Age really is just a number when it comes to hockey. Great players can often play into their 40’s with guys like Jaromir Jagr managing to play into their mid-40’s. On the other end of the spectrum, it’s not uncommon for teenagers to do great things in the NHL. With perhaps the exception of a rookie running back in the NFL or the rare generational talent like LeBron in the NBA, hockey is arguably the sport where rookies generate the most fantasy value.
In the last five seasons, at least one rookie forward has scored at least 60 points. Let’s take a look at those high scoring rookies to try and identify some common traits that might apply to this year’s crop.
In 2013-2014 it was the first overall pick from that summer’s draft, Nathan MacKinnon, who ended up being the only rookie to top 60 points. A defenseman went first in this year’s draft, and while Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin is an exciting prospect, it’s second overall pick Andrei Svechnikov who is most analogous to MacKinnon from this year’s draft. The 18-year-old figures to immediately slot into the top six, if not the top line, and on the power play for a Carolina team that struggled to score goals last year. Svechnikov is by far the most bankable fantasy asset from this year’s draft.
The following year saw Mark Stone and Johnny Gaudreau tied for the rookie lead in points with Filip Forsberg just one point behind them. Forsberg had the pedigree you might expect as he was the 11th overall pick in 2012, though he didn’t play his first full season until the 2014-2015 season. Stone and Gaudreau decidedly did not have the pedigree as they were sixth and fourth round picks, respectively. Stone averaged more than a point per game in the AHL in the season prior to his first NHL campaign. Gaudreau played out his college career at Boston College, and he absolutely dominated in his final season there with 80 points in 40 games. He joined the Flames the following season.
Picking the next Mark Stone is difficult given that not a lot of sixth-rounders end up leading all rookies in scoring in the first full NHL season. For that reason, we’ll ignore the sixth-round pick part and simply look for a guy that topped a point per game at the AHL level last season. Montreal’s Nikita Scherbak, a late first round pick in 2014, fits that bill as he scored 30 points in 26 games in the AHL last season. Scherbak has some similarity to Stone as a tall winger at 6 ft 2 in, though he’ll need to fill out a bit as he ages to match Stone’s size. Montreal certainly isn’t loaded with forwards, so there’s some opportunity for Scherbak. We should point out that Scherbak played 26 games with the Habs last season, so technically he’s not a rookie. But screw the NHL’s technical definition of a rookie.
As for guys who dominated at the NCAA level this season and could be comparable to Gaudreau, Dylan Sikura and Ryan Donato come closest. Neither averaged the insane two points per game that Gaudreau did in his final NCAA season, but both Sikura and Donato were around a point and a half per game. Donato could start the season on Boston’s third line, and Sikura could start on Chicago’s third. Sikura was slightly better in college last year, but Donato flashed some potential in 12 NHL games last year with five goals and four assists. Both are names to know.
In 2015-2016 Artemi Panarin was the only rookie to top 60 points, and he went well beyond that with 77 points. Panarin took a different track to the NHL than the guys discussed above as he signed an entry-level contract with Chicago coming from the KHL. Panarin was 24 when he made his NHL debut, and he was coming off of a 62-point season in 54 games in the KHL the year prior.
The only possible comparison to Panarin this season would be Sergei Shumakov, who is leaving the KHL to join the Caps. Other KHL players like Ilya Kovalchuk and Valeri Nichushkin are going from the KHL to the NHL this season, but both of those players have played in the NHL before and are not rookies. Shumakov scored 40 points in 47 KHL games last season, and his competition in Washington is someone like Andre Burakovksy, who disappointed last season. Shumakov is on a two-way contract, which could be an indicator that he won’t make the team out of camp. But he’s simply the most comparable player to Panarin for the purposes of this exercise.
In 2016-2017 there were four rookies who topped 60 points, and three of them came from the same team. Consecutive first round, top 10 picks for the Maple Leafs topped 60 points in their rookie season: William Nylander, Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. Joining them was the guy who went right behind Matthews in the 2016 draft, Patrik Laine.
The top two picks went to Buffalo and Carolina this season, and each team selected a center in last year’s draft who could join Dahlin and Svechnikov, respectively to give them a Toronto-lite version of a young core. Buffalo selected Casey Mittelstadt eighth overall, and Middelstadt could well be their second line center to start the season. Buffalo has added wingers like Jeff Skinner and Conor Sheary, and they have 2016 top 10 pick Alexander Nylander coming as well. Hopefully that will provide the Sabres enough depth to allow Mittelstadt to play with solid linemates. Carolina selected Martin Necas 12th, and he could also end up being a second line center to start the season. Jordan Staal’s line tends to draw tough defensive assignments, which could leave Necas line to fill a fantasy-friendly offensive role.
Last season Matthew Barzal easily led all rookies in scoring and topped 80 points. Barzal was a first-round pick in 2015 but did not make his debut immediately, obviously. Also topping 60 points were Clayton Keller, a top 10 pick in 2016, and Yanni Gourde. Gourde is by far the most random name we’ve discussed. Gourde went undrafted, but his production far exceeded expectations in his time with Tampa’s AHL affiliate.
We won’t try to come up with an undrafted rookie comparable to Gourde because we’re not Ms. Cleo or anything. However, if Austin Czarnik hadn’t played 49 games for Boston in the 2016-2017 season, he’d be the closest comp we could come up with.
The best comparison to Barzal may be Elias Pettersson. Pettersson was Vancouver’s first round pick in 2017, and he should slide into a second line center role on a bad, Sedin-less Canucks team, which is not unlike the situation Barzal found himself in last year. Pettersson scored 75 points in 57 games in the Swedish Hockey League last season, which was a record for an under-20 player in that league.
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