2022 Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight: Is Tommy Edman the Best New Shortstop in Fantasy?
Every week, we break down a different MLB shortstop to examine — good or bad. Maybe it's an MLB top prospect, a “flavor of the month” on the fantasy baseball waiver wire, or someone who could be “sell-high” trade bait. Sometimes, it's a superstar or burgeoning player who is turning in the season we were all hoping for.
In this week’s edition of the Fantasy Alarm Player Spotlight Series on shortstops, we will turn our attention to Tommy Edman. With the arrival of St. Louis Cardinals’ uber-prospect Nolan Gorman, Tommy Edman has primarily made the shift to shortstop. With an elite breakout season fully underway for his fantasy baseball managers, does number-one overall pick Trea Turner have competition as the top player at the position?
Tommy Edman Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight
By the end of the 2021 fantasy baseball season, we thought Tommy Edman had just finished his breakout season. He slashed .262/.308/.387, hit 11 home runs, stole 30 bases, and scored 91 runs. But it turns out 2021 was just an appetizer for the unbelievable year Edman is having this season.
Granted, a Twitter handle named “STL_Stats_Facts” likely has some sort of agenda and I understand that most fantasy leagues don’t have WAR as a category. But with a .285/.360/.431 slash, seven homers, 15 stolen bases, and 52 runs already, just what is Edman’s current pace?
If he does play in 157 games, he would finish with 17 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and 130 runs. The last shortstop to finish with at least those stats in one season? Jimmy Rollins in his MVP season of 2007. The last shortstop to produce those numbers and also hit at least .300? Paul Molitor in 1982.
Now eligible as a shortstop, Edman is among the top-ten in the position in every relevant category.
Stat | 2022 Edman | Rank Among SS |
BA | 0.285 | 6th |
Runs | 52 | 1st |
Steals | 15 | 2nd |
HR | 7 | 9th |
RBI | 26 | 10th |
BB% | 9.40% | 4th |
K% | 16.3% | 9th |
OBP | 0.360 | 4th |
SLG | 0.431 | 7th |
Truthfully, Trea Turner is Edman’s only competition for shortstop supremacy 40% of the way through the 2022 fantasy baseball season.
Can Tommy Edman Continue This Pace?
What we must do with a breakout of this magnitude is consider how Edman is performing through his first 63 games and look at where regression may come – whether positive or negative.
First, his BABIP is .325 this season. That is the second-highest of his career and is about 35 points higher than league average. But Edman’s career number is .311 and he has an 87th -percentile speed score, so his BABIP is always going to trend on the high side. No major concerns there, but the batting average could take a slight hit.
He is hitting groundballs 50% of the time this year, with is also slightly higher than his 46% career average. Groundballs, as we all know, are most likely to turn into outs. But Edman has been using those hits and his speed to his advantage. His HardHit% of 37.6% is the highest of his career.
That HardHit% has led to a promising start in his Statcast numbers. At 6.9% of his balls in play, Edman has far and away the best barrel rate of his career. That is matched by an average exit velocity that is more than one mile per hour over any other season in his career.
Add all that up and we see Edman is exactly where he should be. His batting average (.285) is in line with his expected batting average (.285). His slugging percentage (.431) might even give us a little more pop if it aligns with his expected slugging percentage (.444). And his wOBA (.350) is exactly where it should be according to his expected wOBA (.350).
This is a player who is taking a step up into superstardom this year, especially for fantasy managers. It doesn’t hurt, of course, that Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are absolutely killing the ball this year. But it all starts at the top with Tommy Edman who is undoubtedly in the mix of top fantasy shortstops moving forward.
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