In 2019, Seattle’s WNBA title defense was marred by the absence of league MVP Breanna Stewart. They limped to the playoffs and won their first-round game but were never really a threat to repeat as champions. In 2020, Breanna Stewart returned, Seattle tied for the league’s best record and swept the Las Vegas Aces to win the WNBA title.
In 2020, Washington’s WNBA title defense was marred by the absence of league MVP Elena Delle Donne. They limped to the playoffs and lost their first first-round game on a Shey Peddy buzzer-beater. In 2021, Elena Delle Donne returns and Washington is one of the top three favorites to win the WNBA title, according to oddsmakers. Will history repeat itself?
2020 Results
18-4 Record, second in the league. Swept Las Vegas in the WNBA finals to win their second championship in three years.
Offseason Moves
Traded Natasha Howard to the New York Liberty for the 2021 No. 1 pick, Phoenix’s 2022 first-round pick and New York’s 2022 second-round pick.
Traded Sami Whitcomb to New York for Stephanie Talbot.
Traded Phoenix’s 2022 first-round pick to Minnesota for Mikiah Herbert Harrigan.
Traded the 2021 No. 1 pick to Dallas for Katie Lou Samuelson and a 2022 second-round pick.
Traded Aaliyah Wilson to Indiana for Kennedy Burke.
Free-agent Alysha Clark signed with Washington.
Draft Results
Seattle selected Aaliyah Wilson with the 11th overall pick and traded her to Indiana for Kennedy Burke. They selected Kiana Williams in the second round with the 18th overall pick.
Offseason Breakdown
That is an awful lot of trades, and I’m not sure Seattle got the better side of any of them. Trading Natasha Howard makes sense, as Howard was not nearly as effective in 2020 with Breanna Stewart back. However, trading the picks in the Howard deal for two failed first-round picks is dubious at best. I can’t believe they couldn’t get more for the first overall pick than Katie Lou Samuelson. It is probably too soon to give up on Samuelson or Herbert Harrigan, especially after Samuelson made All-Euroleague First Team this season, but based on asset management alone, Seattle’s offseason was underwhelming.
Projected Starting 5:
PG Sue Bird
SG Jewell Loyd
SF Breanna Stewart
PF Candice Dupree
C Ezi Magbegor
This starting lineup has a lot of question marks for a defending champion and betting favorite to win the title. Natasha Howard and Alysha Clark started every game last season, and Seattle has a couple of options to replace them. Mercede Russell started the two games Breanna Stewart missed last season, and she is an option to start at either frontcourt spot. Russell started 30 of 34 games in 2019, so she could have a leg up on Dupree or Magbegor once Russell returns from playing overseas.
Magbegor averaged 5.3 personal fouls per 36 minutes last season and if fouls are an issue this season, that could be another reason to bring her off the bench. On the other hand, Candice Dupree has come off the bench just once since 2006. She will be 37 years old in August, so her starting days could be numbered, but she still played 30.2 minutes per game last season. I think she probably has to start next to either Magbegor or Russell. With Russell beginning the season late, I’ll guess that Magbegor plays well enough early on to keep the starting job.
2021 Outlook
I only liked one of their offseason moves, and it may not matter. Seattle was far and away the best team in the league last season, and while Natasha Howard is an MVP candidate on most teams, I think Candice Dupree can fill the role Howard vacated on this team. Ezi Magbegor looked great as a rookie and should be ready to take another step. The biggest question mark is what, if anything, Seattle will get from Katie Lou Samuelson and Mikiah Herbert Harrigan. Samuelson should get a ton of open looks on this team, but we said the same thing when she was a rookie with the Sky and it didn’t work out.
If Seattle is to repeat, they probably need Jordin Canada to take her game to another level. Her field goal percentage has improved every year she’s been in the league, and if she can shoot better than 42.4 percent this season, Seattle could be one of the best offensive teams in the league. I am also interested to see if this is the year Canada develops a three-point shot. She is a 76 percent career free throw shooter but she has shot 17.4 percent on threes. If she can be just below-average beyond the arc, that would open up some driving lanes for her.
I would bet against Seattle finishing the season with the best record in the league, but they could still have the best team come playoff time. Seattle is seven-deep with above-average WNBA players, and that may be all it takes come playoff time. If they get a breakout from Herbert Harrigan or Samuelson, they could be as good as anyone come playoff time. That being said, Las Vegas, Chicago and Minnesota are all deeper, and all three could finish ahead of Seattle in the regular season.
Betting Outlook
The Storm are going to struggle to be as good as they were in 2020 while teams like the Aces, Sky, Lynx and Mystics have all gotten better. I don’t think enough is being made of the departures of Natasha Howard and Alysha Clark. Even if Candice Dupree and Katie Lou Samuelson can match what Howard and Clark provided offensively, I think Seattle has taken a big hit on the defensive end. I’m staying away from a Championship bet and I might even go under their 64.5 win percentage.
I can’t argue with Breanna Stewart having the best MVP odds, but I don’t think there is any value there. Sue Bird almost certainly won’t win her first MVP in her 18th WNBA season, and Jewell Loyd and Jordin Canada won’t win it while they aren’t even the best player on their own team.
Fantasy Outlook
Stewart has averaged between 40.3 and 42.2 fppg in all four WNBA seasons. She is the safest fantasy play in the entire league, and the only reason not to play her is that there are a lot of other forwards who are nearly as safe and often cost much less.
In her four seasons playing with Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd has averaged between 26.3 and 29.0 fppg. She is as safe as they come, and she may have a bit more upside in the games Sue Bird sits.
Canada saw her minutes and fantasy production dip with Breanna Stewart back in the fold, but now that Seattle has lost some of its wing depth, I wonder if Canada will play closer to 30 minutes per game. That could give her some upside early on, and she will be a very nice play if Sue Bird misses any time.
In her lone preseason game, Ezi Magbegor had 42.9 fantasy points in 19.3 minutes. That kind of upside is tantalizing, even if it was just half of one preseason game. Magbegor averaged 1.01 fantasy points per minute as a rookie, and while there is a chance that improves in her second season, and I think she could easily double her 13.3 mpg from 2020. She could lose some playing time when Mercedes Russell returns to the team, but I think Magbegor could be one of the best fantasy plays in the league early on.
The wild cards for this team, for fantasy as in real life, are Katie Lou Samuelson and Mikiah Herbert Harrigan. Of the two, I prefer Samuelson for fantasy thanks to her shooting. If she is knocking down shots and attacking closeouts, Samuelson and Breanna Stewart could be impossible to guard. I think Harrigan is mostly someone to keep an eye on.
Candice Dupree and Sue Bird should have relatively safe floors while playing limited minutes, but neither has a particularly high ceiling at this point in their careers.