Underdog Golf Fantasy Picks: 2025 Valspar Championship
Welcome back, FA Nation! The Valspar Championship is upon us, and I’m pumped to bring you my top Underdog Fantasy PGA Pick'em selections for the week. We’re headed to the challenging Innisbrook Resort, where precision off the tee and strong approach play reign supreme.
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Let’s dive into the picks and stack some wins at the Valspar!
Underdog Golf Picks: Valspar Championship Picks & Projections
Corey Conners Underdog PGA Pick: Better Than 20.5 Finish
First up, I’m riding with Corey Conners to finish better than 20.5 overall in the tournament. Conners can be a bit streaky, but he’s trending in the right direction lately, showing the kind of consistency that could push him into that next tier of golfers. In 2025 so far, he’s notched a T3 finish, a T6 at the Arnold Palmer a few weeks back, and kicked off the season with a T5 at the Century. The guy’s playing solid golf.
His game fits Innisbrook like a glove. He ranks 19th in driving accuracy—a must on this tight course—and excels on approach shots from 175+ yards, where over 50% of the shots will come from this week. The putter’s been his Achilles’ heel, but even there, he’s above field average, sitting at 69th in strokes gained putting. Add in his strong par-3 scoring, and I love the value here with a slight multiplier bump over the standard 1x. Conners should cruise past this number.
Tommy Fleetwood Underdog PGA Pick: Better Than 20.5 Finish
Next, I’ve got Tommy Fleetwood also finishing better than 20.5. You’ll notice a theme here—targeting guys who are ball-striking machines. Fleetwood’s been lights-out since missing the cut at the Open Championship last year. Over his last 14 starts—spanning the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, and even the Olympics—he hasn’t finished worse than 22nd. That’s elite consistency.
He thrives on tough tracks like Innisbrook. Like many great ball strikers, his putter can be a wild card, but it’s been reliable lately—three straight events gaining strokes on the greens. Putting isn’t everything here, though, and his approach game is among the best in the world, consistently gaining over a stroke per round (only dipping below that mark twice recently). He’s dialed in from distance and keeps it in the fairway off the tee—two massive keys this week. I’m confident he’ll land inside the top 20.
Jordan Spieth Underdog PGA Pick: Better Than 20.5 Finish
Finally, I’m taking Jordan Spieth to finish better than 20.5. Look, Spieth is Spieth—you’re signing up for a rollercoaster. But I think we’re on the verge of an upswing. His approach play and putting let him down at the Players (where he finished 59th), and those have been shaky areas lately. That said, he doesn’t need both firing to contend here—just one will do, especially in a weaker field. He’s already posted a T4 and T9 this year, so the upside’s there.
What really seals this pick is his history at Valspar. Yes, he missed the cut last year, but over the six prior seasons, he racked up a win (2015), a T3, a T7, a T18, and a T20. This course suits him—he knows how to navigate it. Even in his 2024 Valspar MC, he was 16% more accurate off the tee than the field. If he brings his recent around-the-green touch and keeps the ball in play (a Spieth specialty), he doesn’t need a perfect week to crack the top 20. In this field, that’s more than doable.
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Justin Thomas arrived at the Travelers Championship amidst a bit of a slump but left with 25 birdies to manage a T9 finish, his first top 10 since March.
Thomas is known for his stellar rate of big finishes over the course of his career but that changed recently with six straight finishes landing outside of the top 10. A cold putter has been the culprit for much of the downturn but he managed to fight through the flat-stick woes this week. Thomas lost 1.9 strokes putting at TPC River Highlands but ranked 3rd in strokes gained tee-to-green. It was a promising result to rebuild some confidence but he still has some work to do in the putting department. Despite the nice finish this week, Thomas is just 66th in the FedExCup race.
Brian Harman tossed together a 6-under 64 on Sunday at the Travelers Championship, posting a piece of second place on the final leaderboard (-20).
Harman entered the week with just one top 25 in his last 14 stroke-play events. It's been a slump for the straight shooter but TPC River Highlands was the perfect cure. The Georgia Bulldog gained 4.4 strokes on approach, 3.5 strokes around-the-green, and 4.9 strokes putting. All three ranked 13th or better for the week. This was far from his first taste of success at the course, going in the books as his sixth career top 10 at TPC River Highlands.
Chez Reavie started the day just one shot off the pace but stumbled with a 1-over 71 to drop back to a share of fourth place on the final leaderboard.
Reavie and overnight leader Keegan Bradley were in a tier of their own to begin the day. Reavie dropped a rung with seven pars and two bogeys before the turn. His driver remained steady (12-of-14 fairways) but lost strokes in each of the other three categories of strokes gained today. It was a day to forget but a week to remember for Reavie who still managed a T4 finish, vaulting him from 114th to 95th in the FedExCup race.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler steadied a 5-under 65 on Sunday at the Travelers Championship, ending the week on 19-under 261, good for a slice of fourth place.
The Texan piled up 21 birdies and a pair of eagles this week at TPC River Highlands. He ended the week ranked second in strokes gained tee-to-green (+11.08). He's now gained at least 10.6 strokes in that department in six straight events. Scheffler carded three sub-66 rounds this week but a two-birdie 70 on Friday is what held him back from truly contending. The World No. 1 now has six straight top-5 finishes and you have to go back to October to find the last time he finished worse than 12th. It's safe to say he's been the most consistent golfer on the planet over the last nine months.
Rory McIlroy raced out of the gate on Sunday at the Travelers Championship before slowing his pace to record a 6-under 64, ending his week in a share of seventh place (18-under 262).
McIlroy circled birdies on five of the first seven holes today. He couldn't maintain that pace but still bettered the field average by more than three shots today. McIlroy tossed together four sub-69 rounds this week at TPC River Highlands but didn't even sniff contention over the weekend. "I don't particularly like when a tournament is like this. Unfortunately technology has passed this course by, right? It sort of has made it obsolete, especially as soft as it has been with a little bit of rain that we had." The Northern Irishman now has five straight top-10 finishes and has his game trending back toward the winner's circle just in time for the season's final major and the FedExCup Playoffs.
Patrick Cantlay gave the leader a small scare down the stretch was swallowed two late bogeys to finish on 19-under this week at the Travelers Championship, four shots off the winning tally of Keegan Bradley.
Cantlay was slow out of the gate with eight pars and a birdie before the turn. He applied some pressure with four birdies on the next six holes, all while Keegan Bradley was starting to leak with three straight bogeys. That shrunk the lead to just three shots be Cantlay stumbled home with two bogeys and a par. "I thought I struck the ball very solid all day. Played smart. Not the finish I wanted obviously, but my game is in a good spot and a lot of big tournaments left this summer." The UCLA alum carded four sub-69 rounds this week and led the field in strokes gained tee-to-green. Cantlay now has six straight top 15s at TPC River Highlands. He collected two victories last season but still searching for his first win of the 2022-23 campaign.