NHL Best Bets and Betting Picks: November 27th
We are now firmly in the holiday season and if you know what that means in the NHL world buckle up! It means these teams have enough track record to start identifying themselves and their rosters as they push into the dog days of the season. Over 75% of teams in playoff position post Thanksgiving make the dance historically so we really have a good idea of what to project moving forward. We hope of course this helps us make some dollars along the way too! In today's best bets you will find a pair of game total wagers and a value Money Line. If you like the rationale then tail the picks, if you don't feel free to fade as sometimes the best bets are the ones not taken!
- Season Record: 31-32-1
- Bankroll: -0.44 units
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**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.
NHL Best Bets for November 27
Washington Capitals at San Jose Sharks
The Capitals continue to be one of the more overachieving teams this season in the NHL as they have fought through bad analytical numbers to win games. I feel they probably win tonight too but that's not my target, its instead the game total and it going under. The Caps are under in 12 of 17 games this season and have gotten there by scoring just 2.41 goals per game the 2nd fewest in the league. You might be wondering who has the fewest goals then and that would be the Sharks with just 1.62 goals scored per game. The Sharks have gone under the total in 15 of 21 games this season. Add in the fact that the goaltending has been very good for Washington and trending better in San Jose the total of 6.5 goals just seems to large to me.
Pick: Capitals & Sharks Under 6.5 Goals (-135 on Caesars)
Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames
The Golden Knights have hit a snag this month of November thus far with 6 losses in the last 9 games but a team this good can't be held down for long and I think they break out of the slump here tonight. Their opponent in the Flames can be a tricky team to wager against as they are inconsistent but they are -12 in goal differential this season and are 3-4 straight up on home ice this season. Vegas on the other hand is a +19 and 6-3-1 on the road this season. They have the better roster and goaltender in this matchup too with Adin Hill projected to start with his 9-2-1 record and 1.97 GAA. Should be a tight game but value on the Golden Knights Money Line is just too good to pass up.
Pick: Vegas Golden Knights Money Line (-115 on BetMGM)
Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators
Most nights when betting the Florida Panthers it all comes down to which version you are going to get because there is last season's offensive juggernaut that peeks in on occasion and then another version that is just slow and gross to watch. I am of the opinion that tonight we see them go big with their injuries behind them and having Brandon Mountour, Aaron Ekblad and Sam Bennett all back in the lineup. As for the Senators, they live and die on offense this season scoring 3.69 goals per game to compensate allowing 3.48 goals per game. They have also gone over in 7 of 10 home games this season with a push so let's load up tonight for a goal scoring clinic!
Pick: Panthers & Senators Over 6.5 Goals (-130 on BetMGM)
Player News
Kyle Filipowski accumulated 21 points (9-of-21 FGs, 2-of-4 FTs), six rebounds, one assist, one block and one three-pointer in Sunday’s loss to the Warriors.
Two days removed from putting on a show with a 32-point effort against the Hornets, Filipowski was not as effective on Sunday. He still surpassed 20 points, but sometimes the Jazz forward/center was not as decisive as he needed to be offensively. Instead of making quick moves to take advantage of mismatches, Filipowski was too deliberate at times, thus eliminating whatever advantage he had. With Utah trading John Collins, there’s an opening in the starting lineup. While Filipowski may be a candidate, the same can be said for Brice Sensabaugh, who played so well in Salt Lake City that the Jazz shut him down before arriving in Las Vegas.
Cody Williams amassed 22 points (8-of-17 FGs, 5-of-6 FTs), eight rebounds, four assists, three steals and one three-pointer in Sunday’s loss to the Warriors.
Williams has surpassed 20 points in two straight games, a positive development for a player who struggled mightily as a rookie. However, the perimeter shot remains a work in progress. Williams was 1-of-6 from deep on Sunday, two nights after going 3-of-11 in the loss to the Hornets. He isn’t going to turn into a knockdown shooter overnight. Williams remains a player worth the risk in dynasty leagues, but managers in redraft leagues can afford to leave him on the board.
Will Richard tallied nine points (3-of-7 FGs, 2-of-2 FTs), six rebounds, there steals, one block and one three-pointer in Sunday’s win over the Jazz.
Richard was not as productive offensively as he was in Friday’s blowout loss to the Trail Blazers, but he once again provided value in multiple areas. The second-round pick out of Florida is in a similar position to Alex Toohey, with both yet to sign contracts with the Warriors. Not only does Golden State have two available two-way slots, but it also has multiple open standard contract slots. Some notable free agents are still available on the market, including restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga, so Richard may be in a holding pattern of sorts as the Warriors’ front office sorts things out.
Alex Toohey finished Sunday’s win over the Jazz with 15 points (4-of-11 FGs, 6-of-7 FTs), five rebounds, two assists, one steal and one three-pointer.
After getting blown out by Portland in their first game in Las Vegas, Toohey and the Warriors bounced back on Sunday. The second-round pick was solid, leading the Warriors’ starters in scoring and nearly filling the stat sheet. Toohey has yet to sign a contract, and with the Warriors still having work to do in free agency, he may have to wait a bit longer. Gabe Madsen was the true standout on Sunday, as he came off the bench to contribute 22 points and six three-pointers.
Yanic Konan Niederhauser finished Sunday’s win over the Bucks with two points (1-of-1 FGs), three rebounds, two steals and one blocked shot.
While Konan Niederhauser turned 22 in March, these early games in Las Vegas have reminded us that he’s still a bit of a project. The rookie notched his first made basket on Sunday, an alley-oop dunk, and he was also responsible for two steals. Konan Niederhauser will be more of an asset for dynasty leagues than redraft leagues, but he will have the opportunity to learn from Ivica Zubac and Brook Lopez next season.
Cam Christie produced 21 points (6-of-14 FGs, 6-of-7 FTs), three rebounds, three assists, one steal and three three-pointers in Sunday’s win over the Bucks.
Christie is one of the few players on the Clippers’ summer roster whose contract is guaranteed for the 2025-26 season. The second-round pick could not earn rotation minutes as a rookie, and it will be challenging to change that next season due to the Clippers’ perimeter depth. Christie shot 3-of-6 from beyond the arc against the Bucks, and he’ll need to be a consistent shooter to have any chance of providing tangible fantasy value.