I think it says a lot about the state of the Premier League that six of the bottom seven teams in the table play in Saturday’s EPL DFS slate, and yet only two of the games appear to be obvious blowouts. Burnley and Sheffield travel to third-place Aston Villa and fourth-place Manchester City respectively, and it would be a major upset if either road team takes even one point from those games. That being said, the other three games look like they could go either way.
Nottingham Forest has struggled this season but they have a -2 goal differential at home while Manchester United has a -1 goal differential on the road. Crystal Palace and Brentford are separated by just one point in the standings, and both teams are looking for their first in four weeks. Everton and Wolverhampton would also be separated by just one point if not for Everton’s 10-point deduction. Everton was playing great before consecutive losses to Tottenham and Manchester City, but they have an excellent chance to bounce back against their mid-table hosts.
EPL DFS Soccer Picks December 30
Goalkeepers
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Jose Sa
WOL
EVE
4800
5.39
11
6.26
Everton's opponents are always worth considering until further notice. Four teams have allowed more goals than Everton and just six teams have scored fewer.
Matt Turner
NFO
MUN
9
6.89
After Nottingham Forest had players get sent off in both of Nuno Espirito Santo's first two games as manager, they finally managed to keep all 11 on the pitch at Newcastle, securing a 3-1 win. We are getting a decent price to chase the new manager bump, which I don't hate, but this call is mostly about Manchester United. Only three teams have scored fewer goals per 90 than United, who is also allowing the eighth-most saves and the third-most clean sheets. I don't feel great about trusting Turner but this matchup is not as scary as the name Manchester United suggests.
Ederson
MCI
SHU
5900
5.76
14
6.88
You can pivot to Emiliano Martinez if you need to save some money but Sheffield has scored four fewer goals than Burnley and Manchester City has allowed four fewer goals than Aston Villa. Manchester City's xGD is +17.1 compared to +8.3 for Aston Villa, and I just trust them more to at least get the win, if not the clean sheet.
Dean Henderson
CRY
BRE
5000
5.18
12
6.67
Brentford has lost all four games since Bryan Mbeumo suffered an ankle injury, scoring just three goals. Crystal Palace, on the other hand, has all of its most important players healthy for the first time all season. Henderson struggled at Chelsea but was great in his first two starts of the season. He is probably less likely to get the win than Ederson or Emiliano Martinez but I think he has a better chance to rack up saves.
Forwards
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Anthony Elanga
NFO
MUN
17
15.52
Chris Wood is going to turn into a pumpkin sooner or later, and while Morgan Gibbs-White may be safer, Elanga has more than twice as many goal involvements. Elanga has six chances created in three games since Nuno took over as manager, and I'll gladly pay for that production.
Leon Bailey
AVL
BRN
8200
9.39
16
14.41
Bailey has been as good or better than Ollie Watkins on a per-minute basis; the problem is that Watkins plays 22 more minutes per start than Bailey. That being said, Bailey has played at least 73 minutes in four of his five starts in December. He is too cheap on FanDuel and is actually safer than Watkins on DraftKings thanks to his crosses.
Jack Grealish
MCI
SHU
8400
9.79
18
16.10
Grealish's goal streak ended Wednesday at Everton but he did create four chances to finish with 20+ FD fantasy points for the fourth consecutive game. So long as Manchester City's three best attackers are all out, Grealish looks like the best value in a fantastic matchup.
Midfielders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Bernardo Silva
MCI
SHU
####
12.92
21
21.67
I still think Julian Alvarez is safer, but Silva is cheaper on both sites; significantly so on FanDuel. Silva has had more crosses than Alvarez in each of the last two games and he is a strong offensive option for as long as Erling Haaland, Jeremy Doku and Kevin De Bruyne are all out.
Johann Gudmundsson
BRN
AVL
6100
7.46
12
12.94
Whoever starts on the right side of Burnley's midfield should be a nice value play, especially on FanDuel. Jacob Bruun Larsen is probably overpriced on DraftKings, but his fppg in four starts is impressive on both sites. Mike Tresor is probably the worst of the 17 attacking players who have gotten playing time for Vincent Kompany this season, but with six crosses and three chances created in 105 minutes in the past week, he is worth considering at this price. Gudmundsson leads Burnley with 3.03 chances created per 90 minutes, and he is fourth in crosses per 90 at 5.79. That is more than even enough for his price, so long as he starts.
Mathias Jensen
BRE
CRY
6700
9.82
16
18.27
Jensen played his first game in over six weeks Wednesday and finished with five crosses and a shot in 23 minutes. He is as safe as they come on DraftKings, but I think he will create enough chances to be playable on FanDuel as well. If Jensen comes off the bench again, Saman Ghoddos would be playable on both sites.
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
WOL
EVE
7000
7.05
13
12.11
Bellegarde's two goals have both come off the bench and while that is probably a coincidence, it does give me some pause. That being said, he has double-digit DK fantasy points in three of his last four starts. He is a solid play on that site, but he looks like an even better value on FanDuel.
Dwight McNeil
EVE
WOL
8800
13.24
18
20.45
McNeil has 53 crosses, 11 chances created, two goals and three assists in his last six games. With Pedro Neto's return possibly spelling the end of Pablo Sarabia's run, McNeil looks like the safest player on the DK slate.
Midfielders
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Bruno Fernandes
MUN
NFO
23
26.57
I'm still not ready to trust Michael Olise or Ollie Watkins, so I will pay all the way up for Bruno Fernandes if I'm able. Fernandes is the only thing that is working in the United attack, and he is overdue for a goal involvement.
Defenders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Matty Cash
AVL
BRN
4100
7.33
13
15.62
Alex Moreno is probably a better player but Cash has 11 crosses and two chances created in his last two starts. Cash is also $1,400 cheaper on DraftKings. Only Sheffield has allowed more goals than Burnley this season, and Cash should have plenty of opportunities to jump into the attack.
Auston Trusty
SHU
MCI
3100
2.19
9
12.26
Trusty struggled against Luton midweek, but he came into that game averaging 6.0 clearances over his last six games. Trusty is averaging more FD fantasy points than Jack Robinson or George Baldock but he is cheaper than each.
Vitinho
BRN
AVL
3500
4.28
9
8.62
Vitinho had three crosses against Liverpool Tuesday despite Burnley getting dominated for most of the game. Vitinho wants to get forward, often to the detriment of his defense. This isn't a good matchup, but he is worth a shot on DraftKings at this price.
Vitalii Mykolenko
EVE
WOL
4700
8.62
15
21.20
I'm not sure I'll pay up for him on FanDuel, but he is my favorite top-tier defender on DraftKings. He is averaging more DK fppg than any other starting player on the slate, but he isn't particularly expensive.
