Dallas has more or less done everything right in their rebuild, and they still might end up in the draft lottery again this year. They have a lot of young talent around some solid veterans, but in a league with so many good teams, they are probably two more years away from competing for a top-four seed. If one of their young players can emerge as a third start next to Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally, that would advance Dallas’s rebuild quite a bit.
2020 Results
8-14 Record, ninth in the league. Finished one game out of the last playoff spot.
Offseason Moves
- Traded Katie Lou Samuelson and their 2022 second-round pick to Seattle for the 2021 number one overall pick.
- Signed Kayla Thornton to a contract extension.
- Re-signed Allisha Gray.
- Waived Astou Ndour.
- Suspended Satou Sabally for part of the season.
Draft Results
The Wings drafted Charli Collier, Awak Kuier and Chelsea Dungee with the first, second and fifth picks of the 2021 WNBA draft. They join Dallas’s three top-seven picks from 2020 to give the Wings the best collection of young talent in the league. Collier and Kuier should be Dallas’s starting frontcourt of the future, and the future could begin as soon as Kuier returns from Finland, though they will likely compete for playing time with Kayla Thornton, Isabelle Harrison, Satou Sabally and Bella Alarie for playing time.
Chelsea Dungee faces an even more crowded backcourt situation and it is unclear if she will even be in the rotation this season. That being said, Dungee looked solid in Dallas’s first preseason game and she could earn more playing time as the season goes along.
Offseason Breakdown
I still don’t understand how Dallas was able to turn Katie Lou Samuelson and a second-round pick into the number one overall pick in the draft. Samuelson was a surprise fourth pick in the 2019 draft and since then has barely contributed on two different teams. She is supposed to be a knock-down shooter, but Samuelson is currently shooting 30.3 percent on threes in her career. Turning Samuelson into Collier, who immediately becomes Dallas’s best frontcourt player, is a huge win. Samuelson was an all-Euroleague First Team player this season, so a breakout could still come , but there has been no evidence of that thus far in the WNBA.
Projected Starting Five
PG Arike Ogunbowale
SG Allisha Gray
SF Satou Sabally
PF Kayla Thornton
C Charli Collier
When in doubt, play your five best players. That is basically what I have done with this lineup. Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally are the only players who I think are definitely starting whenever they are fully healthy. Allisha Gray and Kayla Thornton don’t have the upside of the younger players at their positions, but they are smart, veteran players who will be in the right place and make the right plays. I think two starting spots are theirs until someone takes the job from them. Giving the number of high draft picks Dallas has made the last two years, I think that could definitely happen at some point.
The problem with predicting Dallas’s starting lineup is that the team is so deep, and these starters are so versatile, that you could make a case for any of eight different players in the last starting spot. Dallas’s two best players are their top draft picks from the last two drafts, and I suspect Charli Collier will join them in a big three sooner than later. With Awak Kuier still stick in Finland with visa issues, Collier has an even better chance to separate herself from the other bigs. She was the first overall pick for a reason and a big part of Dallas’s future.
If Dallas wants to go big but bring Collier and Kuier along slowly, Isabelle Harrison is a solid option. She started 11 of her 13 games l ast season, averaging 6.4 points and 4.6 rebounds in 19.8 minutes per game. The Wings had an 11.8 net rating in 147 minutes Harrison and Thornton played together, so keeping them together makes sense.
If Dallas goes smaller with Thornton at the five and Sabally at the four, Bella Alarie could slide in at the three. She only started three games last season but averaged 14 minutes per game. Alarie should be a floor spacer but she shot just 7.7 percent on threes last season. My guess is she will have to demonstrate her shot has improved before she can earn regular starts.
Dallas’s other option is to start three guards, with Allisha Gray guarding small forwards. She doesn’t really have the size for that, but there are only a few teams who have threes who can punish her defensively. Gray and Arike Ogbunbowale aren’t really point guards, so allowing them to spend more time off the ball and less time playmaking for others makes some sense. The other reason to start a point guard is that Dallas has three on the roster who all need playing time. I have long loved Moriah Jefferson, but it is an open question if she can ever stay healthy and flash the quickness she showed early in her career. Tyasha Harris started slowly as a rookie but improved some down the stretch. Dallas had a -3.6 net rating when Ogunbowale played without Tyasha Harris and a -0.2 net rating she played with Harris. Marina Mabrey started 12 of 18 games last season and her 41.8 percent three-point shooting was a welcome addition for a team that didn’t have anyone else shoot above 35.2 percent on threes. Unlike Harris and Jefferson, Mabrey isn’t really a point guard, but she can still play there if needed.
2021 Outlook
Dallas finished one game out of the playoffs and added three first-round draft picks for the second consecutive season. I think this is probably the deepest team in the league, and while their bench had a -0.8 net rating last season, I think they will rival Las Vegas, Seattle and Chicago for the best bench in the league. The problem for this team is their starters had the fourth-worst net rating in the league last season, and I’m not sure how much the starting lineup has improved. If Charli Collier is an above-average player out of the gate, Dallas is a break or two away from being a playoff team. If Collier and Awak Kuier cannot distinguish themselves from Kayla Thornton and Isabelle Harrison, Dallas will be in danger of finishing 11th.
For all of the first and second-year players Dallas is hoping to develop this season, I think the most interesting player to keep an eye on will be Arike Ogunbowale. She led the league in points in 2020 and was second in 2019 but was 83rd and 97th respectively in effective field goal percentage. Her detractors would say she is taking shots away from more efficient teammates, and thus is simply accumulating good stats on a bad team.
Ogunbowale’s defenders would say it is nearly possible to be efficient when all of the responsibility for creating shots for yourself and teammates falls on your shoulders. If she had a pick-and-roll partner, or even someone else they could throw the ball to late in the shot clock to get a shot, Ogunbowale would become more efficient. Getting consistent point guard play would likely help quite a bit as well. That’s the camp I tend to fall in.
Ogunbowale led the league in clutch points last season and was second in 2019. She was just as efficient in those situations last season as she was overall. That is consistent with her reputation in college, when she hit some of the biggest shots in NCAA tournament history. I think this is the season Arike Ogunbowale starts to take her game to the next level.
Another thing to keep an eye on for this team is how much time Satou Sabally spends at the three and the four. Dallas doesn’t have very many threes, so I think that is where she will spend most of her time. She was very good as a rookie, and it looks like she is the second start Dallas is looking for.
Betting Outlook
Let’s start with the MVP odds on this team, because I think they are more interesting. Arike Ogunbowale is +1300, and I just don’t think there is any value there. She would have to lead the league in scoring and drag Dallas to a top-four record, and even that might not be enough to get it done. I expect Ogunbowale’s usage to decrease at least a little bit, and even if she makes up for it with better efficiency, I don’t think she is winning MVP.
Satou Sabally is probably better value at +6000, but I don’t know if she will have enough time to accumulate stats considering she is not with the team to start the season. Candace Parker is the only player in WNBA history to win MVP as a rookie, so I think we can pass on Charli Collier and Awak Kuier when we place our bets.
I think we can also avoid betting the Wings to win the WNBA Championship, even at +6000. They face an uphill battle just to make the playoffs, and it is hard to imagine them winning a semifinal series against anyone. If you’re going to place a long shot bet, I could see betting on the youth and upside of this young team, but I won’t do it.
Fantasy Outlook
As we stated above, I think Arike Ogunbowale will have decreased usage once Satou Sabally and Awak Kuier join the team, but that could result in greater efficiency. Either way, Ogunbowale is arguably the safest guard in the league. She won’t get a ton of rebounds or assists, but she’ll get enough to keep her floor high even on the nights she struggles from the field. Satou Sabally should be safe as well, having scored at least 32 fantasy points in five of her last six games to end her rookie season. Her role on this team is secure and while she may not take quite as many shots as she did as a rookie, I think it will be close enough.
At this point, we know what we are getting from Allisha Gray, Isabelle Harrison and Kayla Thornton. Gray and Thornton are safe for fantasy, though Thornton will occasionally go weeks at a time without shooting. Harrison is inconsistent and the big games are never as frequent as we would like.
Of the young players, I think Bella Alarie is the most intriguing. Her combination of size and shooting could be super valuable, but she showed very little as a rookie to make us think she will hit her ceiling anytime soon.
Tyasha Harris may be the most important of the second-year players, considering the need to move Arike Ogunbowale to shooting guard and Moriah Jefferson’s inability to stay healthy. I’m finally giving up on Jefferson, though I’m sure the first time she scores 15 points in a game I will be right back in, like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football.
I probably buried the lede waiting so long to discuss Charli Collier. I think she is pretty clearly the best player in this draft, and I think she has a very good chance to contribute right away. I won’t player her for fantasy if she comes off the bench, but she has found her way into a surprising number of the DFS lineups for opening night so far.