DFS PGA Playbook - Wells Fargo Championship
Published: May 04, 2016
What's with the weather lately? It doesn't matter where the tournament is taking place, there has been a weather problem basically since The Masters. I'm not saying things would have gone better last weekend, but it definitely did not help. Justin Rose killed basically everything I had going last weekend but you've got to have a short memory when it comes to DFS PGA. So, lets get to it ...
The PGA Tour travels down to Charlotte, North Carolina to the Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship. This standard par 72 has four par 5's and four par 3's that stretches out 7,575 yards. Players must score on the Par 5's to put themselves in position to contend over the weekend. Quail Hollow features six holes in which players have a better than average chances to make eagle. All of the Par 5's are reachable in two and two of the Par 4's are actually drivable for the bombers. We've also got three 200 plus yard Par 3s, one of which is 250 yards. It's no wonder that Rory McIlory has taken home this title twice being the best driver on tour. It's easy to see that total driving stands out as the most important stat of the week.
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Rory McIlory is the defending champion but he hasn't teed it up since The Masters. When you look at his track record on this course, it is incredibly hard to rationalize fading him. I would be completely shocked if he was not in the mix come Sunday.
I will say that it is not all about the bombers this weekend because scrambling will also play a big factor as well. You also want good ball strikers who are proficient from outside 200 yards. We want smart players with great course management because the guys who do their homework will know where on this track they miss and still be able to score. Putting is always important but this course is not known for the most challenging greens.
It is really nice to report that there are currently no weather concerns in Charlotte, North Carolina this weekend. Actually, it's suppose to get better each day from Thursday through Sunday.
Lastly, we welcome back our spiritual guide for this Daily Fantasy Golf season. Like us, the lovely Paige is working out the kinks in her swing before another big PGA DFS weekend. It's been an up and down rollarcoaster ride this season but I appreciate everyone who continues to roll with my playbook each week.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!
PGA DFS PLAYBOOK:
| PLAYER | ACES | DRAFTKINGS | BREAKDOWN |
| Rory McIlory | $6,100 | $12,800 | 2 Time Winner (Total of 5 Top 10s in 6 Trips). Shared 10th in Last Start at Masters. Fade at your OWN risk. |
| Rickie Fowler | $5,850 | $10,900 | 5/5 Cuts Made at QH (6th High Finish). 1 Top 10 in Last 4 Starts. He's not playing great but terrific course history. |
| Justin Rose | $5,800 | $10,000 | Will be low owned after he burned everyone last week. 5th at QH in 2014. 12th in Total Driving. 5 Top 20s since Feb. |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $5,650 | $9,300 | T7 in Last Start at the Masters. 5 Top 20s in 2016. 3 Trip to QH (T20 last year). 12th in GIR & 3rd in Birdies or Better. |
| J.B Holmes | $5,400 | $9,100 | 2014 Champ. 6 Top 15s in Last 8 Starts. He has a game that fits this course. How can you not love this price? |
| Byeong-Hun An | $5,100 | $8,600 | Primed for a victory after his Playoff Loss last week. 8 Months of Good Golf (10 Top 10s Worldwide) |
| Daniel Berger | $4,750 | $8,400 | 4 Top 20s in Last 5 Starts. T28th in his Debut at QH Last Year. Bomber sitting at 60th in Total Driving. |
| Charles Howell III | $5,250 | $8,100 | Best Season you could have without a win. 10/13 Cuts Made at QH (2 Top 10s). 11th Last Week. Always a nice play! |
| Justin Thomas | $4,600 | $8,000 | 7th Last Year at QH. 20th in Birdies or Better & Distance of All Drives. T12 in Par-5 Scoring. Cut Maker with Upside. |
| Jamie Lovemark | $4,750 | $7,900 | Last Week was 5th Top 10 this season (Playoff Loss). T16 in Par-5 Scoring, 7th in Scrambling, & 13th in Adjusted Scoring |
| Webb Simpson | $4,500 | $7,900 | A Member at QH and despite not playing well currently, OWNS this course. 2 Top 4s in Last 4. Putting will be the key. |
| Gary Woodland | $4,900 | $7,800 | 5/5 Cuts Made at QH (T4 in 2015 & T18 in 2014). T20 last week in New Orleans. He likes this course |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $5,050 | $7,800 | Debut at QH. Missed his last cut cause of fatigue but too good of a talent to be ignored. Fits perfectly on this course. |
| Ryan Moore | $4,600 | $7,500 | 5 Top 10s in 10 Starts this season. 5/5 Cuts Made at QH (T5 & T6). He should be a MUST play in CASH |
| Scott Brown | $4,000 | $7,500 | T13 at QH Last Year. 4 Top 10s this year (3 in his last 6 starts). Local Guy & Improved every year in this event. |
| Graham Delaet | $5,100 | $7,400 | Debut at QH. Game fits PERFECTLY here! 3 Top 15s in Last 4 Starts. 23rd in Ball Striking, T11 Par-4 Scoring, & 39th in SGTG. |
| Brendan Steele | $4,700 | $7,200 | 4/5 Cuts Made at QH (9th High Finish). He will be a CHALKY highly owned play this week for good reason. |
| Kyle Stanley | $4,600 | $6,800 | 3/4 Cuts Made at QH (6th High Finish). Made 8 of his last 10 Cuts. Should be a low owned GPP flier |
| John Senden | $4,500 | $6,600 | 11 Trips Here = 1 Top 10 & Another 4 Top 25s. 2 Top 25s in Last 3 Starts. Should be a low owned GPP flier |
| Geoff Ogilvy | $4,150 | $6,200 | 11/11 Cuts Made at QH (3 Top 10s & Another 5 Top 25s). The last Top 10 for him was HERE in 2015. |
| Roberto Castro | $4,300 | $5,900 | 3/3 Cuts Made at QH (T8 in 2014). 19th on the TOUR in Fairways Hit & GIR. 11/15 Cuts Made this Season. |
| Andrew Loupe | $4,450 | $5,700 | Ultimate Boom or Bust Play. GPP all the way, especially if you are trying to fit Rory & another 10K player |
DRAFT KINGS OPTIMALS:
| DRAFT KINGS CASH | PRICE |
| Rory McIlory | $12,800 |
| Charles Howell III | $8,100 |
| Gary Woodland | $7,800 |
| Ryan Moore | $7,500 |
| Brendan Steele | $7,200 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | $6,200 |
| DRAFT KINGS GPP | PRICE |
| Rickie Fowler | $10,900 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,300 |
| Byeong-Hun An | $8,600 |
| Webb Simpson | $7,900 |
| Graham DeLaet | $7,400 |
| Roberto Castro | $5,900 |
FANTASY ACES OPTIMALS:
| ACES CASH | PRICE |
| Rory McIlory | $6,100 |
| J.B. Holmes | $5,400 |
| Gary Woodland | $4,900 |
| Brendan Steele | $4,700 |
| Ryan Moore | $4,600 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | $4,150 |
| ACES GPP | PRICE |
| Rickie Fowler | $5,850 |
| Justin Rose | $5,800 |
| Graham DeLaet | $5,100 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $4,750 |
| Roberto Castro | $4,300 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | $4,150 |
ONE-AND-DONE OPTIMALS:
| ONE AND DONE PLAY | FINISH |
| Hyaundai: Patrick Reed | 2nd - $688,000 |
| Sony: Harris English | T56 - $12,818 |
| CareerBuilder: Bill Haas | T9 - $162,400 |
| Farmers: Nick Watney | Missed Cut |
| Phoenix: Ryan Moore | T11 - $149,500 |
| Pebble: J.B. Holmes | T11 - $143,500 |
| Northern Trust: K.J. Choi | T5 - $258,400 |
| Honda: Luke Donald | T61 - $13,115 |
| WGC-Cadillac: Dustin Johnson | T14 - $120,000 |
| Valspar: Kevin Na | T22 - $52,959.09 |
| Arnold Palmer: Francisco Molinari | T9 - $170,100 |
| Puerto Rico: Scott Brown | T5 - $109,500 |
| Shell Open: Charley Hoffman | T33 - $36,720.00 |
| The Masters: Phil Mickelson | Missed Cut |
| RBC Heritage: Matt Kuchar | T9 - $147,500 |
| Valero: Billy Horschel | T4 - $233,740 |
| Zurich: Justin Rose | Missed Cut |
| Wells Fargo: Gary Woodland | ??? |
Player News
Justin Thomas arrived at the Travelers Championship amidst a bit of a slump but left with 25 birdies to manage a T9 finish, his first top 10 since March.
Thomas is known for his stellar rate of big finishes over the course of his career but that changed recently with six straight finishes landing outside of the top 10. A cold putter has been the culprit for much of the downturn but he managed to fight through the flat-stick woes this week. Thomas lost 1.9 strokes putting at TPC River Highlands but ranked 3rd in strokes gained tee-to-green. It was a promising result to rebuild some confidence but he still has some work to do in the putting department. Despite the nice finish this week, Thomas is just 66th in the FedExCup race.
Brian Harman tossed together a 6-under 64 on Sunday at the Travelers Championship, posting a piece of second place on the final leaderboard (-20).
Harman entered the week with just one top 25 in his last 14 stroke-play events. It's been a slump for the straight shooter but TPC River Highlands was the perfect cure. The Georgia Bulldog gained 4.4 strokes on approach, 3.5 strokes around-the-green, and 4.9 strokes putting. All three ranked 13th or better for the week. This was far from his first taste of success at the course, going in the books as his sixth career top 10 at TPC River Highlands.
Chez Reavie started the day just one shot off the pace but stumbled with a 1-over 71 to drop back to a share of fourth place on the final leaderboard.
Reavie and overnight leader Keegan Bradley were in a tier of their own to begin the day. Reavie dropped a rung with seven pars and two bogeys before the turn. His driver remained steady (12-of-14 fairways) but lost strokes in each of the other three categories of strokes gained today. It was a day to forget but a week to remember for Reavie who still managed a T4 finish, vaulting him from 114th to 95th in the FedExCup race.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler steadied a 5-under 65 on Sunday at the Travelers Championship, ending the week on 19-under 261, good for a slice of fourth place.
The Texan piled up 21 birdies and a pair of eagles this week at TPC River Highlands. He ended the week ranked second in strokes gained tee-to-green (+11.08). He's now gained at least 10.6 strokes in that department in six straight events. Scheffler carded three sub-66 rounds this week but a two-birdie 70 on Friday is what held him back from truly contending. The World No. 1 now has six straight top-5 finishes and you have to go back to October to find the last time he finished worse than 12th. It's safe to say he's been the most consistent golfer on the planet over the last nine months.
Rory McIlroy raced out of the gate on Sunday at the Travelers Championship before slowing his pace to record a 6-under 64, ending his week in a share of seventh place (18-under 262).
McIlroy circled birdies on five of the first seven holes today. He couldn't maintain that pace but still bettered the field average by more than three shots today. McIlroy tossed together four sub-69 rounds this week at TPC River Highlands but didn't even sniff contention over the weekend. "I don't particularly like when a tournament is like this. Unfortunately technology has passed this course by, right? It sort of has made it obsolete, especially as soft as it has been with a little bit of rain that we had." The Northern Irishman now has five straight top-10 finishes and has his game trending back toward the winner's circle just in time for the season's final major and the FedExCup Playoffs.
Patrick Cantlay gave the leader a small scare down the stretch was swallowed two late bogeys to finish on 19-under this week at the Travelers Championship, four shots off the winning tally of Keegan Bradley.
Cantlay was slow out of the gate with eight pars and a birdie before the turn. He applied some pressure with four birdies on the next six holes, all while Keegan Bradley was starting to leak with three straight bogeys. That shrunk the lead to just three shots be Cantlay stumbled home with two bogeys and a par. "I thought I struck the ball very solid all day. Played smart. Not the finish I wanted obviously, but my game is in a good spot and a lot of big tournaments left this summer." The UCLA alum carded four sub-69 rounds this week and led the field in strokes gained tee-to-green. Cantlay now has six straight top 15s at TPC River Highlands. He collected two victories last season but still searching for his first win of the 2022-23 campaign.