NHL Best Bets and Betting Picks: October 11th
Welp, opening night of the NHL regular season did not go according to plan as I took a pair of losses. The silver lining is that its day 1 of a long long season and to be honest there isn't a ton of relevant data to go off of at this point as every season is a brand new entity especially in the NHL with all the roster moves, coaching changes and line shuffles. The process through the model and general knowledge will prevail but on occasion there will be some bumps in the road. With that said its a new day and there are 6 more NHL games on the slate to dive into and once again there are a pair of bets I am ready to turn into winning tickets! In today's edition of the NHL Best Bets we have a Puck Line on a home favorite and a game total to fade to the under, good luck to everyone out there today let's get back on track.
- Season Record: 0-2-0
- Bankroll: -2.0 units
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**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.
NHL Best Bets for October 11
Chicago Blackhawks at Boston Bruins
The NHL scheduling department has a weird way of doing things most seasons and on day 2 of this brand new year they have the Blackhawks traveling for a back to back game. Chicago did win yesterday over the Penguins in a come from behind thriller but if they go do again tonight against a team like Boston they are going to have issues. The Bruins may not be the team they were last season but they are still loaded with talent and on the blue line as well. The defense is so respected that the Blackhawks are only projected to score 2.2 goals tonight according to the model. This probably has a lot to do with Linus Ullmark starting in net tonight for the Bruins after winning the Vezina Trophy as the best goaltender in the NHL. The Bruins are going to be thin down the middle this season but so are the Blackhawks and they are young which plays to the advantage of Boston and their consistent level of play. Still not a ton of relevant data to work off of in day 2 of the season but the Bruins are always the Bruins and have a model score outcome of 70.3% to cover the spread tonight, so let's take them at home on the Puck Line to get the season started right.
Pick: Boston Bruins Puck Line -1.5 (-125 on FanDuel)
Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames
You have to love big rivalry game to start the NHL season and this one should have no love lost! Though they are in different divisions these days the two teams play often in the schedule as they met 3 times last season. I highlight that because in all 3 of those games last season the under hit in every game and I see more of the same even in a new campaign for each side. The backbone of the wager is the goaltending of Connor Hellebuyck who strapped the team to his back last season with 37 wins a GAA of 2.49 and a SV% of .920. I don't see his play declining just yet and I expect a bounce back season from Jacob Markstrom who had the worst statistical year of his career last season. On top of the goalies the offenses just aren't as scary as they used to be as the Jets let Pierre-Luc Dubois and Blake Wheeler walk in the offseason and now lack proper depth in the lineup. Not much changed for the Flames and that's not really a good thing as they scored just 3.13 goals per game last season, which was in the bottom third of the league averages. I expect a close game here but 6.5 goals just seems like too much for these teams so let's ride with an under.
Pick: Jets & Flames Game Total Under 6.5 Goals (-118 on DraftKings)
Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Panthers released TE Jordan Matthews.
Matthews converted to tight end a few years ago and hasn’t made much noise at the position. The change has, however, likely kept him in the league for a few more seasons. He appeared in four games with the Panthers last year but didn’t record any stats on offense. The Panthers also released or waived WR Dax Milne, C Andrew Raym, and TE Colin Granger.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.