CFB Best Bets - Saturday, 9/21: Expert Picks, Predictions & Player Props
It’s hard to believe, but this is already Week 4 of the college football season and my CFB best bets. Although the CFB predictions last week went 4-4, we had our first losing week last time out from a units standpoint, but only lost half a unit, and are still up 3 overall on the season!
A couple of bad beats really hurt us in Week 3, but fear not. This Saturday’s games present a perfect opportunity to rake in some more cash! I’m really liking where we’re at up to this point, as it seems like surviving the early weeks is crucial the rest of the way.
Not only have we survived, but we’ve come out ahead by a few units. We’re in a phenomenal position to build upon that!
CFB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets: Saturday, 9/21
Get set to check out my favorite CFB best bets for Week 4! This Saturday, I’ll be diving into the thrilling matchups happening on September 21st.
That said, below you will find my Marshall vs. Ohio State prediction, USC vs. Michigan prediction, Utah vs. Oklahoma State prediction and more. I can’t wait to share my CFB predictions with you and increase that bankroll!
- Season Record: 16-13
- Units W/L: +3 Units
*All CFB best bets to be placed at 1 Unit unless otherwise specified. Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @stevenw_hall!
Marshall vs. Ohio State Prediction: Saturday, September 21st
Though they’ve only played two games, this Ohio State offense is already the real deal and showcasing why many believe they’re bound for the National Championship Game. QB Will Howard’s transition from Kansas State has been seamless, and the same thing can be said for RB Quinshon Judkins coming from Ole Miss.
The wildcard in all of this has been and is WR Jeremiah Smith. They already have Emeka Egbuka out there, but Smith has been even better than expected and could even be a dark horse Heisman candidate.
As for Marshall, they figure to be at a significant disadvantage here on both sides of the ball for obvious reasons – coaching, talent, you name it. Their last time out, they let Virginia Tech put up 31 points on 208 yards rushing, and respectfully, VT is no OSU. The Buckeyes are averaging 54 points per game, which that alone would push this total over.
They might not quite get there, but the Thundering Herd have shown just enough on offense, particularly on the ground (34th in NCAAF), where they should be able to put up at least something.
This line truly makes no sense to me, but I’ll take it for the first of our Week 4 CFB best bets. The Buckeyes’ first game’s total was set at 56 and it went over, the second one was at 54.5 and it went over and now, this one’s even lower at 52.5. Rinse and repeat.
- Expert Marshall vs. Ohio State Prediction: Over 52.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
USC vs. Michigan Prediction: Saturday, September 21st
We missed out on the Texas vs. Michigan game total by just half a point, but I’m confident in running that same bet back in their matchup against USC in Week 4 CFB picks. The Wolverines have continued to look putrid offensively, and now, they’re making a change at quarterback to Alex Orji.
He’s a much superior athlete to previous starter Davis Warren, but he’s thrown just 7 total passes in his collegiate career (while rushing the ball 31 times). I’m not sure if the grind-it-out, run-down-their-throats approach is a good one when the USC offense on the other side is so potent with Miller Moss commanding things.
The Trojan defense is also letting up just 100 rushing yards per game, so again, scoring could come at a premium for the Wolverines. The same could be said for USC if they become one dimensional. Their rushing attack is already below average, and Michigan has been one of the better run defenses in the country thus far.
At the end of the day, I’ll say the same thing I said a couple of weeks ago: It’s either going to be a big USC win and the Wolverines continue to look completely lost on offense, or it’ll be a close, defensive battle down to the wire. I just can't imagine this situation turning into a shootout, as the under is a combined 4-1 so far for these two squads.
- Expert USC vs. Michigan Prediction: Under 44.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Utah vs. Oklahoma State Prediction: Saturday, September 21st
One more game total wager to round out Week 4 CFB best bets! I’m normally more of a spread bettor, but some of the lines this week from a total standpoint just really caught my eye. This is one of those games with the Utah Utes facing the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Cam Rising’s health will be a big key to this one, but as of now, he’s slated to play and lead a Utes offense scoring 36.7 points per game through 3 contests. They now get to go up against an OSU defense that has been absolutely abysmal from a yardage standpoint, and has allowed 20+ points in 2 of their 3 games.
On the other side, we all know about how explosive RB Ollie Gordon II is, but QB Alan Bowman has thrived thus far as well. The Cowboys are putting up some healthy numbers as an offense overall, ranking in the top 20 in the country in passing yards (334, 8th) and points (42.7, 17th) per game.
The Utes have been solid on defense up to this point, but it's worth pointing out they’ve only played Southern Utah, Baylor and Utah State, with the Aggies even finding some success offensively. I’m not sure who exactly wins, but I like for there to be a lot of points scored and for the under to move to 3-0 in Oklahoma State home games in 2024.
- Expert Utah vs. Oklahoma State Prediction: Over 52.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Best CFB Prop Bets & Other Picks - Saturday, 9/21
- Kalel Mullings (MICH) To Score A Touchdown (+130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Travis Hunter (CU) O90.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Rice vs. Army: Black Knights -6 (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
- California vs. Florida State Under 44.5 (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Wyoming vs. North Texas: Mean Green -7 (-110 at Bet365 Sportsbook)
Player News
Dolphins signed No. 13 overall pick DT Kenneth Grant to a four-year contract.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Grant will sign his contract today. The former Michigan defensive tackle is expected to fill a major void left by Christian Wilkins, who left for the Raiders in the 2024 offseason. Grant totaled 32 tackles, three sacks, and seven TFLs in his final season at Michigan and excelled at stopping the run while also generating 27 pressures in his final season, per PFF.
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.