NHL Best Bets and Betting Picks: December 4th
Welcome to a new week of NHL Best Bets as tonight in the NHL as we have 6 games around the league! These slates are fantastic from a pure hockey standpoint but also for bettors as the lines and money are spread around by the public yielding better value for us! That is the theme for some of these picks and in today's article you will find a Puck Line, Money Line, and a pair of game totals that are ready to turn into winners! If you like the rationale then tail the picks, if you don't feel free to fade as sometimes the best bets are the ones not taken!
- Season Record: 38-37-1
- Bankroll: -0.47 units
Follow me on twitter @jwaggs10
**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.
NHL Best Bets for December 4
Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers
One of the best long time rivalries in hockey is renewed again tonight after both teams just played on Saturday. This one will be in eastern PA though but I don't think it matters all that much for the Flyers as they are 5-7 straight up on home ice. The Penguins have been better on the road as well with a 6-5 record and scoring 3.64 goals per game, which is the 3rd highest in the league. All things point Pens in this contest including the deeper stats as the Pens rank 8th in Corsi For % and 2nd in xGF/60. The line is a nice value at around -120 on most books, not a number you often get when paying the Penguins tax, so let's ride the road team on the Money Line tonight.
Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins Money Line (-115 on BetMGM)
Seattle Kraken at Montreal Canadiens
Betting the over is a crowd pleaser in NHL betting and tonight I am happy to give the people what they want! On the surface this game won't be appealing to most but there will be some goals as each team has a good track record to back a game total going over. The Habs allow 3.54 goals per game the 7th most in the NHL this season, the Kraken allow 3.4 goals a game and that's right behind Montreal as 10th most. Their offenses on the other hand aren't as consistent but they do have scoring pieces and the teams have gone a combined 16-11 to the over this season based on their home/road splits. The number is also helpful here as the bookmakers have just auto locked most games at 6.5 but tonight its just 6! That difference is massive and one that I will be jumping at tonight.
Pick: Kraken & Canadiens Over 6 Goals (-115 on BetMGM)
St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights
I have been banging on the drum saying to everyone that would listen that the Blues were frauds! Well things are starting to unravel for St. Louis as they've lost 3 of their last 5 games and got smoked in some of those losses, not pretty at all! They've also fallen to 5-8 on the road at this point and have gone into the negatives in goal differential. On the flip side the Golden Knights at home are a juggernaut at 9-2-1 on the season with a +23 goal differential. Looks like it'll be Logan Thompson in net for Vegas and while he's not Adin Hill he has allowed just 2 goals in the past 2 games and the Blues aren't scary anymore. Give me the 60-minute line for a win in regulation but I wouldn't be mad about anyone taking the Puck Line at plus money either.
Pick: Vegas Golden Knights 60-Min Line (-140 on Caeasrs)
Player News
Jamal Murray lit up the Thunder with 25 points (9-of-19 FGs), eight rebounds, seven assists, one block, two three-pointers and five turnovers in Game 6 on Thursday.
Murray was a late addition to the injury report with an illness, but he played through it, and it didn’t prevent him from having a big night. He scored 11 points in the first quarter and had nine points in the decisive third quarter to help Denver keep its season alive. Murray has been able to step up in big moments in the playoffs throughout his career, and they’ll need another big game from him in Game 7 on Sunday to advance to the conference finals.
Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets with 29 points (9-of-14 FGs, 10-of-12 FTs), 14 rebounds, eight assists, two steals, one block and one three-pointers in a 119-107 win over the Thunder in Game 6 on Thursday.
Unsurprisingly, Jokic was dominant to help keep Denver’s season alive. His 44-point effort in Game 5 wasn’t enough, and while he didn’t match that scoring total in this game, he was still able to have a big night. He also finally got past the six-assist mark, which he had done three times this series without surpassing it. That means that Jokic finally got some help from his teammates. Game 7 will be on Sunday in OKC. Expect Jokic to have a monster performance.
Nuggets interim head coach David Adelman said that concern about Aaron Gordon’s hamstring is high after their Game 6 win over the Thunder on Thursday.
They’ll have two days off before Game 7 on Sunday, so hopefully that will be enough time for Gordon to recover after he tweaked his left hamstring with less than two minutes left in the fourth quarter. It will likely take a significant injury to keep Gordon off the floor for a Game 7, but if that happens, Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther would all have to step up to help fill the void.
Christian Braun stuffed the stat sheet on Thursday with 23 points (8-of-14 FGs), 11 rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and three three-pointers in Game 6 against the Thunder.
It took the best playoff performance of Braun’s career, but Denver was able to defend homecourt and force a Game 7. Braun set a new playoff career high for points and contributed value across the board to help keep the Nuggets’ season alive. They’ll head to OKC for the final game of this series on Sunday. Braun likely won’t repeat this type of performance, but they’ll need him at his best once again.
Julian Strawther provided a boost off the bench with 15 points (4-of-8 FGs), two rebounds and three three-pointers in Game 6 against the Thunder on Thursday.
Denver has been trying to find a solution for who to play with both Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook struggling. Well, Strawther stepped up to help force a Game 7. He has only played more than 10 minutes during this postseason in blowouts, but he was able to set a new playoff career high for points in the win. Expect Strawther to continue to play a large reserve role on Sunday as Denver looks to advance to the conference finals.
Jalen Williams turned in a full line on Thursday with six points (3-of-16 FGs), seven rebounds, 10 assists, three steals and one block in Game 6 against the Nuggets.
JDub was able to contribute a well-rounded stat line, but he wasn’t able to have much success as a scorer. That has been the story for most of this series; Williams was great in Game 3 and was efficient in Game 2, though they didn’t need him to score much in that blowout win. However, between Games 1, 4, 5 and 6, Williams has shot below 40 percent from the field in each of them and below 30 percent in three of them. He needs to continue to find other ways to impact the game, which he has done, but they truly need a better scoring performance out of him in Game 7 on Sunday.