Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints -6.0
Games Total: 52
Drew Brees needs 201 passing yards to break Peyton Manning’s NFL career record, and everyone will be shocked if he doesn’t do it in this game.Josh Doctson may be someone to keep an eye on early. He is listed as questionable after not practicing all week, but if Washington gets anything out of its third year wide receiver, that could go a long way towards keeping up with the Saints. Doctson has just five receptions on 13 targets despite leading Washington’s wide receivers in snaps in all three games this season.
The Saints come into this game fourth in the NFL at 418.3 yards per game and third in scoring at 34.3 PPG.
The Offense has been relatively well-balanced, averaging 313.8 passing yards (sixth in the NFL) and 104.5 rushing yards (18th).
They may be even more balanced with the return of Mark Ingram from a four-game suspension.
Alvin Kamara is on pace for 224 rushing attempts and 140 receptions after he had 120 carries and 81 receptions as a rookie in 2017. Kamara’s pace probably has to slow at some point, but there is no guarantee Ingram gets as much work as he did last season.
The Saints’ passing game has been decidedly unbalanced after a decade of Drew Brees spreading the ball around to several receivers. Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara were tied for fifth in the NFL in Targets coming into Week 5 with 44. Thomas has caught an insane 95 percent of his targets for 445 yards and a touchdown. Kamara has caught 35 passes for 336 yards and one touchdown.
Thomas and Kamara have accounted for 54 percent of Drew Brees ’s targets this season. Ted Ginn is third on the team with 22 targets, but he is out Monday with a knee injury.
Rookie third-round pick Tre’Quan Smith will likely replace Ginn as Drew Brees ’s deep threat, though Cameron Meredith could see some more snaps and targets as well.
Adrian Peterson and Alvin Kamara each have 56 carries this season, but Peterson has rushed for 39 fewer yards.
Chris Thompson leads the Redskins with 21 targets, and he has caught 20 of them.
Pre-Game Props
1. The last non-kneeling, offensive play of the 1st Quarter is a passing play (we'll leave this open until the 2:00 mark) (2.5x yes/2.5x no)
YES. My answer to this question will always be Yes so long as the payouts are the same. Teams just throw more than they run, even though we could see New Orleans go more run-heavy with Mark Ingram back.
2. J. Crowder (WAS) and M. Thomas (NO) combine to record 4 or more receptions in the 1st Quarter (2.3x yes/3.2x no)
NO. Jamison Crowder is averaging three receptions per game this season, so he might get a couple more catches if Josh Doctson is out. Michael Thomas is averaging 10.5 receptions per game, though he had just four catches in Week 4. I would probably say No even if the payouts were even.
3. D. Brees (NO) or A. Smith (WAS) complete 6 or more passes on a single drive in the 1st Quarter (2.7x yes/2.3x no)
NO. No one likes a 12-play drive that ends in a field goal as much as Alex Smith, and Drew Brees is capable of matriculating the ball down the field with short passes as well. That being said, six pass completions in one drive is a lot. Alex Smith only has 66 completions in 12 quarters, so six completions in one drive in one quarter feels like a lot to ask for with very little payoff.
4. The first offensive play of the 1st Quarter is an incomplete pass or gains 8 or more yards (3.5x yes/2.0x no)
NO. Drew Brees is tops in the NFL in completion percentage at 75.8 percent, while Alex Smith is eighth at 68.8 percent. An incompletion probably isn’t happening. Even so, eight yards is a big ask, and that doesn’t consider the odds that one of these four talented running backs starts the game with a carry.
5. C. Thompson (WAS) records 1 or more receptions on WAS opening drive (3.6x yes/1.9x no)
YES. It certainly seems like Chris Thompson catches at least one pass on every drive. Thompson had just one reception last week, but he probably needs to be involved early and often if Washington is going to keep up with New Orleans’ offense. Perhaps more importantly, I want to chase at least one sizeable payout in my pre-game props.
6. A. Kamara (NO) gains 15 or more total offensive yards on NO opening drive (2.0x yes/3.0x no)
NO. It might not seem like it, but it is possible New Orleans goes three-and-out. Kamara has been a huge part of the Saints’ offense to this point, but we could see a healthy dose of Mark Ingram right off the bat. I suspect the overwhelming majority of people will say YES for this, so I like the idea of going against the grain with a decent payout.
Player News
Panthers released TE Jordan Matthews.
Matthews converted to tight end a few years ago and hasn’t made much noise at the position. The change has, however, likely kept him in the league for a few more seasons. He appeared in four games with the Panthers last year but didn’t record any stats on offense. The Panthers also released or waived WR Dax Milne, C Andrew Raym, and TE Colin Granger.
Dolphins released LS Blake Ferguson.
The team also waived CB Ryan Cooper Jr., DT Neil Farrell and OL Chasen Hines. Ferguson has been the team’s long snapper for five seasons and earned a three-year contract extension just before the 2023 season. He should be able to find work snapping footballs farther than the average snap elsewhere in the league.
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.