive, he's fought top fighters like Glover Teixeira, Jared Cannonier, Magomed Ankalaev, and Johnny Walker while Lins has been fighting a much lower level of competition. I'm going to have Ion in about 70% of my lineups as I want to take a stand on this fight. | |||||
| Philipe Lins | 7900 | Ion Cutelaba | Moderate | 114 | 200. |
| I don't want to play Lins at all this week, but I have to put him in here. I've been fading Lins for his low volume and minimal finishing ability in the past but in this matchup, he's going to be forced to fight. You would have to go back 9 fights in Cutelaba's career to find one where the winner didn't score 90 pts on DK (Texeira scored 83 with a second-round submission) so at $7900 winning this fight likely means hitting the optimal lineup. Cutelaba has a lot to deal with, especially in Round 1 but he gives his opponents plenty of opportunity to capitalize on his over aggressiveness. Lins will likely need to catch him as Ion shoots for a takedown with a guillotine, but we've seen it happen before. | |||||
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 8600 | Diana Belbita | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | 650. |
| KK has looked great since making her return to the cage, and she is one of the smarter fighters on the roster. I expect her to try to get this fight to the ground where she should be able to have success over Belbita. If this fight stays standing, I wouldn't want to be holding a KK ticket as Belbita throws and lands a ton of volume in striking exchanges. This is one of those fights where depending on who controls where the fight takes place, I expect one of these ladies to look like they should have been a -350 favorite. | |||||
| Montana De La Rosa | 8200 | JJ Aldrich | Somewhat-Risky | -148 | |
| I'm not sure how this line was originally so close. Montana is the better wrestler, and she never quits in a fight even when she's facing adversity. Montana has struggled of late, but it's when she is taking on Tatiana Suarez and Maycee Barber who both could be challenging for a title in 2024. Aldrich is going to need to make up a lot on the feet as I expect Montana to be able secure takedowns fairly easily. Montana is one of my more confident plays in the midrange and I'll have her in about 30% of my lineups. | |||||
| Alexander Hernandez | 7800 | Bill Algeo | Somewhat-Risky | -118 | 240. |
| Hernandez is now the favorite in this fight so he's going to be extremely highly owned at $7800. Hernandez faces a similar matchup to his fight against Billy Quarantillo, so I expect him to have the strength advantage early on. Hernandez at his best has a KO win over Beneil Dariush, but at his worst he gasses out and gives up fights late that he should win. I expect him to be able to control this fight enough early and conserve some gas if needed for him to be able to win this fight. | |||||
| Johnny Munoz | 8000 | Aori Aoriqileng | Somewhat-Risky | -112 | 180. |
| Munoz is another tough fighter to peg on this card. At his best, he gets takedowns here and controls the majority of the fight and Aoriqileng has really struggled with takedowns in some of his previous fights. I'm not comfortable picking a winner in this fight, but I think at its price tag you need to consider either side for your lineups as Munoz could land 3+ takedowns and 9+ minutes of control time even in a decision win, or he could get KO'd quickly. | |||||
| Aori Aoriqileng | 8200 | Johnny Munoz | Risky | -108 | +225 |
| Aori is strong, has decent power, and should be the more physical fighter in this matchup. In the majority of his decisions, he'll land 60-80 strikes (not including the Molina fight because Molina forces everyone into extreme volume) and not utilize much wrestling, so for him to win and pay off his salary he'll likely need to win the fight by KO. I'll likely have 20-30% of both fighters in this fight which I think should match around what the field plays. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Diana Belbita | 7600 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Somewhat-Risky | 130 | 500. |
| Belbita has the volume to hit the optimal lineup in a win, even if she doesn't get the finish in this matchup. If the fight stays standing and Belbita wins I expect her to land 100+ strikes. | |||||
| Alex Morono | 7500 | Joaquin Buckley | Somewhat-Risky | 142 | 400. |
| Morono is giving up the power in this matchup, but he has always been willing to enter the pocket to trade shots. Morono's best path to victory is to tire out Buckley which could also lead to him taking some big shots early on, if he survives, he should be able to push a pace and maybe steal the last two rounds. | |||||
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 7300 | Kanako Murata | Risky | 260 | 550. |
| Demopoulos is willing to trade shots standing and she may actually have the advantage if they do stand and trade, but Murata is going to try to get this down early so this fight is going to be determined by Demopoulos' submission game. I think she can do enough to win this fight and even threaten a finish by submission at some point on the ground. I don't think many people are going to play her so I'll end up with around 15% of her in my lineups and I think that may even be more than the field. | |||||
| Ricky Glenn | 6700 | Drew Dober | Risky | 330 | 650. |
| Glenn is the better wrestler here if he was at his best, but I don't know what version of him is going to come to fight on Saturday night. If the guy who survived rounds 1 and 2 vs Grant Dawson and then scored a 10-8 round 3 comes to fight, he is going to be live here. If he's shot to bits which could be the case after his last KO loss, this fight could be over the first time Dober swarms him. I'll have him in about 10% of my lineups but again I think that is about what the field will have. | |||||
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | 6900 | Joe Pyfer | Risky | 320 | 400. |
| Alhassan has power and that is basically the only way he wins the fight. He is +320 to win and +400 to win inside the distance so he basically has a punchers chance to win this. The good thing about Alhassan is that in a win he is going to score well, the bad thing is if he loses this fight, I don't even expect him to score double digit fantasy points. I think he is going to be extremely low owned at around 10% so he makes for a great contrarian play if you are looking to get both Dober and Dawson into your lineup. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Morono, Hernandez, Belbita, Demopolis
Picks and Stats
Grant Dawson | vs | Bobby Green |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 20-1-1 | Record | Record: 30-14-1 (1 NC) |
4 | Knockouts | 10 |
13 | Subs | 9 |
-410 | Vegas Odds | +360 |
Joe Pyfer | vs | Abdul Razak Alhassan |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 12 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
-410 | Vegas Odds | +350 |
Alex Morono | vs | Joaquin Buckley |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 23-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-6-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 12 |
7 | Subs | 0 |
142 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
Drew Dober | vs | Ricky Glenn |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 26-12-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 22-7-2 |
13 | Knockouts | 13 |
6 | Subs | 3 |
-425 | Vegas Odds | 330 |
Alexander Hernandez | vs | Bill Algeo |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 14-6-0 | Record | Record: 17-7-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 7 |
105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
0 | ||
Philipe Lins | vs | Ion Cutelaba |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 17-9-1 (1 NC) |
9 | Knockouts | 13 |
4 | Subs | 2 |
114 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz | vs | Diana Belbita |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 15-7-0 | Record | Record: 15-7-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 12 |
3 | Subs | 0 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | 130 |
Nate Maness | vs | Mateus Mendonca |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 3 |
3 | Subs | 4 |
190 | Vegas Odds | -230 |
Vanessa Demopoulos | vs | Kanako Murata |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 9-5-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 2 |
4 | Subs | 4 |
260 | Vegas Odds | -325 |
Aoriqileng | vs | Johnny Munoz |
$8.200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 24-10-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 2 |
1 | Subs | 7 |
-108 | Vegas Odds | -112 |
Montana De La Rosa | vs | JJ Aldrich |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 12-8-1 | Record | Record: 12-6-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 3 |
8 | Subs | 0 |
-148 | Vegas Odds | 124 |