The 2022 PGA Tour checks in this week from McKinney, Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. This is the final tournament before next week’s PGA Championship in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Tiger Woods is listed on the final entry list for next week’s action so it’s always worth tuning in whenever he’s in the field. But we still have to get through this week and this particular tournament features plenty of big names. Be sure to check out the weekly PGA DFS Coverage article, which is a new feature we’ll be offering up ahead of each tournament to give the lay of the land for that week’s tournament. SEVEN of the top 15 players in the 2022 FedEx Cup Standings are featured this week including 2022 Masters Champion, Scottie Scheffler, RBC Heritage winner and Dallas native, Jordan Spieth. Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, and Hideki Matsuyama will also tee it up in North Texas for this weekend’s tournament. While a good portion of the field will use this as a tune up for next week’s Major tournament, we can expect a lot of the big names to be featured atop the AT&T Byron Nelson leaderboard come Sunday. The four golfers priced over $10,000 on DraftKings will likely be among the highest-owned players in the field, but just confirm with our PGA DFS Ownership Projections on Wednesday, and our PGA DFS Projections are currently live for this week’s slate as well.

 

As far as weather is concerned this weekend for the AT&T Byron Nelson, it looks like we’re looking good for clear skies. Typically with bad weather or high winds we may rely on PGA tee times a little bit more to target golfers that are more than likely to avoid high winds or wet conditions. That’s not the case this week, but “Texas wind” could whip up at some point. It’s highly unlikely to rain, which is the good news. These fairways are very wide and easy to hit. Additionally, pricing is relatively soft across the board this week and we should see a ton of birdies. That makes me feel better about leaning into a lot of value plays this week given how easy it is to hit the fairways. Lastly, be on the lookout for last-minute withdrawals from the tournament. Any player that is in the field for the PGA Championship that is also dealing with a minor injury may simply pull out just to rest up for the second Major of the season. So keep an ear to the ground on Wednesday into Thursday morning.

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Dominate your PGA DFS contests this week with our Player ProjectionsLineup GeneratorDraft Percentage ForecasterExample Lineups

Pos
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Player
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DK
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Draft %
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FD
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Draft %
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GScottie Scheffler1090027.5%1210035.9%

How can I not mention the top-ranked player in the world? He’s won four of his last six tournaments that he’s entered this year and among the losses are The Players (which was played in poor conditions and that tournament breeds chaos no matter what) and the Genesis where he still finished seventh. $10,900 on DraftKings and even $12,100 on FanDuel feel a bit soft. But he’s so well rounded as a golfer that he warrants consideration regardless of the tournament. My only concern is the layoff. He hasn’t played in a few weeks and it does feel like he’s strictly using this as a way to get himself ready for next week. How much motivation does he have? Is he simply looking at this tournament as four rounds of practice? He won’t be my highest owned player on the slate.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GJustin Thomas1060026.1%1190034.5%

He’s the second-most expensive player on the board and will be one of the more expensive players on any DFS site you look at. He is probably my favorite play for this slate. These fairways will be easy to hit which means I want the best iron player on tour in my DFS lineups. Thomas ranks second in Putting: BoB, first in Par 4 scoring, and third in Par 5 scoring. Considering this will be a birdie-fest this weekend I will lock him into many of my builds.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GJordan Spieth1010020.6%1170027.6%

I didn’t want to include each of the four most expensive golfers on DK. I will play some of Dustin Johnson, but not a ton. I’ll lean into the hometown narrative for Spieth. When he won the RBC Heritage last month he was 4th in Strokes Gained off the tee, 1st in Tee-to-Green, and 10th in Approach… But to no surprise he lost strokes putting. That’s basically the concern every week with Spieth. But he loves playing in his home state so I expect a show this week.

Game Type: GPP
GSam Burns950030.9%1140035.1%

I’m not too worried about the fact the greens aren’t his favorite surface, but I’ll still be squeezing in Swingin’ Sammy Burns. In terms of ball striking he might be the best in the field and he’s won this year so we’re getting good win equity. He’s top ten in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and top ten in Greens In Regulation. Burns was the runner-up here in 2021 if you’re looking for some course history. I won’t do a full write-up on Hideki Matsuyama, but I do like him as a more contrarian play. Ownership could be light because of the concerns he could withdraw over the neck injury, but he’s among the best in the field in all the strokes gained categories and he’s a great GPP play if he doesn’t withdraw.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GWill Zalatoris940024.7%1120027.7%

He is a very strong one and done pick this week. We don’t have a lot of course history data to look at and I’m not sure how much weight I want to put into last year’s tournament. But he’s local to this course and he claims he’s played it hundreds of times. That could give him an edge but at the same time, this course is easy. He led the field in approach last year and he seemed to have figured out the putter at Augusta while his approach game was rough. But Augusta is a beast of a course and he still finished sixth despite the poor approach. This course is far easier, and it caters to his strengths. He’s my favorite play in this $9K range on DraftKings.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GJoaquin Niemann930016.6%1090019.3%

Here’s a guy I rarely play and that’s a bad habit of mine. But he’s looked great this year overall. He finished T-6 at the Farmers, he won the Genesis and had good showings at the Players, Masters, and RBC Heritage. His approach game is strong and as you can see from the projections, our model likes him a lot.

Game Type: GPP
GTalor Gooch860019.9%1080017.2%

Routinely one of my favorite PGA DFS plays whenever he’s in the field. I just think he has potential “slate breaking” upside and when I do play multiple lineups I like being overweight on him in the event he does pop up. But there’s also risk because he’s missed a few cuts this year. But when he has made the cut he hasn’t finished worse than 30th with a few top 15 finishes mixed in as well. He’s top 20 with greens in regulation, he’s first in Par 3 scoring, and top five in Par 5 scoring. He’s not great off the tee but given the layout of the course I’m not concerned this week. He definitely wants to put on a great showing at the PGA Championship next week and this is a great course for him to round into prime form.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GJhonattan Vegas840017.2%1020011.0%

Arm injury be damned! He came back last week after a month off and finished T-15 at Wells Fargo. He gained TEN strokes on approach last week. Am I a bit concerned he could withdraw this week just to make sure he’s healthy and ready for next week? Sure. But prior to the arm surgery he was T-18 at the Valero, T-4 at Corales, and T-27 at the Valspar. He’s a good ball striker, shouldn’t have any issues with the around the green play given how easy it should be to hit fairways and then the greens, and he could very well follow up last week’s strong showing with a repeat performance. He finished T-9 here a year ago.

Game Type: GPP
GAdam Hadwin800016.0%950021.4%

Here’s another guy who has been great with the Approach. The one time I was probably heaviest on him was for the Genesis and of course he missed the cut. But that was arguably his worst performance in terms of approach, and it showed with the missed cut. He did miss the cut at the Zurich but that’s such a bizarre tournament format that I won’t hold that one against him. He was T-26 at the RBC Heritage after rolling off three straight top ten finishes, so I think the recent form is perfectly fine. If you can stomach the variance, I don’t hate Aaron Wise in this range but you can just look at his profile to see the range of outcomes he can dish out. He did look good in Mexico a few weeks back, but he’s certainly missed a few cuts as well.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GSeamus Power79005.9%99004.4%

I think most people will go to Cameron Champ because a lot of folks will see the recent form and be absolutely disgusted by Power. In his last six tournaments he’s missed four cuts. Strangely enough the two cuts he did make were at The Masters and Players. Kind of bizarre, but alas he hasn’t played well of late. But those were far more difficult courses. This week everything lines up for him. The course is easy (he grabbed a top ten here a year ago), he’s good on Bentgrass greens, and ownership could be soft. If he can’t bounce back and finish well here then maybe he’s dealing with an injury, but I certainly hope that’s not the case. 

Game Type: GPP
GLanto Griffin77009.1%95006.7%

Griffin comes in looking great in terms of recent form and he’s an above average putter. I typically don’t put too much stock in putting because even the best putters have bad weeks and this category can be a bit fluky in my opinion. However, if I can find a strong putter in this range I’ll invest in a player’s strengths. He was 6th last week at the Wells Fargo and T-15 in Mexico. He should be able to take advantage of this easy course and he’s projected to finish 15th according to our projections.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GMito Pereira760014.6%92003.5%

I probably prefer him in just GPP’s, but I also don’t hate him for Cash games and ultimately when we get a look at ownership projections if he’s going to be a popular value option, then we can mix him in for Cash games. His iron play is on point and given the nature of this course it sets up well for him. There is some variance here as he’s missed a few cuts this year. However, when he’s made the cut he’s been finishing in the top 30 just about. For a player under $8K that’s great value. Our projections are quite bullish on him at the moment with 21 birdies. I don’t know if I’m that optimistic, but I agree with the projections in the sense that he could provide a fantastic return.

Game Type: GPP
GSepp Straka76008.3%94001.7%

I’m not a big reddit guy, I barely know how to use the format but I’ve seen a few different channels touch on how Straka screwed everyone last week. And I get it, that’s frustration from DFS players. But he missed the cut by just one stroke. All in all he’s still a great value play in my opinion and it’s possible those scorned lovers from a week ago will avoid him this week. If that’s the case I may try to be overweight. This is an easy course and he’s a guy who can very well bounce back from last week’s debacle. Keith Mitchell is a fine play who has seen his betting odds get shorter throughout the week, but he could be slightly more popular than Straka this week, but he gets my seal of approval.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GMatthew Wolff72003.0%87003.1%

This is obviously a GPP only play. He’s certainly had his struggles and not just on the course. He’s been vocal about how his shortcomings on the course have impacted him off the course. Everything looked like it was in his favor after the first round at Wells Fargo last week when he shot a 65. Ultimately, he’d go on and finished one shot over par, but it was his first top 60 all season. He’s missed four cuts this year. But if everything is right with him, he can mash and break the slate. An easy course like TPC Craig Ranch is the perfect place to regain your confidence. If you want to just play him in Round 1 Showdown contests, that’s a good way to mix in exposure without him screwing your main slate builds since he typically performs best in the opening round.

Game Type: GPP
GPatton Kizzire710012.3%90004.1%

Here’s another guy I’m usually a sucker for. But he did finish T-3 here a year ago and typically does well when the PGA Tour swings through Texas. He’s 11th in BoB, 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds and he’s top 20 in Par 5 scoring. Is there win equity here? Not really. But again, we have an easy course and if the approach game is there he should score well. I also don't hate pivoting to Tom Hoge who is a similar price on FanDuel but slightly more expensive on DraftKings. The length off the tee isn't great and he's had some tough luck putting of late, but he should get birdies this week. It's just a question of if he can make the cut but we know he has GPP upside with a win and a couple other top ten finishes this year.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GHudson Swafford67004.6%76004.8%

I think this week shapes up well for Swafford. It’s an easy course and the fairways and greens should be easy to hit, which minimize his around the green deficiencies. Swafford experienced the highest of high’s after winning the American Express in January. He followed that up with missing the cut in four of his next five events. But in his last four events he’s made the cut in all of them including three top 40 finishes.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GAustin Smotherman66005.5%81004.2%

There isn’t any win equity here, but Smotherman has gained strokes with his Approach play in about five or six straight tournaments so I want to take advantage of his strong iron play and momentum. I do believe most of the industry is touting him for this week just based on trends I’ve seen on social media, but that’s fine. It’s hard to find a good value play you can feel good about making the cut, but Smotherman can do that. Plus he’s coming off a top 25 finish last week at Wells Fargo.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
GPaul Barjon63002.0%72002.4%

I almost threw up in my mouth writing up Barjon but here we go. His around the green play? Awful. His putter? No Bueno. If this was any other course I probably wouldn’t go here. But I texted a friend of mine who I trust for golf betting last week looking for a longshot/cheap play. He said Barjon can be a punt if I couldn’t play anyone else. Did I play him? No. His tendency to miss cuts was a turn off. But then he went out and made the cut, but still finished +8. But we’re at a course where around the green play shouldn’t be a problem because approach should be easier for the whole field and that’s actually a strength for Barjon. That still means he has to putt and he could easily… EASILY… lose a lot of strokes with the putter. But I will go down here if I absolutely have to in a GPP. 

Game Type: GPP
G
10900
12100

How can I not mention the top-ranked player in the world? He’s won four of his last six tournaments that he’s entered this year and among the losses are The Players (which was played in poor conditions and that tournament breeds chaos no matter what) and the Genesis where he still finished seventh. $10,900 on DraftKings and even $12,100 on FanDuel feel a bit soft. But he’s so well rounded as a golfer that he warrants consideration regardless of the tournament. My only concern is the layoff. He hasn’t played in a few weeks and it does feel like he’s strictly using this as a way to get himself ready for next week. How much motivation does he have? Is he simply looking at this tournament as four rounds of practice? He won’t be my highest owned player on the slate.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
10600
11900

He’s the second-most expensive player on the board and will be one of the more expensive players on any DFS site you look at. He is probably my favorite play for this slate. These fairways will be easy to hit which means I want the best iron player on tour in my DFS lineups. Thomas ranks second in Putting: BoB, first in Par 4 scoring, and third in Par 5 scoring. Considering this will be a birdie-fest this weekend I will lock him into many of my builds.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
10100
11700

I didn’t want to include each of the four most expensive golfers on DK. I will play some of Dustin Johnson, but not a ton. I’ll lean into the hometown narrative for Spieth. When he won the RBC Heritage last month he was 4th in Strokes Gained off the tee, 1st in Tee-to-Green, and 10th in Approach… But to no surprise he lost strokes putting. That’s basically the concern every week with Spieth. But he loves playing in his home state so I expect a show this week.

Game Type: GPP
G
9500
11400

I’m not too worried about the fact the greens aren’t his favorite surface, but I’ll still be squeezing in Swingin’ Sammy Burns. In terms of ball striking he might be the best in the field and he’s won this year so we’re getting good win equity. He’s top ten in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and top ten in Greens In Regulation. Burns was the runner-up here in 2021 if you’re looking for some course history. I won’t do a full write-up on Hideki Matsuyama, but I do like him as a more contrarian play. Ownership could be light because of the concerns he could withdraw over the neck injury, but he’s among the best in the field in all the strokes gained categories and he’s a great GPP play if he doesn’t withdraw.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
9400
11200

He is a very strong one and done pick this week. We don’t have a lot of course history data to look at and I’m not sure how much weight I want to put into last year’s tournament. But he’s local to this course and he claims he’s played it hundreds of times. That could give him an edge but at the same time, this course is easy. He led the field in approach last year and he seemed to have figured out the putter at Augusta while his approach game was rough. But Augusta is a beast of a course and he still finished sixth despite the poor approach. This course is far easier, and it caters to his strengths. He’s my favorite play in this $9K range on DraftKings.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
9300
10900

Here’s a guy I rarely play and that’s a bad habit of mine. But he’s looked great this year overall. He finished T-6 at the Farmers, he won the Genesis and had good showings at the Players, Masters, and RBC Heritage. His approach game is strong and as you can see from the projections, our model likes him a lot.

Game Type: GPP
G
8600
10800

Routinely one of my favorite PGA DFS plays whenever he’s in the field. I just think he has potential “slate breaking” upside and when I do play multiple lineups I like being overweight on him in the event he does pop up. But there’s also risk because he’s missed a few cuts this year. But when he has made the cut he hasn’t finished worse than 30th with a few top 15 finishes mixed in as well. He’s top 20 with greens in regulation, he’s first in Par 3 scoring, and top five in Par 5 scoring. He’s not great off the tee but given the layout of the course I’m not concerned this week. He definitely wants to put on a great showing at the PGA Championship next week and this is a great course for him to round into prime form.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
8400
10200

Arm injury be damned! He came back last week after a month off and finished T-15 at Wells Fargo. He gained TEN strokes on approach last week. Am I a bit concerned he could withdraw this week just to make sure he’s healthy and ready for next week? Sure. But prior to the arm surgery he was T-18 at the Valero, T-4 at Corales, and T-27 at the Valspar. He’s a good ball striker, shouldn’t have any issues with the around the green play given how easy it should be to hit fairways and then the greens, and he could very well follow up last week’s strong showing with a repeat performance. He finished T-9 here a year ago.

Game Type: GPP
G
8000
9500

Here’s another guy who has been great with the Approach. The one time I was probably heaviest on him was for the Genesis and of course he missed the cut. But that was arguably his worst performance in terms of approach, and it showed with the missed cut. He did miss the cut at the Zurich but that’s such a bizarre tournament format that I won’t hold that one against him. He was T-26 at the RBC Heritage after rolling off three straight top ten finishes, so I think the recent form is perfectly fine. If you can stomach the variance, I don’t hate Aaron Wise in this range but you can just look at his profile to see the range of outcomes he can dish out. He did look good in Mexico a few weeks back, but he’s certainly missed a few cuts as well.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
7900
9900

I think most people will go to Cameron Champ because a lot of folks will see the recent form and be absolutely disgusted by Power. In his last six tournaments he’s missed four cuts. Strangely enough the two cuts he did make were at The Masters and Players. Kind of bizarre, but alas he hasn’t played well of late. But those were far more difficult courses. This week everything lines up for him. The course is easy (he grabbed a top ten here a year ago), he’s good on Bentgrass greens, and ownership could be soft. If he can’t bounce back and finish well here then maybe he’s dealing with an injury, but I certainly hope that’s not the case. 

Game Type: GPP
G
7700
9500

Griffin comes in looking great in terms of recent form and he’s an above average putter. I typically don’t put too much stock in putting because even the best putters have bad weeks and this category can be a bit fluky in my opinion. However, if I can find a strong putter in this range I’ll invest in a player’s strengths. He was 6th last week at the Wells Fargo and T-15 in Mexico. He should be able to take advantage of this easy course and he’s projected to finish 15th according to our projections.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
7600
9200

I probably prefer him in just GPP’s, but I also don’t hate him for Cash games and ultimately when we get a look at ownership projections if he’s going to be a popular value option, then we can mix him in for Cash games. His iron play is on point and given the nature of this course it sets up well for him. There is some variance here as he’s missed a few cuts this year. However, when he’s made the cut he’s been finishing in the top 30 just about. For a player under $8K that’s great value. Our projections are quite bullish on him at the moment with 21 birdies. I don’t know if I’m that optimistic, but I agree with the projections in the sense that he could provide a fantastic return.

Game Type: GPP
G
7600
9400

I’m not a big reddit guy, I barely know how to use the format but I’ve seen a few different channels touch on how Straka screwed everyone last week. And I get it, that’s frustration from DFS players. But he missed the cut by just one stroke. All in all he’s still a great value play in my opinion and it’s possible those scorned lovers from a week ago will avoid him this week. If that’s the case I may try to be overweight. This is an easy course and he’s a guy who can very well bounce back from last week’s debacle. Keith Mitchell is a fine play who has seen his betting odds get shorter throughout the week, but he could be slightly more popular than Straka this week, but he gets my seal of approval.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
7200
8700

This is obviously a GPP only play. He’s certainly had his struggles and not just on the course. He’s been vocal about how his shortcomings on the course have impacted him off the course. Everything looked like it was in his favor after the first round at Wells Fargo last week when he shot a 65. Ultimately, he’d go on and finished one shot over par, but it was his first top 60 all season. He’s missed four cuts this year. But if everything is right with him, he can mash and break the slate. An easy course like TPC Craig Ranch is the perfect place to regain your confidence. If you want to just play him in Round 1 Showdown contests, that’s a good way to mix in exposure without him screwing your main slate builds since he typically performs best in the opening round.

Game Type: GPP
G
7100
9000

Here’s another guy I’m usually a sucker for. But he did finish T-3 here a year ago and typically does well when the PGA Tour swings through Texas. He’s 11th in BoB, 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds and he’s top 20 in Par 5 scoring. Is there win equity here? Not really. But again, we have an easy course and if the approach game is there he should score well. I also don't hate pivoting to Tom Hoge who is a similar price on FanDuel but slightly more expensive on DraftKings. The length off the tee isn't great and he's had some tough luck putting of late, but he should get birdies this week. It's just a question of if he can make the cut but we know he has GPP upside with a win and a couple other top ten finishes this year.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
6700
7600

I think this week shapes up well for Swafford. It’s an easy course and the fairways and greens should be easy to hit, which minimize his around the green deficiencies. Swafford experienced the highest of high’s after winning the American Express in January. He followed that up with missing the cut in four of his next five events. But in his last four events he’s made the cut in all of them including three top 40 finishes.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
6600
8100

There isn’t any win equity here, but Smotherman has gained strokes with his Approach play in about five or six straight tournaments so I want to take advantage of his strong iron play and momentum. I do believe most of the industry is touting him for this week just based on trends I’ve seen on social media, but that’s fine. It’s hard to find a good value play you can feel good about making the cut, but Smotherman can do that. Plus he’s coming off a top 25 finish last week at Wells Fargo.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
G
6300
7200

I almost threw up in my mouth writing up Barjon but here we go. His around the green play? Awful. His putter? No Bueno. If this was any other course I probably wouldn’t go here. But I texted a friend of mine who I trust for golf betting last week looking for a longshot/cheap play. He said Barjon can be a punt if I couldn’t play anyone else. Did I play him? No. His tendency to miss cuts was a turn off. But then he went out and made the cut, but still finished +8. But we’re at a course where around the green play shouldn’t be a problem because approach should be easier for the whole field and that’s actually a strength for Barjon. That still means he has to putt and he could easily… EASILY… lose a lot of strokes with the putter. But I will go down here if I absolutely have to in a GPP. 

Game Type: GPP