The Masters is over and now everyone is sad.  As exciting as the tournament was, there is always a lull in the golf world for at least a few weeks as we try to get jazzed up for the PGA Championship in May at Oak Hill Country Club.  Congratulations to Jon Rahm on his fantastic 30 hole performance on Sunday at Augusta.  You all know how much I love this guy and of course I don’t pick him on the Fantasy Alarm show on SiriusXM and he goes out and wins the whole damn thing.  Brooks Koepka stepped up his game at a major championship which he typically does but the fact that he hasn't played four rounds of golf on the LIV Tour may have contributed to his collapse on Sunday.  That’s just my theory but it did not seem to affect Phil Mickelson who proves once again that Augusta fits certain golfers better than others.  I could go on and on about the Masters but I’ll move onto this week’s event on Hilton Head Island.    

The RBC Heritage has been the event after the Masters for a long time on the PGA Tour schedule.  It is played at Harbour Town Golf Links on the tiny island of Hilton Head in South Carolina.  This course holds a special place in my heart because it was the first professional course I ever played with my Dad at the age of 15.  The tournament has not typically been a marquee event but the PGA Tour has made it one of their “designated events” this season which means we’ve got a terrific field and a huge purse up for grabs.  We usually would see a lot of the big names take a break the week after a major but not anymore except for Rory McIlory.  He announced that he’s skipping this event but we will see new Masters champ Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Cameron Young and defending champion Jordan Spieth.   

Harbour Town is not known for its length, sitting at 7,121 yards but challenges these pros with narrow fairways and small contoured greens.  This course plays to the smart golfer because of the strategic way you must attack the greens to give yourself birdie making opportunities.  An errant tee shot will force players to navigate through hundreds of live oaks and mossy pines which makes driving accuracy on top of the stats to target this week.  Driving distance is a bonus but definitely not vital to success.      

This course can hurt you in a bunch of different ways which means that scrambling should be another target statistic for building your lineups.  The course features smaller than average contoured greens, placement on the greens is key for scoring opportunities which puts proximity into our top statistics.  It probably does not need to be said at this point but I'll say it anyway, putting is always crucial especially here.  I always look at the players trends on the greens coming into this event.  The old phrase, "Drive for Show and Putt for Dough" could not be more true when it comes to this tournament.  

I was really hoping not to see more rain this weekend after what we saw in Augusta but I’m not going to get my wish.  It looks like we will see thunderstorms throughout the day on Friday.  They are also calling for more on Sunday as well.  We are likely to see more rounds getting shifted like we did at the Masters.

MY ONE AND DONE PLAY: JUSTIN THOMAS

Pos
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GScottie Scheffler1100012100

He has not finished below 12th in any of his last 10 starts on the PGA Tour with two victories.  While he sits as the number two player in the world, Scottie has played well enough to be number one.  He currently ranks 1st in Tee to Green, 1st in Off the Tee, 1st in Greens in Regulation, 2nd in Scoring Average, 6th in Birdie Average, 6th in Approach, and 7th in Scrambling.  Once again you have to pick between Scottie and Rahm, I’m gonna go with him for the discount. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GPatrick Cantlay1030011500

Since his win at the BMW Championship in mid-August, he has made the cut in nine of his next 10 starts with eight Top 10s.  He is coming off of his best performance at the Masters of his career.  He’s been incredibly close multiple times at Harbour Town but just hasn’t been able to finish the job.  Cantlay has three Top 3s in five trips to Hilton Head.  Patrick just seems like the obvious play this weekend.    

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GViktor Hovland980011100

The terrific run from Hovland continued as he pushed his cuts made streak to 15 after his 7th place finish at the Masters.  He has 10 Top 20 finishes over that run.  Viktor made the cut and finished Top 25 in his first trip to Harbour Town.  He ranks 4th in Total Driving, 5th in Scoring Average, 8th in Off the Tee, 10th in Birdie Average, 15th in Tee to Green, 18th in Driving Accuracy, 21st in Scrambling, 29th in Approach, and 35th in Putting Average.  Viktor has been locked in all season and I have no reason to believe that this won’t continue on Hilton Head Island.   

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GMax Homa910010600

Max has two wins on the 2022-2023 season with another four Top 10 finishes.  He made his first trip to Hilton Head back in 2020 and made the cut but not a great finish.  It’s pretty obvious that Homa is a fantastic player and what makes his special is that he’s great throughout his bag.  He ranks 5th in Approach, 5th in Birdie Average, 6th in Putting Average, 6th in Tee to Green, 9th in Putting, 10th in Scoring Average, 17th in Total Driving, 22nd in Scrambling, 36th in Around the Green, and 56th in Greens in Regulation.  While he didn’t have a great showing at Augusta, we should see a bounce back in South Carolina.  

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GJustin Thomas890011000

Wow did he suck in Georgia on Friday.  That 78 ended his weekend early and hopefully gave him some extra motivation this weekend in South Carolina.  Prior to that missed cut at the Masters, he did have two Top 10s and another two finishes of 21st or better over his five previous starts.  He’s never missed the cut in four trips to Harbour Town with two Top 12 finishes.  Thomas ranks 1st on the PGA Tour in Around the Greens, 11th in Tee to Green, and 21st in Birdie Average.  I believe he’ll bounce back this weekend in a big way.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GTom Kim85009900

It has been awhile since we’ve talked about this young man after an incredible run from August 2022 through January of 2023 which included two wins and another four Top 15 finishes.  He has made seven straight cuts coming into this event which includes a Top 20 at the Masters.  While this will be his first trip to the RBC Heritage, I have no doubt that his game will carry over.  Tom ranks 6th in Scrambling, 6th in Scoring Average, 10th in Greens in Regulation, 16th in Tee to Green, 18th in Total Driving, 19th in Approach, and 39th in Approach.  He makes for a great mid-tier option this weekend.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GShane Lowry830010200

The Irishman loves playing on Hilton Head Island.  He has two Top 3 finishes and another Top 10 in his last four trips to Harbour Town.  It doesn’t surprise me when you look at his game as a whole.  He ranks 4th in Total Driving, 7th in Driving Accuracy, 19th in Tee to Green, 24th in Approach, 26th in Off the Tee, and 61st in Proximity.  Lowry comes into this weekend after finishing Top 20 at the Masters and making his last six cuts.  He gives you stability in the mid-tier but I know he’ll be highly owned.    

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GTommy Fleetwood81009700

He still sits without a PGA Tour victory under his belt but he has made the cut in 11 of his last 12 starts on the PGA Tour.  Tommy made the cut at the Masters and has four Top 5 finishes over that 12 start stretch.  Tommy has made the cut in two of his three trips to Harbour Town including a Top 10 at last year’s edition.  The 32-year-old ranks 2nd in Around the Green, 12th in Tee to Green, 15th in Putting Average, and 25th in Approach.  The numbers don’t wow you this season but we know he can be so much better.  The game he brings to the table fits this course very well.   

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GCorey Conners780017.2%980015.5%

Corey really disappointed me and most everyone else with his missed cut at the Masters.  He had finished Top 10 at Augusta in three straight trips.  Despite that finish, he’s still made the cut in 14 of his last 17 starts with a victory and another 10 Top 30 finishes.  He has made the cut in his last three trips to Hilton Head with a Top 5 finish in 2021.  The stats are starting to come around to what we expect out of him like ranking 16th in Greens in Regulation, 19th in Off the Tee, 19th in Birdie Average, 24th in Tee to Green, and 26th in Approach.  Another guy I believe could bounce back in a huge way.    

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GRickie Fowler760021.9%970028.6%

He didn’t make the Masters field but that doesn’t take away from his terrific start to the 2022-2023 season.  He started with a sixth at the Fortinet, second at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and since then he’s scored six Top 20 finishes.  While Fowler has missed the cut in his last four trips to Harbour Town, he did finish Top 10 back in 2010.  He is playing much better golf now than he was in his last two trips to this event.  I think it is only a matter of time before he wins an event again.  Fowler got a week off to hang with the wife and baby, now he can get back to work on his comeback.  I’m definitely willing to pay for him once again. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GWebb Simpson74009100

If Webb cannot get it done this weekend at the RBC Heritage, I don’t know when he’ll ever get it back.  He has not missed a cut at this event since 2009 and has a win, a second, a fifth place, a ninth and another four Top 16 finishes.  The last time he teed it up was at the Valspar where he finished Top 10 for the first time in over a year and a half and parted ways with his long-time caddy.  I’m not even going to bore you with the numbers, but this has got to happen for Webb and it has to happen on this golf course.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GJ.T. Poston73008900

We know he’ll never wow anyone off the tee but that’s not necessary for success at this course.  It shows in his results at Harbour Town scoring three Top 10 finishes in four starts on Hilton Head Island.  Poston also has two Top 10 finishes in his last three starts on tour.  The two time PGA Tour winner is inside the Top 100 in Approach, Tee to Green, Off the Tee, Birdie Average, Scoring Average, Driving Accuracy, and ranks Top 15 in Greens in Regulation.  The price tag is perfect for a guy of his skill level.  

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GSam Stevens70001.5%85001.6%

A Korn Ferry Tour graduate has looked good thus far during his rookie season on tour.  He actually has back to back Top 3 finishes at the Corales Puntacana and the Valero.  Stevens earned his card by making the cut in 14 of his last 15 events with eight Top 20 finishes over that run.  He currently ranks 14th in Proximity, 25th in Greens in Regulation, 29th in Off the Tee, 34th in Driving Distance, 46th in Putting Average, 48th in Scoring Average, 50th in Total Driving, 58th in Tee to Green, and 66th in Putting.  He will make for a sneaky good tournament option who will likely be low owned this weekend.  

Game Type: GPP
GBen Martin71009.0%85004.6%

How can you not love what this guy is doing right now?  He has made the cut in six straight events with back to back Top 10 finishes at the Corales Puntacana and the Valero.  Ben finished 3rd in his debut at Harbour Town in 2014 and has made the cut here in four of his last six starts.  The reason I love him this weekend is his approach game ranking Top 20 on the PGA Tour.  He is also 20th in Greens in Regulation, 40th in Birdie Average, 48th in Scoring Average, 49th in Driving Accuracy, and 52nd in Tee to Green.  He continues to play as a great value option for salary relief.  

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GJ.J. Spaun690016.4%820013.5%

JJ has his breakthrough win last year at the Valero but he did have a bit of a hangover missing five cuts over the next three months.  I’m hoping he got things back on track after finishing 22nd in his title defense.  Spaun has only made the cut at this event in two of his five trips to Harbour Town but I like his game on this course ranking 3rd in Scrambling, 9th in Sand Saves, 23rd in Scoring Average, 24th in Greens in Regulation, 49th in Off the Tee, 53rd in Around the Green, 55th in Tee to Green, and 59th in Total Driving.  Those stats are definitely good enough to make some noise this weekend even against a really good field. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GScott Piercy66004.8%76002.9%

Scott has flashes of great play and it looks like we’re in the middle of one right now.  He’s made the cut in three of his last five starts with two Top 30 finishes.  The reason I love him at this price tag is his history at this tournament.  Piercy has made the cut in four of his last five trips with a 3rd place finish in 2019 and another two inside the Top 16.  The four time PGA Tour winner has played better golf lately and it shows in his stats.  He ranks 31st in Scrambling, 31st in Around the Green, 48th in Approach, and 55th in Proximity.  He’s always been a good ball striker and when everything is working he can climb leaderboards.  Playing against a field like this one, the price tag is tempting in tournaments.  

Game Type: GPP
G
11000
12100

He has not finished below 12th in any of his last 10 starts on the PGA Tour with two victories.  While he sits as the number two player in the world, Scottie has played well enough to be number one.  He currently ranks 1st in Tee to Green, 1st in Off the Tee, 1st in Greens in Regulation, 2nd in Scoring Average, 6th in Birdie Average, 6th in Approach, and 7th in Scrambling.  Once again you have to pick between Scottie and Rahm, I’m gonna go with him for the discount. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
10300
11500

Since his win at the BMW Championship in mid-August, he has made the cut in nine of his next 10 starts with eight Top 10s.  He is coming off of his best performance at the Masters of his career.  He’s been incredibly close multiple times at Harbour Town but just hasn’t been able to finish the job.  Cantlay has three Top 3s in five trips to Hilton Head.  Patrick just seems like the obvious play this weekend.    

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
9800
11100

The terrific run from Hovland continued as he pushed his cuts made streak to 15 after his 7th place finish at the Masters.  He has 10 Top 20 finishes over that run.  Viktor made the cut and finished Top 25 in his first trip to Harbour Town.  He ranks 4th in Total Driving, 5th in Scoring Average, 8th in Off the Tee, 10th in Birdie Average, 15th in Tee to Green, 18th in Driving Accuracy, 21st in Scrambling, 29th in Approach, and 35th in Putting Average.  Viktor has been locked in all season and I have no reason to believe that this won’t continue on Hilton Head Island.   

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
9100
10600

Max has two wins on the 2022-2023 season with another four Top 10 finishes.  He made his first trip to Hilton Head back in 2020 and made the cut but not a great finish.  It’s pretty obvious that Homa is a fantastic player and what makes his special is that he’s great throughout his bag.  He ranks 5th in Approach, 5th in Birdie Average, 6th in Putting Average, 6th in Tee to Green, 9th in Putting, 10th in Scoring Average, 17th in Total Driving, 22nd in Scrambling, 36th in Around the Green, and 56th in Greens in Regulation.  While he didn’t have a great showing at Augusta, we should see a bounce back in South Carolina.  

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
8900
11000

Wow did he suck in Georgia on Friday.  That 78 ended his weekend early and hopefully gave him some extra motivation this weekend in South Carolina.  Prior to that missed cut at the Masters, he did have two Top 10s and another two finishes of 21st or better over his five previous starts.  He’s never missed the cut in four trips to Harbour Town with two Top 12 finishes.  Thomas ranks 1st on the PGA Tour in Around the Greens, 11th in Tee to Green, and 21st in Birdie Average.  I believe he’ll bounce back this weekend in a big way.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
8500
9900

It has been awhile since we’ve talked about this young man after an incredible run from August 2022 through January of 2023 which included two wins and another four Top 15 finishes.  He has made seven straight cuts coming into this event which includes a Top 20 at the Masters.  While this will be his first trip to the RBC Heritage, I have no doubt that his game will carry over.  Tom ranks 6th in Scrambling, 6th in Scoring Average, 10th in Greens in Regulation, 16th in Tee to Green, 18th in Total Driving, 19th in Approach, and 39th in Approach.  He makes for a great mid-tier option this weekend.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
8300
10200

The Irishman loves playing on Hilton Head Island.  He has two Top 3 finishes and another Top 10 in his last four trips to Harbour Town.  It doesn’t surprise me when you look at his game as a whole.  He ranks 4th in Total Driving, 7th in Driving Accuracy, 19th in Tee to Green, 24th in Approach, 26th in Off the Tee, and 61st in Proximity.  Lowry comes into this weekend after finishing Top 20 at the Masters and making his last six cuts.  He gives you stability in the mid-tier but I know he’ll be highly owned.    

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
8100
9700

He still sits without a PGA Tour victory under his belt but he has made the cut in 11 of his last 12 starts on the PGA Tour.  Tommy made the cut at the Masters and has four Top 5 finishes over that 12 start stretch.  Tommy has made the cut in two of his three trips to Harbour Town including a Top 10 at last year’s edition.  The 32-year-old ranks 2nd in Around the Green, 12th in Tee to Green, 15th in Putting Average, and 25th in Approach.  The numbers don’t wow you this season but we know he can be so much better.  The game he brings to the table fits this course very well.   

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
7800
9800

Corey really disappointed me and most everyone else with his missed cut at the Masters.  He had finished Top 10 at Augusta in three straight trips.  Despite that finish, he’s still made the cut in 14 of his last 17 starts with a victory and another 10 Top 30 finishes.  He has made the cut in his last three trips to Hilton Head with a Top 5 finish in 2021.  The stats are starting to come around to what we expect out of him like ranking 16th in Greens in Regulation, 19th in Off the Tee, 19th in Birdie Average, 24th in Tee to Green, and 26th in Approach.  Another guy I believe could bounce back in a huge way.    

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
7600
9700

He didn’t make the Masters field but that doesn’t take away from his terrific start to the 2022-2023 season.  He started with a sixth at the Fortinet, second at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and since then he’s scored six Top 20 finishes.  While Fowler has missed the cut in his last four trips to Harbour Town, he did finish Top 10 back in 2010.  He is playing much better golf now than he was in his last two trips to this event.  I think it is only a matter of time before he wins an event again.  Fowler got a week off to hang with the wife and baby, now he can get back to work on his comeback.  I’m definitely willing to pay for him once again. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
7400
9100

If Webb cannot get it done this weekend at the RBC Heritage, I don’t know when he’ll ever get it back.  He has not missed a cut at this event since 2009 and has a win, a second, a fifth place, a ninth and another four Top 16 finishes.  The last time he teed it up was at the Valspar where he finished Top 10 for the first time in over a year and a half and parted ways with his long-time caddy.  I’m not even going to bore you with the numbers, but this has got to happen for Webb and it has to happen on this golf course.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
7300
8900

We know he’ll never wow anyone off the tee but that’s not necessary for success at this course.  It shows in his results at Harbour Town scoring three Top 10 finishes in four starts on Hilton Head Island.  Poston also has two Top 10 finishes in his last three starts on tour.  The two time PGA Tour winner is inside the Top 100 in Approach, Tee to Green, Off the Tee, Birdie Average, Scoring Average, Driving Accuracy, and ranks Top 15 in Greens in Regulation.  The price tag is perfect for a guy of his skill level.  

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
7000
8500

A Korn Ferry Tour graduate has looked good thus far during his rookie season on tour.  He actually has back to back Top 3 finishes at the Corales Puntacana and the Valero.  Stevens earned his card by making the cut in 14 of his last 15 events with eight Top 20 finishes over that run.  He currently ranks 14th in Proximity, 25th in Greens in Regulation, 29th in Off the Tee, 34th in Driving Distance, 46th in Putting Average, 48th in Scoring Average, 50th in Total Driving, 58th in Tee to Green, and 66th in Putting.  He will make for a sneaky good tournament option who will likely be low owned this weekend.  

Game Type: GPP
G
7100
8500

How can you not love what this guy is doing right now?  He has made the cut in six straight events with back to back Top 10 finishes at the Corales Puntacana and the Valero.  Ben finished 3rd in his debut at Harbour Town in 2014 and has made the cut here in four of his last six starts.  The reason I love him this weekend is his approach game ranking Top 20 on the PGA Tour.  He is also 20th in Greens in Regulation, 40th in Birdie Average, 48th in Scoring Average, 49th in Driving Accuracy, and 52nd in Tee to Green.  He continues to play as a great value option for salary relief.  

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
6900
8200

JJ has his breakthrough win last year at the Valero but he did have a bit of a hangover missing five cuts over the next three months.  I’m hoping he got things back on track after finishing 22nd in his title defense.  Spaun has only made the cut at this event in two of his five trips to Harbour Town but I like his game on this course ranking 3rd in Scrambling, 9th in Sand Saves, 23rd in Scoring Average, 24th in Greens in Regulation, 49th in Off the Tee, 53rd in Around the Green, 55th in Tee to Green, and 59th in Total Driving.  Those stats are definitely good enough to make some noise this weekend even against a really good field. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
6600
7600

Scott has flashes of great play and it looks like we’re in the middle of one right now.  He’s made the cut in three of his last five starts with two Top 30 finishes.  The reason I love him at this price tag is his history at this tournament.  Piercy has made the cut in four of his last five trips with a 3rd place finish in 2019 and another two inside the Top 16.  The four time PGA Tour winner has played better golf lately and it shows in his stats.  He ranks 31st in Scrambling, 31st in Around the Green, 48th in Approach, and 55th in Proximity.  He’s always been a good ball striker and when everything is working he can climb leaderboards.  Playing against a field like this one, the price tag is tempting in tournaments.  

Game Type: GPP