Welcome to another season of Fantasy Hockey! When it comes to fantasy hockey draft tips with the season right around the corner, it’s time to dig deep and look at some players that we need to stay away from. The term “bust” is thrown around a lot in fantasy, but for the purpose of this article, we are going to look at players that are going too early and won’t return value at their current average draft position. 

 

(Please note that average draft position (ADP) is as of September 24th and is based on NHL.com positional ranking)

2022 Fantasy Hockey Busts

Jack Eichel - Vegas Golden Knights - Center

ADP: C12

MY ADP: C25

I had Jack Eichel as a bust last season and he’s back here this year, but for a different reason. Last year, we really weren’t sure when/if he would play hockey, but he did, and now I just don’t think he’s going to be very good. He’s the 12th center off the board, and I can’t get behind that. Vegas will struggle this season, and Eichel’s health will still be a concern. Max Pacioretty and Evgeni Dadonov aren’t in town anymore and Mark Stone has been plagued by injuries over the last season. Couple that with the loss of Robin Lehner for the season, Vegas could be fighting for a lottery pick and not a playoff spot. Eichel is just a player I want nothing to do with, especially at his current ADP.

Joe Pavelski - Dallas Stars - Right Wing

ADP: F51

MY ADP: F65

It’s remarkable what Joe Pavelski was able to do last season, but I’m having a tough time thinking he’s going to do it a second time. Joe turned 38 years old this summer, and at some point, he will slow down. He set a career-high with 81 points while taking 216 shots on goal. The last time he took over 200 shots was back in 2017-18 when he was still a part of the San Jose Sharks. He’s capable of still being a very good player, but it’s unrealistic to expect him to surpass his total from last season or come close to it. 

Dallas was in the bottom half in shots per game and their lineup leaves much to be desired. Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are getting up in age, and we can’t expect Pavelski to do it alone. It’s likely that he finishes with about 55-points this season, and that isn’t worth being taken in the top 100 overall.

Logan Thompson - Vegas Golden Knights - Goalie

ADP: G23

MY ADP: G35

Not only did the Vegas Golden Knights get worse in the offseason, but they will also be without goaltender Robin Lehner for the entire season. Logan Thompson is being taken as the 23rd goalie off the board, and that is concerning. There’s this expectation that Vegas is going to compete for a playoff spot, but they are nowhere close to being a decent team. Their defense is fine, but their offense is a mess and betting on a rookie goalie to lead the way is quite the risk. Not to mention, the Golden Knights went out and traded for Adin Hill, who isn’t exactly a superstar, but he’s going to compete for one of the two goalie spots on the main team. 

Thompson is also wavier exempt, so he can be sent down without the risk of being claimed. I don’t know why anyone would want to invest a pick in a goalie that could end up in the AHL to start the season, but here we are. He has 20 career NHL games under his belt, and while he hasn’t been terrible in those starts, I’m just not ready to take him over someone like Pavel Francouz who is going off the board after him.

Evan Bouchard - Edmonton Oilers - Defense

ADP: D20

MY ADP: D28

I get the appeal with wanting to draft Evan Bouchard. He’s a young defenceman with a ton of skill, but he’s not great defensively, doesn’t see top power play minutes, and doesn’t see a ton of ice time. He played under 20-minutes per game last season and I don’t expect that number to increase much heading into this year. His 43 points last season were nice, but Darnell Nurse was just given a nice big contract and Tyson Barrie is still part of that team. It’s foolish to draft a defenceman who isn’t seeing top power play minutes and that doesn’t command a ton of ice time. He could surpass 40-points this season again, but outside of that, you aren’t getting much.

Alexandar Georgiev - Colorado Avalanche - Goalie

ADP: G16

MY ADP: G25

I talked about how I liked Pavel Francouz as a sleeper and that he could take over the starting job from Alexander Georgiev early in the season. Georgiev isn’t terrible, but he hasn’t done enough to just be handed the starting job. He’s moving to a really good team, but even in New York-- a team that was very well structured on both ends of the ice-- he just couldn’t be consistent. His career numbers are not great and he’s never started more than 32 games in a season. At best, he spits starts with Francouz, so there is no way I’m taking him as the 16th goalie off the board. If he’s you’re top goalie on your fantasy team, you’re in deep trouble. 

Morgan Rielly - Toronto Maple Leafs - Defense

ADP: D11

MY ADP: D22

I’ll be honest-- I was wrong about Morgan Reilly last season. He was part of my list of players that weren’t going to exceed value and he did the opposite. He put up 68 points and finished with 211 shots on goal. Do I think he can do it again? Maybe, but the Leafs aren’t a better team than last season and the Atlantic Division is as tough as it’s ever been. Reilly can rack up points, but if he doesn’t do that, he’s not going to do anything else. He doesn’t hit, doesn’t block shots and I’m not sold on him getting over 200 shots on goal again this season. He’s being taken as the 11th defenceman off the board, and that’s just too early for my liking when you take into account all the question marks surrounding him and the team. I’ll gladly let him burn me for the second year in a row. 

Nazem Kadri - Calgary Flames - Center

ADP: C17

MY ADP: C30

I love that Nazem Kadri won a Stanley Cup and got paid, but expecting him to repeat what he did last season is asking for quite a bit. Prior to last season, his career high in points was 55 (2017-18), a 32-point difference. He took a decent amount of shots, but even that could easily regress. Calgary has some good players and they finished 3rd in shots per game, but Kadri is 31 years old and he’s always been a good supporting player. He’s not a point-per-game player, not at this point in his career. He’s probably going to rack up his points, but I expect him to finish closer to 60-points, which isn’t bad but doesn’t merit going off the board as the 17th-best centreman. He’s a good player, but not top-50.

 


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