PGA DFS Playbook The American Express: Top DraftKings & FanDuel PGA DFS Picks

The top-ranked golfer in the world has made the Playbook for a course he should absolutely torch this week. He’s Cash eligible and Tournament eligible as we all know. Will he be popular? Probably. He won the Hero World Challenge at the end of November and was T-5 at the Sentry just two weeks ago. Between those two events he’s made 50 birdies and three eagles. That’s pretty much a birdie or better every three holes. Here’s an insane stat of Scheffler’s tee-to-green metrics from Kyle Porter of CBS Sports: in his last 17 events, Scheffler has ranked top three in tee-to-green in 14 of those events and he was fifth in another. He’s great with the driver. He’s phenomenal with the irons and the approach play. The putter is frustrating at times and it’s amazing he can be such an underwhelming putter. But he’s the number one golfer in the world and a threat to drop 130+ fantasy points on DraftKings at an event like this. And for what it’s worth, you can’t really go wrong with Xander Schauffele who is priced just below Scheffler. It’s a large field and everybody will play at least 54 holes so of course he’s an option as well.

It’ll be tough to fit both Scheffler and Cantlay in the same lineup, but it certainly can be done if you’re comfortable living in the low $7K range. In his last four trips to PGA West in La Quinta he finished T-26 (2023), T-9 (2022), second (2021), and T-9 (2020). Since 2020, of golfers with at least eight rounds at this course, Cantlay ranks first in strokes gained at +2.63 while Sungjae Im is second at +2.26 and if this turns into a putting contest, that certainly plays to Cantlay’s strengths, especially over Scheffler’s. He’s a SoCal native with ties to Long Beach and UCLA so he certainly has familiarity and will have a lot of backers this week.

The last time we saw Sungjae was two weeks ago at the Sentry where he collected a whopping 34 birdies (PGA record for a tournament) on his way to a top five finish. Truthfully, if he didn’t have such an underwhelming third round he probably could have won the tournament. Sungjae certainly comes with plenty of frustration because he’s a very all-or-nothing type play. In five trips to La Quinta, Sungjae has finished between 10^th and 18^th which may signal a good floor for this guy. However, I can never bring myself to play or recommend Sungjae as a Cash game option, but if there was a week to do it, it might be for the AMEX. There’s always variance with this guy so I will likely stick with him just for Tournaments. As mentioned in the Cantlay section, Sungjae has gained 2.26 strokes at the American Express since 2020. He’s top 12 in approach and putting, plus he ranked fifth in Par 5 scoring last year. If he brings the birdie upside he had two weeks ago then he’s shaping up to be a home run. 

I’m not proud of leading off the Playbook with four of the five most expensive players on DraftKings. However, this tournament has a 54-hole cut. So I want to get exposure to as many players that can go out and get a ton of birdies and score well. Even if you have one or two golfers miss the cut, you can still cash in this format so I’m largely taking a stars & scrubs approach in Tournaments so I want to start my builds with at least two of the first six golfers in the Playbook. And for full disclosure, I tend to get Tom Kim wrong quite often. But I can’t hype him up with my own ghost stories, so let’s pull out some positives. Kim is great with approach even though he had a poor showing at The Sentry. But last year he was top 10 in strokes gained: approach, top 15 in par five scoring average, and 16^th in birdie or better rate. These Par 5’s are very hittable in two and Tom Kim has always been more of an accuracy player. The putter is, and always will be, what likely holds him back. But I have no doubt he’ll at least be able to put himself in position for birdie opportunities.

Poston has been on fire to start the 2024 campaign and we just hope he keeps the momentum going. I don’t think many people want to pay $9,100 for Poston. Either that or they’re going to try and jam in two of the other golfers we’ve already discussed and by default they have to skip right over this guy. He finished sixth last week at the Sony Open and he was T-5 at The Sentry the week prior. And mind you, his earlier rounds have been just so-so. He’s really made moves on the weekend, highlighted by a 61 in Round 4 last week. He’s played well on Pete Dye courses in the past and his confidence is probably high as he feels like he’s close to securing a win.

Cole had an outstanding Hawaii swing. The guy is simply swinging a hot stick. He gained +10.2 strokes while shooting -34 between the Sony Open and the Sentry. He finished top 15 in both events and even dating back to the Fall, he finished T-3 or better at the RSM Classic, the ZOZO Championship, and the Shriners Children’s Championship. Will he be a leverage play? I highly doubt it because the entire world has seen how well he’s striking the ball right now. It’s odd that he’s having this renaissance to his career at 35 years old. He’s only played La Quinta once in his career and it came last year where he finished T-36. The one concern I have is that even though the results have been solid the last two events, it’s worth being mindful that he flirted with the cut line and the top 15’s were the result of very strong rounds on the weekend. But he was top 10 last year in Total Birdies and Birdie Average in 2023 and through two weeks he’s once again Top 10 so he’s certainly flashed the approach and putter to kick off 2024.

Si Woo Kim has okay the last two events finishing T-42 at the Sony Open and T-25 at the Sentry, but obviously nothing to write home about. Course history certainly favors him and he’s definitely taken advantage of the easier courses. He won this event three years ago, then followed that up with a T-11 in 2022, and he was T-22 here last year. Overall, he’s shown he can contend on the Pete Dye courses. My concern is that ownership may be a bit juiced for this event and the putter was a little underwhelming to start the 2024 campaign.

With this course likely boiling down to whoever is hot with the putter this week, I’m willing to look at a guy who has touted one of the better putters of late. I avoided the Cameron Davis chalk the last two weeks, but I may lean into it here. His approach play at The Sentry was off and it led to him finishing T-52 at the no-cut event. But he ranked 20^th in putting and then last week at the Sony Open he ranked fourth in putting and the approach game seemed to fix itself. He’s played well on Pete Dye courses in the past so I’m finally willing to get some exposure to Davis this week and it only took until the third week of 2024. How brave of me…

This event has undergone a variety of name changes over the years, but Hadwin has played eight times and never mixed the cut. And boy do I hope I didn’t jinx him because he could be due. He was the runner-up here back in 2017, then finished T-3 in 2018, and finished tied as the runner-up again in 2019. Since this event was re-named as The American Express, he’s finished T-32 (2021), T-25 (2022), and T-18 (2023). Hadwin missed the cut last week at the Sony Open but was top 15 the week before at the Sentry, but mind you, that was a no-cut event. Now that he’s had a little more time to rest, I do like him to bounce back at an event he’s historically played very well at. He’s been getting some love on social media this week as a 75-1 outright bet. The driver and putting has been above average compared to the field, but the approach has been relatively underwhelming. He strangely has a reputation of playing better at these desert events as we’ve already discussed with the course history. He also had a very strong result at the Shriners where he finished second; another desert event in Vegas.

Some may look at course history for Andrew Putnam and prefer playing him instead, and Putnam’s still a very trendy play if you want to go that route. To each their own but I’ve already acknowledged some course history plays so let’s go with recent trends, shall we? Montgomery gets a $1,000 price increase from last week’s Sony Open where he was the course leader after the first round. In that first round he gained strokes off the tee after struggling with the driver and losing strokes in 24 of his previous 29 holes. Now he finished outside the top 10 ultimately but overall he still ranked second last week in SG:Approach and he was third in the same category during Sunday’s final round. He finished top five in his debut here last year and while putting can be very difficult to gauge and a high variant stat, Montgomery is one of the better putters on the tour.

This is strictly a GPP-only play. Berger hasn’t made an appearance since the 2022 U.S. Open so it’s been over 18 months. He’s returning from a back injury so there are many unknown factors to his game. Truthfully, I would fault nobody if they faded him, especially if you’re someone who only plays one lineup. But if doing multiple lineups, maybe 10% exposure is enough leverage because after Will Zalatoris’s disastrous return last week in Hawaii, we may see some leverage on Berger if the field is nervous to roster him. He hasn’t played this event since 2020 (but remember he hasn’t played in any tournament in a while) but he did previous finish T-12 (2019) and T-29 (2020) in his last two trips to this event.

Not my favorite play by any means for a couple reasons. First off, he finished T-50 here last season and prior to that he had three missed cuts from 2019-2021. Truthfully it might almost be better to bet him outright because you can get him at long odds for a win where he was routinely 40-1 or shorter at several events last year. Hossler also didn’t play at the Sentry or Sony Open. This is his 2024 debut. So why is he in the Playbook? He ended 2023 in really solid form. He was T-7 at the Shriners, T-2 at the ZOZO, and T-15 at the World Wide Technology Championship. He was especially good around the greens ranking top 25 in SG:Around The Green and 56^th in SG:Putting. He’s coming in cold so I’ll keep him in here as a Tournament-only option if he hasn’t missed a beat since wrapping up his 2023 campaign.

If you were in the PGA DFS Discord last week, you know I had him in my main slate lineup, my R2 Showdown lineup, and my R3 Showdown lineup. This kid could be something special, and possibly the next great golfer to come out of Japan. I was hoping we’d maybe get one week where he was in the $6K range but after making the cut and finishing T-30 at last week’s Sony Open, he’s actually $7,500 which may seem aggressive especially in a loaded field. He somehow went from being ranked 74^th to 75^th despite the good week and four straight rounds in the 60’s. I think he shapes up much better for PGA DFS Tournaments as a leverage play because he’s priced around more recognizable players such as Tom Hoge, EVR, Nick Taylor, and others. All those guys are firmly in play, but I tend to pivot in this range and find leverage. He’s probably my favorite young talent to breakout similar to Ludvig Aberg last season. At just 21 years old the kid has a very bright future and I’m going right back to the well with him this week after a solid performance in Hawaii.

With two of these courses being relatively easy and approachable this weekend, I’m hoping that Hadley’s 2023 stats carry over in a sense. Last year, Hadley ranked 19^th in par three scoring average, while also ranking top 40 in birdie of better rate and greens in regulations, while also ranking 42^nd in strokes gained: approach and he was top 50 in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards. Now he got off to a slow start a year ago and has missed the cut in his last three trips to the AMEX. But he had a really strong swing in the fall including a pair of T-7 finishes, so I’m hoping that stroke is easy to find for him in his 2024 debut.

So I initially had Seamus Power in this section, but he withdrew on Tuesday so I’m going to pivot to Tosti while throwing in a couple other value options as well. I may be a little bias towards this guy simply because he was in my R4 Showdown lineup on Sunday where he shot a 64 as a cheap dart throw at less than one percent ownership, so excuse me for riding the momentum a bit. Tosti comes over from the Korn Ferry Tour after logging 10 top 10’s in 2023 including a win. Now the slow pace of this Tournament could frustrate him. He’s a bit of a hot head and a trash talker to slow players on the course. He’s a very entertaining guy and one of my favorite value plays with some upside if he can keep his composure.

A wise man once (Jon Rahm) called The American Express a “piece of s*** putting contest” and that may not bode well for Duncan in this format. Good putter? Hardly. However, he had a really solid showing in the Fall despite the missed cut at the World Wide Technology Championship. In three other events in the autumnal swing he finished top 20 in all of them. He made the cut last week at the Sony Open but finished 65^th. Now I mention Jon Rahm’s thoughts on this tournament simply because Duncan isn’t a great putter, especially on this surface. However, his approach play has been solid of late and these courses are approachable, which is where Duncan’s game has thrived. Anybody can get hot with the putter any given week so I don’t hate rolling the dice on Duncan in some lineups.

Dahmen gained over four strokes on approach last week at the Sony Open but he just didn’t putt all that well. But he still made the cut and had a decent show in the Fall swing aside from the Fortinet. Dahmen typically comes through at these easier events and this Tournament features two of the easiest courses on the schedule each year. This seems like a player that is giving us a bit of a discount. Now he has missed the cut three times at this event, but the 54-hole format does help these cheaper guys return some value from a point-per-dollar perspective. And if you need an incredibly cheaper punt for the “sober golfer” narrative, Harrison Endycott ($6,200) has gotten some love this week following the wins by Chris Kirk and Grayson Murray in Hawaii. I personally won’t play him because I don’t anticipate we really have to go down that far, but if another longshot player scores a win after giving up the drink, Endycott could be the guy.