Welcome back, FA Nation! The Valspar Championship is upon us, and I’m pumped to bring you my top Underdog Fantasy PGA Pick'em selections for the week. We’re headed to the challenging Innisbrook Resort, where precision off the tee and strong approach play reign supreme. 

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Let’s dive into the picks and stack some wins at the Valspar!

 

 

 

Underdog Golf Picks: Valspar Championship Picks & Projections

Corey Conners Underdog PGA Pick: Better Than 20.5 Finish

First up, I’m riding with Corey Conners to finish better than 20.5 overall in the tournament. Conners can be a bit streaky, but he’s trending in the right direction lately, showing the kind of consistency that could push him into that next tier of golfers. In 2025 so far, he’s notched a T3 finish, a T6 at the Arnold Palmer a few weeks back, and kicked off the season with a T5 at the Century. The guy’s playing solid golf.

His game fits Innisbrook like a glove. He ranks 19th in driving accuracy—a must on this tight course—and excels on approach shots from 175+ yards, where over 50% of the shots will come from this week. The putter’s been his Achilles’ heel, but even there, he’s above field average, sitting at 69th in strokes gained putting. Add in his strong par-3 scoring, and I love the value here with a slight multiplier bump over the standard 1x. Conners should cruise past this number.

 

 

 

Tommy Fleetwood Underdog PGA Pick: Better Than 20.5 Finish

Next, I’ve got Tommy Fleetwood also finishing better than 20.5. You’ll notice a theme here—targeting guys who are ball-striking machines. Fleetwood’s been lights-out since missing the cut at the Open Championship last year. Over his last 14 starts—spanning the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, and even the Olympics—he hasn’t finished worse than 22nd. That’s elite consistency.

He thrives on tough tracks like Innisbrook. Like many great ball strikers, his putter can be a wild card, but it’s been reliable lately—three straight events gaining strokes on the greens. Putting isn’t everything here, though, and his approach game is among the best in the world, consistently gaining over a stroke per round (only dipping below that mark twice recently). He’s dialed in from distance and keeps it in the fairway off the tee—two massive keys this week. I’m confident he’ll land inside the top 20.

 

 

 

Jordan Spieth Underdog PGA Pick: Better Than 20.5 Finish

Finally, I’m taking Jordan Spieth to finish better than 20.5. Look, Spieth is Spieth—you’re signing up for a rollercoaster. But I think we’re on the verge of an upswing. His approach play and putting let him down at the Players (where he finished 59th), and those have been shaky areas lately. That said, he doesn’t need both firing to contend here—just one will do, especially in a weaker field. He’s already posted a T4 and T9 this year, so the upside’s there.

What really seals this pick is his history at Valspar. Yes, he missed the cut last year, but over the six prior seasons, he racked up a win (2015), a T3, a T7, a T18, and a T20. This course suits him—he knows how to navigate it. Even in his 2024 Valspar MC, he was 16% more accurate off the tee than the field. If he brings his recent around-the-green touch and keeps the ball in play (a Spieth specialty), he doesn’t need a perfect week to crack the top 20. In this field, that’s more than doable.

 

 

 

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