Valspar Championship 2025 DFS Picks This Week: Predictions, Values & Projections
Published: Mar 19, 2025
Another week in Florida! This week, we head over to the Cooperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort for the 2025 Valspar Championship. As the final leg of the Florida Swing, this course is as demanding as any of the other courses on swing, and is a fitting end to this section of events on tour. At this event, players will compete for their share of $8,700,000 and 500 FedExCup Points.
Valspar Championship 2025: Daily Fantasy Golf Picks & Projections
Since this events debut in 2000 as the Tampa Bay Classic, this event was originally an alternate event in late summer or autumn. This event typically features lower scoring with Sam Burns the only winner to break 14 under since 2011. Despite it's short time on tour, there have been 4 multi-time winners. Can Sam Burns bounce back and make it his third win? Can Peter Malnati defend his championship? Let's dive in!
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort: Course Breakdown This Week
The Copperhead Course does not have the same recognition that other courses on the Florida Swing have, such as Bay Hill or TPC Sawgrass, but it is just as difficult of a course to play and just as fun to watch. Playing at 7,350 yards as a Par 71, Innisbrook is known as one of the tightest course on tour. It’s so tight in-fact, that even taking less than driver off the tee makes it hard to hold the fairways. With trees lining most of the course, and the necessity to play this course as a positional course, players must be able to work the ball in both directions, making this a shot makers dream.
The holes on this course are different than the rest. The Par 3s are some of the hardest on tour, and Par 5 scoring is paramount. The 5 Par 3s at Innisbrook play 195 to 235 yards, and the Par 5s all play over 560 yards. These yardage buckets will be clear as scoring on these holes is necessary for success here. Coupling this with what we previously discussed with the positional factors of this course, it plays very similarly to many Pete Dye courses, such as TPC Sawgrass that we just saw this past weekend. Additionally, there is a lot of overlap between Innisbrook and Colonial Country Club, as players like Sam Burns and Jordan Spieth have won at both courses.
Innisbrook also shows an above average level of predictiveness, but less than we’ve seen at other courses as of late. Sam Burns is a great example of this. As a winner in 2021 and 2022, he followed this up with a 6th place finish in 2023, then missed the cut here last season. While it certainly can show some consistency, it’s not a perfect outlook. The top 5 in course history minimum 8 rounds played include Sam Burns, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, and Jordan Spieth.
When looking over our key statistics for this week, they paint a very clear picture. As mentioned, Par 5 scoring will be paramount this week. Players who score on the Par 5s at this event tend to place well or win. Par 3 scoring as well paints a clear picture, as the scoring doesn’t necessarily impact winning as much as avoiding blow ups on these holes. The approach game will be key here as well given the length of this course, specifically from the 175 yard range and beyond, as over 50 percent of approach shots will come from these distances. Scrambling, Around The Green, Short Game, and Bermuda Putting strokes gained will be key this week as well.
When breaking down the key stats, here are some of the top names in the field in each stat:
- Par 5 scoring: Neal Shipley, Niklas Norgaard, Sepp Straka, Kurt Kitayama, Steven Fisk, Joe Highsmith, Billy Horschel, Matti Schmid, Jacob Bridgeman
- Par 3 scoring: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Xander Schauffele, Nico Echavarria, Seamus Power, Beau Hossler, Ryo Hisatsune, Brian Campbell, Michael Thorbjornsen, Lucas Glover
- Approach from 175+: Adam Schenk, Tim Widing, Niklas Norgaard, Sepp Straka, Danny Walker, Gary Woodland, Jackson Suber, Ryan Fox, Rasmus Hojgaard
Valspar Championship 2025 Field: Golf DFS
While certainly not the strength of field we saw at TPC Sawgrass, we still see a strong field this week. 4 of the top 12 players in the world will be in attendance as well as 8 of the top 25. This field is larger than we’ve seen this year as well, coming in at 156 players. With such a deep field numbers wise, it should be no surprise that while we do have the top heavy players mentioned, 75 players in the field are either unranked or outside of the top 150 in the world.
With such a diverse field, predicting the correct high priced players will be at a premium this week. The high end of prices is much “softer” on DraftKings as only 4 players break the $10,000 price mark, in stark comparison to the 16 breaking the same barrier on FanDuel. Picking and choosing the right pieces for your platform will be another key this week.
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PGA Best Bets & Predictions: 2025 Valspar Championship (10-12 Overall, +4.70 Units)
- Will Zalatoris: Top 20 (+200)
- Tim Widing: Top Swedish Player (+240)
- Valspar Championship One and Done Picks:
- Sam Burns (high ranked)
- Niklas Norgaard (low ranked)
GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: Top Tier
Sepp Straka ($11,600 FanDuel/$10,000 DraftKings)
From a course fit perspective, I’m not sure there is a better option than Straka at this high end price range. Straka is on arguably the best stretch of golf in his career, and that success lines up perfectly here for the Valspar. Currently 11th in Driving Accuracy, top 30 from 175-225 on approach, top 5 in Par 5 scoring and top 10 in Bogey Avoidance and Birdie or Better Percentage. Honestly, he’s been near elite around the green as well. Straka is in a great spot this week as a more “affordable” high end option.
Tommy Fleetwood ($11,800 FanDuel/$10,300 DraftKings)
Accurate off the tee, deadly on approach, 14 straight finishes T22nd or better since The Open. What’s not to love? Sure, his putting and wedge game haven’t been amazing, but Fleetwood is as close to a shoe-in every week as nearly anyone. One of the safest “floors” among the high end, Fleetwood will be a great “safe” high end option (at least as safe as you can be in DFS).
Sam Burns ($11,400 FanDuel/$9,800 DraftKings)
Burns may not be playing his best golf, but even when he isn’t playing well, he usually plays well here. In 6 starts here, Burns has 2 wins, a 6th place finish, a T12th, and a T30th to go along with his lone missed cut. While his recent form has not been great, his putter has still been one of the best on tour, and driver remains a weapon for him as well. What he’s struggled with most is the approach game this year. Where I still have faith though is he’s been one of the best at playing out of the rough, which should give him some help this week. Burns is not safe, but he arguably has the highest upside in the field.
GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: MID-TIER
Will Zalatoris ($10,800 FanDuel/$9,300 DraftKings)
Zalatoris is a strange player in the sense that, the harder course you put him on, the better he plays. He’s played solid golf this year, finishing between T30 and T12th in 6 of his 7 starts between tours in 2025, and he’s played his best at traditionally harder courses. Additionally, he’s been one of the best approach players on tour this year, both from the fairway and out of the rough. His putter has started to take a turn as well, as this past weekend was his best performance with the flat stick since the Rocket Mortgage in June. He has lacked a bit in the scoring department here, but I’m willing to bet this course is one he will love and score well on.
Luke Clanton ($10,100 FanDuel/$8,500 DraftKings)
This should come as no surprise. If Clanton is in the field, I’m playing him. He continues to impress and show that he belongs here on tour. Having earned his card earlier in the season (though still playing on Amatuer status until his college season is over), he statistically lines up well on this course, and this is one is likely familiar to him. He plays well almost every round, with a current True Strokes Gained over 3 in 2024 and 2025, and has shown no signs that he isn’t ready for the big bright lights of the PGA tour.
Sahith Theegala ($9,700 FanDuel/$7,800 DraftKings)
Sahith has not played his best golf this year, but I’m still willing to take this bet at this price. Theegala has struggled, but at THE PLAYERS, his game started to come together. Theegala has played here before, finishing T7th in 2022 here. His putter has remained a strength even while the rest of the game faltered, but I believe the tight design here will force Sahith to just play what works. If he does that, he can win.
GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: VALUE TIER
Niklas Norgaard ($9,200 FanDuel/$7,400 DraftKings)
Norgaard is so close to putting it all together. He’s a bomber, though in accurate, but his approach game is elite and putting game is good enough. He’s close, but his game lines up very similarly to other winners here. If he can keep it in the fairway, he can shock the world here.
Matt Wallace ($8,600 FanDuel/$7,200 DraftKings)
This is almost entirely a historical based play. Wallace’s game has not been strong this year, with his best finish being a T26th at the Puerto Rico Open, an alternate event. But Wallace somehow struggles frequently and then finds a way to perform here. His game could be worse, but he’s still an accurate driver who can get hot with the putter. That type of game can succeed here.
Takumi Kanaya ($7,700 FanDuel/$6,700 DraftKings)
He can drive the ball accurately and is a top 20 scorer on Par 3s. What’s there not to like about that? Kanaya is still searching for parts of his game. The putter comes and goes, the iron play isn’t perfect but shows signs. Kanaya is my true wild card in this pool, as anything could happen, but it’s worth the shot.
PGA DFS Picks This Week (Cheat Sheet)
Player Pool
| $ Tier | G |
|---|---|
| High |  Sepp Straka  $10,000 |
| Corey Conners $9,600 | |
| Shane Lowry $9,400 | |
| Tommy Fleetwood $10,300 | |
| Sam Burns $9,800 | |
| Medium | Will Zalatoris $9,300 |
| Jordan Spieth $9,100 | |
| Alex Smalley $9,000 | |
| Lucas Glover $8,800 | |
| Luke Clanton $8,500 | |
| Low | Sahith Theegala $7,800 |
| Tim Widing $6,200 | |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller $7,400 | |
| Matt Wallace $7,200 | |
| Takumi Kanaya $6,700 |