PGA DFS Playbook for the Charles Schwab Challenge: Top DraftKings & FanDuel PGA DFS Picks

Not much to say about the top-ranked golfer in the world. He speaks for himself. He’s a North Texas native, like a fair amount of players in this field, and he’s coming off a great final round at the PGA Championship where he finished in a tie as the runner-up. He’s finished 12^th or better in every tournament this year including wins at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, the Players Championship, and he was top five at the AT&T Byron Nelson, another North Texas event. You’re paying a premium here, but there’s plenty of win equity and he’s arguably a Cash game lock. For tournaments though, it might be worth being underweight on Scheffler as I’m seeing some projected ownership models placing Scheffler at over 30%. If we’re looking at the winning scores from the last few rounds, Scheffler can get to that -13, -14, -15 score even if he isn’t putting well. He leads the field in weighted tee-to-green and approach metrics over the last 24 rounds and you can find enough mispriced value plays to plug in so you can load up on Scheffler if you feel so inclined.

There’s a lot going in Finau’s favor and he’s a great pivot of Scheffler. Finau had a disastrous final round last weekend, but he hasn’t missed a cut in a dozen events in 2023. Hopefully I’m not jinxing him, but the course history lines up well. He’s finished 23^rd or better at Colonial in four straight years and that includes a runner-up in 2019 and a T-4^th finish last year. He hasn’t been elite over the last 36 rounds off the tee or with the putter, but he’s made up for it with his approach play and he’s still fairly accurate off the tee in general. He’s top five in weighted tee-to-green and greens in regulation over his last 24 rounds. A good pivot off Finau and Scheffler might be Collin Morikawa, who won’t garner a bunch of ownership. But he’s very accurate off the tee and with his approach play. He also has decent course history with a runner-up finish back in 2020. The big knock against Morikawa is, and will always be, his putter.

I’ll be honest, I don’t love this $9K range, but I’ll highlight a few players, two of which will be very popular and one of which is a great contrarian option. Let’s start with Spieth, who is a Texas guy, has a Charles Schwab sponsorship, and he’s had four straight top ten finishes at this course. The wrist injury is still a concern, but he did make the cut at last week’s PGA Championship and even finished in the top 30. We didn’t see too many winces or looks of pain so I’m going to operate as if he’s fine. I just wish the injury narrative was driving his projected ownership down a little bit more, but he does have a win on this course from seven years ago.

There are plenty of players to consider in this range, and normally I don’t like targeting the defending champion at an event. That strategy really burned me when I did a full fade of Scottie Scheffler at this year’s WM Phoenix Open. But as I said, Burns won this event last year, but I’m seeing him coming in at under 10% ownership on a few different sites. The weighted approach and around the green play has been a little off lately as he’s been losing strokes, but the putter has been clicking. I completely acknowledge the recent form isn’t great with two missed cuts, but we’re getting the defending champion of the event in a very nice leverage spot.

I love the current form for Justin Rose and while the price tag is elevated this week, there’s some win equity here. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am back in February and proceeded to miss two cuts. However, since those missed cuts he’s made the weekend in five straight tournaments and he’s coming off a top ten finish at last week’s PGA Championship. Prior to his 2020 season where he was in horrendous form, constantly switching golf clubs, firing his coach, swapping caddies, etc. there was once a time when he was one of the best bentgrass green putters on the tour. The short game has looked great and he’s gained strokes via approach in eight of his last nine events. And it also doesn’t hurt that he won this tournament in 2018 when it was known as the Fort Worth Invitational.

I’m seeing some other sites projecting Tommy Fleetwood for 15-20% ownership and I think that’s a little high. I personally think it’ll be closer to 11-12% but I could be wrong. There are so many $9K players projecting for over 15% ownership this week that it has to be inaccurate for one of these guys. But I’m liking Fleetwood’s form this week. In both his weighted and raw metrics, he’s gaining strokes across the board: off the tee, approach, around the green, tee to green, and with the putter. He’s made eight straight cuts including top 20 finishes in three straight events.

A lot of the ownership in this price range will go to Rickie Fowler, who should bounce back and make the cut this week. Kudos to all those who faded him last week when he missed the cut at heavy ownership. However, prior to that, Fowler was T-15 or better in four straight events. But I’m a big GPP player and I’ll pivot to Henley who I’m seeing at under ten percent ownership this weekend. Like Fowler, Henley also missed the cut so if the “extra rest” narrative is available to Fowler, then it also applies to Henley. Henley won’t drive it as far off the tee as Fowler, but he’s definitely more accurate. My main concern is that he hasn’t been playing much and maybe he was just very rusty for last week’s major. So you are taking a little risk here that some rust carries over, but I’m going to play him for leverage.

McCarthy probably gets overlooked in this range, but he’s made five straight cuts finishing in the top 30 in each of those events as well. He’s not as accurate hitting fairways as Henley, but he’s still gained strokes tee to green and with the putter over his last 36 rounds. The approach and around the green play are a concern, but overall McCarthy is shaping up nicely in this range for Tournaments with likely less than 10% ownership.

Davis had an outstanding final round at the PGA Championship where he shot a 65 and snuck into the top five. His phenomenal round helped push my round four showdown lineup into the green. He’s not the most accurate driver off the tee, but he is long off the tee and the current form is looking better. After a string of missed cuts back in January and February, he has three finishes of seventh of better in his last five events. He’s losing strokes with the putter so for that reason I’d consider him more of a Tournament play.

I love Moore’s current form even if he did have a horrendous weekend at the PGA Championship, highlighted by the clip of him throwing his driver. He’s made seven straight cuts and has gained strokes off the tee in six of his past seven events. He finished 15-over par at the PGA Championship so I’m sure you can guess which event he lost strokes off the tee. Either way, the T-72^nd finish last week was his first finish outside the top 40 since he missed the cut at the Genesis back in February. But he’s hitting the ball on all cylinders lately and has even found great success with the putter where he’s been gaining strokes.

Bez missed the cut last week at the PGA Championship, but prior to that he was T-23^rd at the AT&T Byron Nelson and he was T-28^th at the Valero Texas Open. So we’re looking at a guy that might be mispriced who has performed well in the state of Texas. Not incredibly long off the tee, but he is fairly accurate and he got a little extra rest last weekend. We aren’t getting a ton of win equity in this range, but I do feel good about him making the cut.

When we talk about pure ball strikers on the PGA Tour, Grillo usually comes to mind in this tier of golfers. He had a horrendous first round at Oak Hill last week and despite the solid round two, the damage had already been done and he missed the cut. But this is a guy that’s great from tee to green and his iron play is above average as well. The putter is far from elite, but we can hang our hats on the fact that he has historically performed better on bentgrass greens than any other surface. Prior to the missed cut at the PGA Championship, he was T-7^th at the RBC Heritage, T-5^th at the Mexico Open, and T-23^rd at the Wells Fargo Championship. He’s also made the cut in six of his previous seven trips to Colonial Country Club.

I went back and forth between Buckley and Eric Cole in this range. Cole is a good play still, but I do worry about fatigue setting in. This marks his fifth straight tournament that he’s played in and he’s coming off a T-15^th finish at the PGA Championship. By all accounts he hasn’t been losing strokes in any metric of late, but he’s just had such a busy schedule over the last month. So I’m currently leaning Buckley over Cole. While Cole has been good everywhere, he isn’t as good as Buckley off the tee and with accuracy. Buckley has his struggles around the green, but I’ll take Buckley’s accuracy if the greens are playing fast like they did for this event last year.

I really hope this one doesn’t burn me, but here we go. Stevens is a native Texan that previously played very well at the Valero Texas Open (finished as the runner-up) and he was T-34^th at the AT&T Byron Nelson. There is some variance to his game because he’s missed four cuts this year, but he’s made three straight heading into this event. There are some players in the $6K range that provide more accuracy off the tee than Stevens, but this guy is in play for Tournaments due to the length off the tee and his approach play. He’s been pretty rough with the putter of late.

I don’t necessarily love Putnam for Tournaments because I just don’t see much of a ceiling, but he’s live for Cash games. Putnam missed the cut on the number at the PGA Championship and before that he had to withdraw from the Wells Fargo with a back injury after playing 15 holes in round one. His second-round last week at Oak Hill Country Club was promising because he was one shot from making the cut. Hopefully with a little extra rest the back injury is no issue. In his last five appearances at Colonial Country Club he has three finishes inside the top 20 including a T-3^rd finish back in 2019. I’ll also bake in the fact that he’s one of the better bentgrass putters on tour.

This is another situation where I was struggling between two players: Joseph Bramlett and Vincent Norrman. Neither played in last week’s major and Bramlett has better metrics all around, especially with the putter. So while Bramlett isn’t featured he’s still a good play and one that I’ll include in some Tournament builds. But I just think the ceiling for Norrman might be a little bit higher. He’s played in six events dating back to March with two missed cuts. But he’s usually doing damage when he is making the cut, including four finishes in the top 25 including a top ten finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson. I’ll be mixing in both, but I do favor Norrman just slightly.

Reavie’s turned it around after a brutal start to the year that saw him miss SIX straight cuts over a two-month period. But he’s bounced back making four of the last five cuts, including at last week’s PGA Championship. He’s not incredibly long off the tee, but he is one of the more accurate drivers in this range. It was less than two months ago he managed to finish in a tie for sixth place at the Valero Texas Open so I’m hoping he can keep that magic alive for another Texas tournament. And here’s another bonus with Reavie, if he makes the weekend he’s one of the best round four scorers on the tour. So keep that in mind for Showdown builds on Sunday if he makes the cut. But for the main slate, he’s a fringe Cash game play, but one that I like for Tournaments that’ll likely see less than five percent ownership.

Martin’s typically one of my favorite value plays each week. I’m really hoping he can get back on track after missing the cut at last week’s PGA Championship. The good news is that missed cut marked his first cut in nearly four months dating way back to the Farmers Insurance Open at the end of January. Martin’s almost just as accurate off the tee as Reavie is and he gives you a little more distance. I’d probably give Martin the nod in Cash games while targeting Reavie in Tournaments because there will be more leverage, but still like both value plays. 

Wu didn’t play in last week’s tournament and he previously missed the cut at the AT&T Byron Nelson. By all accounts he should be well rested, right? Prior to the Byron Nelson, he made nine straight cuts with five finishes in the top 30 in that span. He’s probably been over performing with the putter in that span, but the approach and tee to green play have been pretty good compared to other players in this range. I’m fine playing him in Cash and Tournament contests.

What a time to be alive. Michael Block, fresh off his Cinderella run at the PGA Championship, is $6,900 on DraftKings while Carson Young is sitting at $6,300. Make it make sense. Young is probably one of the more accurate drivers in this low $6K range on DK and he’s been pretty good off the tee. The knock against him is probably the around the green play and we don’t have much course history to consider for him. You could pivot to Adam Long for the same price tag with far better course history, but I’ll still take Young over Long because when he makes the cut he’s been doing damage with three top 20 finishes in his last four appearances.